MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I am really hoping it's at least Hawley+5. Claire put out that anti-male video a while back and she also was once of those eye-roll worthy Game of Thrones watchers who claimed they'd stop watching because of the Sansa-Ramsay incident.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I am really hoping it's at least Hawley+5. Claire put out that anti-male video a while back and she also was once of those eye-roll worthy Game of Thrones watchers who claimed they'd stop watching because of the Sansa-Ramsay incident.

Good that plot line was disgusting. It happened to a different character in the books, it was solely done for shock value, and the plot to get her into the scenario made no sense

I think Season 5 in general was trash. The whole Jeyne Poole thing in the books was superior, and so was everything else in AFFC and ADwD.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I am really hoping it's at least Hawley+5. Claire put out that anti-male video a while back and she also was once of those eye-roll worthy Game of Thrones watchers who claimed they'd stop watching because of the Sansa-Ramsay incident.

Good that plot line was disgusting. It happened to a different character in the books, it was solely done for shock value, and the plot to get her into the scenario made no sense

You're completely right.

I think Season 5 in general was trash. The whole Jeyne Poole thing in the books was superior, and so was everything else in AFFC and ADwD.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I wonder if Claire is gonna start watching Game of Thrones again to pass the time when she loses. Although Season 8 is probably gonna suck massively. I feel sorry for her.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

I was right! Time to buy myself a Missouri themed dessert as a reward. Any suggestions guys?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We need more polls from Missouri. Hawley must be surging over McCaskill. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by +5 at least.

I was right! Time to buy myself a Missouri themed dessert as a reward. Any suggestions guys?

I have none, but you were right not only about Missouri, but also about North Dakota and Indiana (though your margins were somewhat off). You were also correct in predicting a Blackburn win by double digits in Tennessee (though she won by 11%, as compared to the 14% you predicted). Hawley won by 6%, which was much wider than I had predicted.

Yep, btw check your PMs for a link to a place I'm inviting you to

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Yet another cold Friday night here in NYC and I decided to stay home today. Took some time to make a Akin to Hawley swing map based on raw percentages (not margins). For instance, if Akin got 50% in one county and Hawley got 62% in that same county six years later, I count it as a 12% swing. If Akin got 34% in a county and Hawley got 57% in that same county six years later, I count it as a 23% swing. I'm not factoring Claire's percentages into this scenario.

Light Red shows a swing to Hawley from 0% to <10%. Medium Red shows a swing to Hawley from 10% to <20%. Dark Red shows a swing to Hawley of over 20%.

There were a handful of counties where the swing to Hawley was over 30%. Mercer County, near the Iowa border, was one. St. Louis City and St. Louis County swung by under 5%. The bootheel, the border with Iowa, and areas far from cities in general swung the hardest, but Hawley outperformed Akin everywhere, even in urban/suburban areas. It just goes to show what rural trends combined with candidate quality can do. I'll see if I can make a swing map comparing Hawley's percentages to Trump's 2016 performance, to show how much of a better fit Claire was than Hillary. That map might be entirely blue in the same way that this map was entirely red.


Edit:



Ok, here is the Hillary to Claire swing map. Claire only outperformed Hillary in much of these counties by single digits, and in the vast majority of these single digit outperformances, she only outperformed Hillary by <5%. There was even one county in the bootheel where she did 0.1% worse than Hillary in terms of percentage. She managed to outperform Hillary by double digits in counties surrounding St. Louis, though only outperformed her by single digits in St. Louis County and St. Louis City.  In St. Genevieve she almost outperformed Hillary by 15%.

I considered making separate colors for the 0-5% and 5-10% range, but decided I'd rather compare it to the above map. Claire didn't outperform Hillary by over 20% in any county, so this map was a rather simple affair.