Trump warns Israel: Stop announcing new settlements (user search)
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  Trump warns Israel: Stop announcing new settlements (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump warns Israel: Stop announcing new settlements  (Read 1722 times)
Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
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Posts: 22,632
Austria


« on: February 02, 2017, 07:07:48 PM »

The Jewish state will die when a two state solution dies, and Jews are overwhelmed in their own "single state" by Palestinian population growth.
This myth won't die, will it?
How is it wrong?
Arab birthrate (outside Gaza) going down, Jewish birthrate going up (mainly due to insane Haredi population growth). It's clear Israel in 100 years will look like absolutely nothing we know, but it's not at all clear it will not be a Jewish state.

So in the future Jewish Israel will be majority Haredi? Do you think secular Jewish people will be ok with that once they start imposing their lifestyle all over the place? Also, I've heard Haredi men don't work... how will Israel support itself with such a large nonworking population. Economic disaster.
These trends never last.  Certainly not long enough for "economic disaster"... I'd imagine if a Haredi family has 7 kids... a good 2 or 3 probably won't grow up to live that lifestyle.  They'll be moderates and secularists.

And during that time it might be that wealthier, secular, liberal families have more children.  Attitudes about children and the future change.  

Demographers in the 1930s were convinced America's population would peak around 1960 at like 140 million people and then begin to fall forever after that.  BOOM.  That small generation born in the 20s and 30s birthed 75 million babies in 20 years and reversed what had been a decline in birth rates that began in the early 19th century.

Then that huge generation became the least child bearing generation in history.

The extremes, for many reasons (many of those debatable), tend to even out.

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Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,632
Austria


« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2017, 07:35:41 PM »

These trends never last.  Certainly not long enough for "economic disaster"... I'd imagine if a Haredi family has 7 kids... a good 2 or 3 probably won't grow up to live that lifestyle.  They'll be moderates and secularists.
It's generally only baalei tshuva (those who weren't raised observant) who have two or more kids who go off the derech, and even that is the exception, not the rule. Kids getting off the derech with "frum from birth" parents isn't too common. It sometimes happens, of course, but certainly not at the rate you describe, and there's no reason to assume it will be different in the future. You also have to remember these kids are trapped in their world. They don't know anything different. Their "skills" are worthless on the job market. And they look down upon the lifestyle of the non-observant.
I guess the weak point might be that there will be a point where they can no longer be "trapped".  Economic realities will require more interaction with the outside world.  And that will change people (it might make them more protective... it might have the opposite impact).

I just think if these kinds of trends had been going on forever and were unstoppable.. the world would be much different than it is currently.  Israel is going to change.  And I imagine the secular liberal Jews won't be that happy with it... I just don't expect there to be like 50 million Haredi Jews packed into Israel where the men aren't working.


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