Trump will hold all of his 2016 states?

[SN2903]

I think he does in the end and adds Nevada, New Hampshire and maybe Minnesota. Wisconsin is going to be really close though I could see it going Dem in 2020 but I think Michigan is fools gold for democrats. It's a great state for Trump like PA.

[SN2903]

Since FDR, only two presidents have been able to do that, Nixon and Reagan in their respective election campaigns (72 and 84), but those were massive land slides in which only one state and DC went blue. I have a hard time believing he will do this since pulling off a feat such only really happens during landslides and the fact that HRC was one of the worst candidates the democrats could have put forth

This. I think the Democrats will win as long as they put forward a candidate with less baggage than Hillary. I also think Hillary's decision to support the 2002 resolution authorizing military force in Iraq was the most damaging to her political ambitions. I could see her having won in 2008 or last year, and Kerry having won in 2004, if they had not voted for that. It was arguably their biggest vulnerability.

Yes Hillary is a warmonger. Trump campaigned on largely staying out of war.

[SN2903]

He loses MI, PA 53-47% and loses WI by a smaller 52-48 lead, he won't win the Midwest.

Yes he will. The only state I think he may lose is Wisconsin. I think he wins MI, PA and possibly MN.

[SN2903]

He will lose Michigan


I would say in 2020 its more likely he wins MN or NH than MI

Maybe I still think the democrats are going overboard about MI. I think at the end of the day you have to have a candidate that BEATS him there and the democratic party is moving culturally away from where the midwest is. Minnesota is def moving toward a red state.

[SN2903]

No.

Which ones do you think he holds and which ones do you think he loses?

[SN2903]

It'll be hard, I say most likely not, but a much higher chance of it than Dems give credit. He only has to win one of MI, PA, and WI in order to win holding everything else. That's why Dems need to push hard in FL, NC, and AZ. He'll very likely win IA and OH again.

I'm looking over the 2016 WI exit polls. There are some things that jump out at me:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/wisconsin/president

• Obama's favorability was 52%. Clinton's favorability was 42%.
• Trump's favorability was 35%.
• Voters who found both Trump and Clinton to be unfavorable broke 60% to 23% for Trump.
• 33% of voters found Clinton to be honest and trustworthy, vs 36% for Trump
• 52% believed Clinton was qualified for the job, vs 35% for Trump(!?)
• 65% of voters were bothered by Clinton's private email server, and they broke for Trump 71% to 22%
• 71% of voters were bothered by Trump's treatment of women, but 34% of them voted Trump
• 14% of voters made up their mind in the final week, and went for Trump 59% to 30%
• 25% of voters made up their mind in the final month, and went for Trump 57% to 34%
• Only 42% of voters strongly favored their candidate of choice, and Clinton won those voters 50% to 47%
• Candidate quality that mattered the most: Clinton overwhelmingly won every response except "can bring change," which Trump won 84% to 12%
• Trump won voters aged 18-24 by 2 points, while Clinton won voters aged 25-29 by 9 points, and voters aged 30-39 by 21 points (?!)

What are my takeaways? A lot of people in Wisconsin voted Trump who had severe reservations about him, and didn't even think he was qualified to be President. They did so because they were angry at the status quo, strongly disliked Hillary Clinton, and were swayed by events in the final weeks leading up to the election. Had the Democratic nominee been someone other than Hillary Clinton, that candidate would have beaten Trump easily.

This was a perfect storm for Trump. Now, there will be some things working in his favor - IF Wisconsinites believe the economy has improved for them, and they are more optimistic about their future. Incumbency will work in Trump's favor if that's the case. However, I think it would take a miracle for fundamentals to be good enough for Trump to retain the state. He will be just as unfavorable as he was in 2016. Possibly more so.

I realize it's a mistake to make too much of a narrative out of this data. And doubly so to make too much of anecdotal evidence. But it looks to me like, even with very strong fundamentals, Trump is not winning WI. In 2020, this state is going left of the popular vote. Possibly well left of the popular vote.

You can't run on change when you're the incumbent.
You can't run against Hillary Clinton when Hillary Clinton isn't on the ballot.
You can't win with 35% approval and 35% believing you're qualified, unless your opponent is really, really, awful.

Keep thinking that. He absolutely can run on change when he's an incumbent. The establishment of both parties still don't like him. He can still run against the democratic party which is moving farther and farther left. Trump will get millions of more votes than 2016 because many people in the middle were scared of his lack of experience.