Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Ferguson97]

Trump 45%
Haley 40%
DeSantis 10%
Vivek 5%

[Ferguson97]

68% of Iowa caucus-goers think Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.

Obama won this state by nearly 10 points in 2008.

[Ferguson97]

AP Results/Votecast.

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-iowa-election-2024-results

As I understand it Votecast is a large poll conducted by the AP to replace their entrance poll. some early releases

- 97% White
- 64% rural
- 46% White Evangelical
- 57% oppose continued Ukrainian aid.
- 65% support continued Israeli aid.
- 62% identify as MAGA
- 35% think Joe Biden was legitimately elected president.
 

"How stupid are the people of Iowa?"

Well, given how high the bold are, you're not wrong...

Explain how the election was stolen.

[Ferguson97]

AP calls it for Trump.

[Ferguson97]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

[Ferguson97]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

[Ferguson97]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

Caucuses are a form of voter disenfranchisement. Why should voting be a circus? Just fill in the bubble/press the button, and be done with it.

[Ferguson97]

Deeply unserious state.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1747074884566450662

[Ferguson97]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1747078484407533847

[Ferguson97]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

[Ferguson97]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

[Ferguson97]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim is the frontrunner. I know what you are insinuating, and I am not voting for Tammy Murphy.

[Ferguson97]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

[Ferguson97]

Vivek out

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1747111796266201564?s=46

[Ferguson97]

Here is an crazy stat that shows you how much more non religious the nation is getting. In 2016 about 36% of Iowa GOP caucus goers were non-evangelical and now that number is up to 46%

I don’t think this statistic is necessarily proof of that. There were two competitive caucuses in 2016. Only the Republicans had one this year. I imagine that percentage dropped because a lot of Democrats and left leaning Independent caucuses with the Republicans this year.

[Ferguson97]

Trump was playing the Phantom of the Opera theme at his watch party, lol. I always wonder how the coal miners and corn farmers in his crowds interpret his love for lavish Broadway musicals, celebrity gossip, fashion, and "big beautiful boys." He truly missed his calling as a sassy elderly gay man.

He’s such a ridiculous person, you genuinely couldn’t write a fictional character as contradictory as him.