GA SEN Runoff (CNN/SSRS): Warnock 52-48 LV, 51-44 RV

[Ferguson97]

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30% of whites is the rule for Democrats in Georgia, right? (Along with 30% of the electorate being Black?)

[Ferguson97]

I briefly tuned in to CNN last night to see if they would talk about this poll, and they did, but did it in the exact way I expected: "how is this race still so close for Warnock!?" Ignoring that a four point win in Georgia, an incredibly polarized and inelastic state, would be the most significant win for a Democrat in decades in the state, since f***ing Zell Miller.

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

2016 has ensured the Democratic base never gets complacent again.

The 2021 elections suggest otherwise as well as some elections in individual states from this year, namely New York, of course.

You're talking about NJ and VA governors races right? I think that loss/near loss were due to persuasion of independents rather than democrat complacency.