Early Voting thread.

[Ferguson97]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

How? That would make it a neutral environment.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Very low turnout = good for Rs

Low turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Ds? (given that Ds are the high-trust party)

Average turnout = pure tossup

High turnout = good for Ds

Very high turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Rs?

[Ferguson97]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

Look it’s not complicated. The polls are right when they show something that suits my priors, and the polls are wrong when they show something that doesn’t confirm my priors. What’s not to understand?

[Ferguson97]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

Look it’s not complicated. The polls are right when they show something that suits my priors, and the polls are wrong when they show something that doesn’t confirm my priors. What’s not to understand?

Well, the person that liked your post is literally that person

Everyone is like this to some extent, I'm guilty of this as well sometimes.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats have a turnout lead in Arizona right now, with Republicans lacking a lot compared to 2018. Who knows if this is a turnout issue or if more Republicans are just going to vote election day compared to 2018 because of Trump's mail nonsense.

Yeah I think that early/mail-in comparisons aren't necessarily good or bad for either party, and comparing them to previous cycles makes little sense because 2018 was pre-pandemic and before VBM was politicized. And 2020 was a presidential as opposed to a midterm, and VBM was much more widespread. So VBM will be higher than 2018 but much lower than 2020. 

[Ferguson97]

Anecdotal, but I'm working with GOTV in Nevada and there were lots of people reporting bad weather.

[Ferguson97]

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

[Ferguson97]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

And these rankings are purely based on EV data?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1586312003722756101

Yeah, folks better mentally prepare themselves for Dr. Oz to be up by 30 points on election night.

Other folks better prepare themselves when all the mail-in ballots are counted and it ends with Fetterman winning by 2% so they can claim it's another stolen election

[Ferguson97]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

Lmao

[Ferguson97]

Isn't 2022 the first time that Nevada is doing an all-VBM election? I feel like that alone makes comparisons to 2018 somewhat silly.

[Ferguson97]

Here's what the models say based on the vote so far (minus those rurals):

---If both parties were to hold 90 percent of their bases and tie among indies, the Dem candidate would win 48.9-46.4.

---If the Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base than Dems and indies are tied, it’s 46.9-46.4, Dems.

---If Repubs win indies by 5, and bases hold, it’s 48.2-46.8, Dems.

--If Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base and win indies by 5, it’s 48.8-46.2, GOP.

---If Repubs win indies by 10, and bases hold, it’s 47.8-47.5, Dems.

---If Repubs have a 5 percent base advantage and win indies by 10, it’s 49.1-45.9 GOP.

Absolutely nuts that Laxalt could win independents by 10 and still lose

[Ferguson97]

8 days from election, Georgia EV

2018: 1.35M (63.3% white, 32.4% black)
2020: 3.02M (61.9% white, 30.7% black)
2022: 1.65M (62.2% white, 32.5% black)

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1587122442996256772

% share of turnout was lower for both white and Black in 2020, I assume that was due to turnout from Hispanic/Asians?

[Ferguson97]

TITANIUM TILT D NEVADA

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588187392501915651

If Fetterman ends up winning by 5% or more, the absolute panic/elation (depending on your party) over this race is going to look so funny in hindsight.

[Ferguson97]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

I mean that literally happened like two days ago, so I don't know why you're being so dismissive of this possibility.

[Ferguson97]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

[Ferguson97]

What is the nonsensical “legal” argument that Republicans are even making to try and stop Saturday voting?