AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1510044777290473475

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

[Ferguson97]

 Honestly I think Begich dropping out would benefit Palin. A ranked-choice election with only two candidates is, in practice, a FPTP vote, and I think Palin would be favored there since Begich voters would have to rank a Democrat 1st instead of 2nd, which might be harder for them to internally justify.

[Ferguson97]

If Palin wins, she probably wins in November.

If Peltola wins, and Begich drops out, Palin probably wins in November.

If Peltola wins, and Palin drops out, Begich likely wins in November.

If Peltola wins, and both Begich and Palin stay in, Peltola likely wins in November.

[Ferguson97]

Why would either candidate drop out?  The whole RCV system is created to avoid situations where we should have to worry about spoilers and thus there should be no pressure to drop out. 

In fact, there should be a very strong expectations that anyone who advances in the primary should continue to campaign through the general election.  Candidates dropping out after they have finished Top 4 (and thus denying a ballot spot to someone else), seriously damages the integrity of the reform.

Strategic voting is still a thing.

If the race is between Peltola and Palin, then Begich—>Peltola—>Palin voters might switch and rank Palin over Peltola. Since RCV with two candidates is effectively FPTP, they might find it harder to justify ranking a Dem 1st than 2nd.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AlaskaDemocrats/status/1565017038359506945

Kinda messed up for Alaska to do this on her birthday, gonna ruin it for her if she loses

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RebeccaPalsha/status/1565132891289681925

[Ferguson97]

I would be curious how Murkowski personally ranked her ballot. She at the end of the day is a conservative and she endorsed Sullivan in 2020 but she had a very good relationship from Peltola from what I udnerstand.

I would bet anything she ranked 1. Begich, 2. Peltola, 3. Palin

[Ferguson97]

bookmark a tweet? lol

You can bookmark a tweet. It's a way to save it without liking/retweeting.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/WillMuldoon/status/1565183329607237633

tag yourself, I'm Italy

[Ferguson97]

Omfg how did no one notice that yesterday was Peltola’s freaking birthday

She made National waves and shattered glass ceiling as a freaking birthday present

Someone mentioned it in the special election megathread. It's one of many interesting little tidbits of trivia pertaining to this race.

Even better:

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1565415415244660737