2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573384408547082242

[Ferguson97]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

Lol cope

[Ferguson97]

I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1575559431504670720

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1578168091107803136

Democratic fundraising emails: Hi, it's Nancy Pelosi. Sorry to bother you, but could we have $5 for Tim Ryan's campaign? Pretty please with sugar on top?

Republican fundraising emails: Listen f-ckwad, either make a donation to Donald Trump's legal defense fund or we're putting your credit card info on Reddit. You have 30 minutes.

[Ferguson97]

[Ferguson97]

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

POV: you know nothing about campaign finance

[Ferguson97]

Is this the thread for us to post our individual House predictions in? If not, is there such a thread?

We've been making individual threads for that, but a dedicated prediction map might be a good idea.

[Ferguson97]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1582184292364746752

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1582360982831001600

[Ferguson97]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

Internal polls are polls sponsored by either a candidate running in the race or an outside group that has endorsed one of the candidates.

[Ferguson97]

I don't remember there being such a wide range of results in GCB polling in 2018 or 2020. We're seeing anything from D+4 to R+6. Those are extremely different results!

[Ferguson97]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

[Ferguson97]

If there’s any consolation to the Emerson poll, it’s that most of the movement being from Ds to Undecided is a lot less frightening than the Republican top line going up more than 1 point. But, yeah, not a good poll.

I just find it very difficult to believe that we went from "Dems win abortion ballot by 20 points in Kansas" to "normal midterm" in 3 months when the economy hasn't really changed all that much.

[Ferguson97]

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

I get your point, but n=3 is hardly a large enough sample size to say that this phenomenon is here to stay.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1583496875113852934

[Ferguson97]

Early-voting figures suggest either

1) A very large change in who votes early, and for what reason; or
2) A double-digit national Republican victory, significantly larger than 1994/2010.

So I'd have to say yes.

You are delusional if you think this is going to happen.

[Ferguson97]

To win they should surrender on taxes and federal spending programs.

You have the absolute worst political instincts out of anyone on Atlas, and I'm not exaggerating. TheReckoning would run a more competent campaign than you.

[Ferguson97]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

[Ferguson97]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

You are completely nuts for thinking this, and you are without a doubt one of the most out-of-touch people I've ever seen on Atlas.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Looking at individual districts to try and paint a narrative is silly.

Peltola is very likely to win Alaska at-large again. Does that mean we're clearly not in an R+3 or more environment?

[Ferguson97]

I'll be so bold to predict that if Garcia wins reelection, then every Republican incumbent in the House will be reelected. It's hard for me to see Valadao or Flores losing on such a night.

Every Republican? Has there every been a midterm where every incumbent of the challenging party won?

[Ferguson97]

I'll be so bold to predict that if Garcia wins reelection, then every Republican incumbent in the House will be reelected. It's hard for me to see Valadao or Flores losing on such a night.

Every Republican? Has there every been a midterm where every incumbent of the challenging party won?

2006 and 1994, although Democrats did pick up four open seats in the latter.

Alright then I'll bet that it doesn't happen. This isn't a 2006/1994 environment. It's 2014 or 2016.

[Ferguson97]

Good news about Sharice Davids, I couldn't get a read on that race.