NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Ferguson97]

Tilt R if Sununu runs, Lean-Likely D if he doesn't.

[Ferguson97]

Oh thank god

[Ferguson97]

Good for him, I’d want to stay out of Washington as well.

Also good for him for helping Dems keep the Senate

Only in your mind.

Democrats are struggling in New Jersey and Virginia and you believe they are capable of keeping the senate?

Gubernatorial races are different from Senate races.

New Jersey had a Republican Governor for the majority of Obama’s presidency.

Andy Beshar won the KY GOV in 2018. Charlie Baker has won MA Gov.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1458085707541516293?s=21


HAHAHA

[Ferguson97]

Unbeatable Titan checks notes Maggie Hassan?

In all seriousness, this is the best case scenario for the Democrats.

[Ferguson97]

BREAKING: Maggie Hassan declares her third wish will be to grant the genie his freedom

[Ferguson97]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

I can't possibly think of an angle where this could be a positive for them...

[Ferguson97]

It cannot be understated how badly the NH GOP fumbled this...

1. Terrible national environment for the Democrats.

2. Hassan only won by 1,000 in a neutral environment.

3. Sununu is an extremely popular Governor. Ayotte is a semi-popular former Senator who barely lost last time.

4. New England LOVES being bipartisan(TM).

This borders on malpractice.

[Ferguson97]

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Wtf

I guess my gender polarization prediction is coming true?

[Ferguson97]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

[Ferguson97]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

This is true.

It’s also why I’m not convinced Biden or Harris are DOA in 2024, especially running against Trump — who also had catastrophic approvals.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1513570086111653895

Yeah, Hassan should be fine.

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Maggie_Hassan/status/1514403363529666561?cxt=HHwWgsC9...

DSCC needs to cut Hassan off for that.

DSCC needs to cut off their strongest vulnerable incumbent because she said she’d prefer the state she represents remain the first primary?

[Ferguson97]

Hassan comes out against the Biden Adminstration's plan to end title 42, goes to the U.S-Mexico border.

Her home state shares a border with Canada. So when New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan recently showed up more than 2,000 miles away, at the U.S border with Mexico, it created a backlash.

Not just among Republicans — who mocked her as ‘MAGA Maggie’ and dismissed her appearances in Texas and Arizona as a desperate attempt to appear tough on border security — but within her own party. Latino leaders reacted with rage to her southern border visit in early April and her opposition to the Biden administration’s plan to lift the Trump-era border restriction known as Title 42.


Members of the New Hampshire Democratic Latino Caucus resigned from their party leadership posts in an angry public letter. A Democratic state lawmaker took to the House floor to rail against Hassan and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who also opposes the administration’s effort to end Title 42. More than a dozen progressives and immigration advocates gathered in Portsmouth Tuesday — the same day President Joe Biden was visiting the city — to protest Hassan’s stance and demand that she meet with them.


The fierce pushback is a glimpse into the volatile politics surrounding Title 42 and the pressures buffeting vulnerable swing-state senators like Hassan — one of four Democratic incumbents whose fate in November will likely determine control of the Senate.

Let these activists cry and cry some more. Believe it or not, but there are people who support when dems stand up to the loonies. Good on Maggie for having some common sense.

I just don't think that is going to safe her. New Hampshire is very much a State that is dependend on the National Environment. If Bidens Approvals are below 40ties as they are right now she is likely going to lose.

I don’t even care about the electoral implications — this is simply the common sense position to hold. This wouldn’t even be controversial 12 years ago. And articles like that Politico one are just a representation of how manipulating and insane the mainstream media is.

How is it common sense? We have to end pandemic restrictions like Title 42.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1570822392230072321

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1573441789574500373

There's gotta be a Democratic plant in the RNC at this point, right?

[Ferguson97]

Cut the man some slack — he’s obviously aware that NH politics cannot be understood unless it is viewed through the lens of gender. He just drew the (entirely) wrong conclusions from it, but that happens to all of us at times.

Should have hired me as campaign manager, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Bolduc could've hired me, a partisan Democrat who wants him to lose, and he'd be doing better than he is now. Not even I could come up with self-sabotage of this caliber.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/bykatesmith/status/1580669407910854656

"Lol stop saying Republicans just want to control women's bodies, that's ridiculous.

[Ferguson97]

I like to think of this as a consolation prize. At this stage we're just toying with the Dems.

Conceding a Senate seat to own the libs? That's a new one.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1585673200305901574

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1585673200305901574

https://melmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/66f-1.jpg

Keep crying about the election you lost, it only makes you look more deranged

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1586424109034049536

I forget, did the usual suspects on Atlas buy this one or was it too deranged even for them?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1587539518374047744

[Ferguson97]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

I’m honestly fascinated by how large the gender divide is even in relatively homogeneous states like NH. Are politics really that toxic?

But wouldn't you expect a larger gender divide in an ethnically homogeneous state? If race isn't an issue, then gender is. 

[Ferguson97]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

Here’s their final debate from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imrvCGobADU

Again, if you watch it, it’s not hard to see why the race is a Toss-up. I will say that I’m actually glad Bolduc won the nomination and not Morse (I don’t think he would have been nearly as relentless/on-message in going after her as Bolduc).

She’s also just a very, very poor candidate (and there’s a reason why she’s the only deeply unpopular New England incumbent).

Lol what are you nuts? Bolduc comes across like a MAGA lunatic. Hassan wins by more than 5 points, easy.