Base of 42ish% that is essentially a lock to vote any candidate in the R column. You don't need to spend any money convincing them. They would vote for me if I was on the ballot.
They just need to peck away at the loosely coupled voters - those not locked into a party - and the infrequent voters. And they don't even need to get to 50% of the popular vote nationally to win.
- Non-college educated, white men... "they" will be taking your jobs and your daughters... bing!
- Florida Cuban Americans... vote for the other side and you will get the Socialist leader you escaped from... bing!
- Older Latina/Latino... abortion, removing God, etc... bing!
Top that off with an uninspiring Democrat candidate (Dems fall in love, Reps fall in line) and you get a close race.
Bingo. Had we nominated someone like Warren we wouldn’t have these problems.
Warren would be losing Florida by like 5-6 points
