Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[SPC]

Romney will win easily, but Tommy Thompson could pose a mild threat to him, given that he's been campaigning in all 99 counties. Ron Paul's grassroots campaign could also be a threat to Romney. This should be the story of Mitt Romney and the Seven Dwarves. In the end, I expect Romney places first, Tommy places second, and Paul places third. Brownback, Hunter, Cox, and Huckabee drop out thereafter.

[SPC]

Anyone willing to put their reputation on the line and put up a prediction?

Sure, why not:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Sam Brownback
3. Ron Paul
4. Tom Tancredo
5. Mike Huckabee (withdraws from race thereafter)
6. Tommy Thompson (withdraws from race thereafter)
7. John Cox
8. Duncan Hunter (withdraws from race thereafter)

[SPC]

Two things.  First, who is this John Cox guy?

He's an Illinois businessman and the chairman of the Cook County Republican Party. The media has excluded him from the debates.

[SPC]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

[SPC]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

Paul is behind Cox? wtf?

Cox has been in the race longer and according to his campaign has the support of some county leaders. I can't find the article on his website, but I've seen it on there before.

Also note this:
http://www.cox2008.com/cox/govs_gilmore_branstad_ray_make_plea_to_abc_news/

I find it interesting, too bad it didn't work.

Cox should be allowed into the debates. If they included Gilmore in the 10-man debate, they should include Cox now. Especially when the field thins in the next few weeks.

[SPC]

Btw, who is John Cox?  I've heard of him a few times but have no idea who he is, what he stands for, or why he is in the race.

John Cox is the Cook County Republican County Chairman who has never held elected office before. He's basically holds the Republican platform on every issue except gun control. He decded to run for president after waking up one morning or some reason.

Also, here is my new straw poll prediction:

Romney 36% (~15200 votes)
Paul 18% (~7500 votes)
Huckabee 10% (~4300 votes)
Tancredo 9% (~4000 votes)
Brownback 8% (~3600 votes)
T. Thompson 6% (~2600 votes)
Giuliani 4% (~1600 votes)
Hunter 3% (~1400 votes)
F. Thompson 3% (~1300 votes)
McCain 3% (~1200 votes)
Keyes 1% (~300 votes)
Cox 0% (~30 votes)

[SPC]

As everyone has said Romney wins, what's at stake is how much does he win by? If that gap isn't very big he could be in some trouble.

I worked this out in Excel, and, after it gave me some crazy predidction of Romney winning 70% of the Straw Poll Vote, it eventually settled on a 6-7% winning margin of Romney.

Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

I know Keyes has said that he will be running a draft campaign in the Iowa Straw Poll, but do you really think he will beat McCain? Also, is Gilmore still on the Straw Poll ballot?

[SPC]

Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

[SPC]

Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

Why? Hoping really hard for a Paul upset?

Of course. Although, I know Romney haws a lock on the first place position, I would like to compare my prediction (which used Excel numbers) to the actual results. Then again, I would be excited to see Ron Paul get the first place position.

[SPC]

Question for everyone. Does everyone agree that Romney has more to lose then he has to gain by participating in this straw poll? After all, everyone expects him to win, and big. So, should he somehow lose, or even have someone like Paul place closer to him then expected, would that hurt his campaign significantly? I personally think that should he somehow lose the straw poll, it’s the end of his campaign. All the hype around him would deflate, and donations might start to draw up. Of course, I tend to exaggerate ill side effects, and could very well be doing so here.

Well, if Romney loses the straw poll, it is over, as it would show he is unelectable in even Iowa.
If he wins, not like anyone expected it otherwise.

However, the latter is more likely to happen. Also, with the new Iowa poll and my reevaluation of Cox, I have compiled new results on Excel, which I will post here later on.

[SPC]

Okay, here are my updated [projected] results:

Romney ~37% (~15300)
Paul ~18% (~7500)
Tancredo ~10% (~4000)
Brownback ~9% (~3600)
Huckabee ~9% (~3500)
T. Thompson ~4% (~1800)
Giuliani ~4% (~1500)
Hunter ~3% (~1350)
F. Thompson ~3% (~1200)
McCain ~2% (~1000)
Keyes ~1% (~300)
Cox ~0% (~80)

[SPC]

I really hope Paul comes in second but I don't see it happening right now.

Well, the way I see it, Paul is very well poised to have a good showing. He has:
*More money than any of his second-tier competitors
*A strong base
*An open primary (Democrats and Independents can come too, advantageous for Paul)

Of course, I am speaking through a pro-Paul bias, so I don't know.

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

I have my fingers crossed. However, I don't see any way Rick Santorum can pull an upset victory at the Straw Poll.

[SPC]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

I think you are overestimating Romney. Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will still be on the ballot, and Paul and Brownback still have a decent amount of money. I personally doubt Romney will break 45%, but that's just me.

[SPC]

One of the Ron Paul organizers was on saying that they had a lot of support from out of state. Meaning people were driving in and volunteering but not many from in the state. They still think they'll be in the top 5 though.

Well, those organizers could try to convert people who got their ticket and transportation from the Romney camp. Also, let's not forget how much available money Paul has to spend so he could buy tickets for people.

[SPC]

Are there going to be any projections of the results before they officially come in?

[SPC]

I can't wait for he results to be announced.

Here are the results (They are void for now, but will be filled in as soon as they are announced):

Romney X% X votes
Paul X% X votes
Tancredo X% X votes
Brownback X% X votes
Huckabee X% X votes
T. Thompson X% X votes
Giuliani X% X votes
Hunter X% X votes
F. Thompson X% X votes
McCain X% X votes
Keyes X% X votes
Cox X% X votes

[SPC]

What is with Ron Paul? Can someone honestly tell me? Earlier this year, most people had never heard of the man. I was familiar with him as a Republican Congressman from Texas...but why is such an unknown lackluster candidate lighting up the internet? It's unbelieveable.

Well, he, Kucinich, and Gravel are the only genuinely anti-war candidates. This means the anti-war Republicans don't really have much of a choice, as he is the only Republican to be anti-war. Also, he does get support from small-government conservatives and libertarians. Conversely, can oyu tell me what is with Rudy Giuliani, and why he is at the top of the field?

[SPC]

Goddamn the other networks for forcing me to watch FoxNews.

[SPC]

When will Tommy make the official announcement?

[SPC]

I couldn't bring myself to tell the various Paul fans in this forum that his 5th place finish among a bunch of nothing candidates (and Mitt) means that he stands no chance at the nomination, but I will choose to do so now.

I've never denied that Paul has a extremely slim (i.e. essentially none) chance at winning. I just want to have him perform well enough such that the GOP will nominate a libertarian-leaner in 2012.

[SPC]

Good for Huckabee. Though I disagree with him on the issues, he seems to be the most common man populist of the candidates. I still wish Ron Paul had a good showing, though.

[SPC]

John McCain is unstoppable now with his 0.7% 10th place showing!

Though it is kinds unfair since he didn't actively compete, it is pretty depressing to be second last only to John Cox.