California Gubernatorial Election, 2010

[SPC]

Given that Schwarzenegger is term-limited, this is sure to be the most crowded governor election since 2003. Here are some potential candidates from both sides:

Democrats:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)

[SPC]

I will be adding more to the list shortly.

[SPC]

I will be rating the candidates either first-tier, second-tier, or third-tier:

Democrats:

First Tier:

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

Second Tier:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Third Tier:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

Republicans:


First Tier:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Congressman Darrell Issa

Second Tier:

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Third Tier:

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)
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[SPC]

I'm updating this:

Democrats:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

*San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

[SPC]

Schwarzenegger might be eligible in 2010, depending on how you define "terms"

Does anyone from California know its rule/definition of term?

Though i suspect it would be best for Arnold and the GOP for him to not run...he's been in there 7 years...still seems popular...the other shoe has to drop...best, politically, to let the bottom fall out under a democrat...rather than him.

Shrug

I believe that he can't serve for more than 10 years. His term would end in 2015 if he were to run for reelection, and he was sworn in in 2003, so no, he couldn't run again.

[SPC]

I will be rating the candidates either first-tier, second-tier, or third-tier:

Democrats:

First Tier:

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

Second Tier:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Third Tier:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

Republicans:


First Tier:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Congressman Darrell Issa

Second Tier:

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Third Tier:

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)

How are you determining tiers?  Because, imo, the GOP tiers are all messed up.  Rep. Darrell Issa would never ever win statewide in CA so I don't see him as first tier material.  Having lost Sec. State, Bruce McPherson should also, imho, be demoted. 

The top tier GOP candidates, it seems to me, would be SD Mayor Jerry Sanders and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.  They would still have a very tough time of it.  Plus I don't really see Jerry Sanders, a somewhat lackluster mayoral candidate who benefited from a weak opponent, running for higher office. 

As for the Dems, I've heard Garamendi is going to run but he's been such a frequent gubernatorial candidate, I can't take him seriously: third tier.

Don't forget Treasurer and former AG Bill Lockyer probably wants to be governor, too.
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I was ranking them based on their ability to win a primary.

[SPC]

My prediction:

I predict that the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to Newsom and Villagorossa, with Brown and Wesley being logshots. As for the Republicans, I think that it will come down to Poizner, Issa, and McClintock, with McClintock ultimately getting the nomination.

In the GE, Newsom beats McClintock 53-44.

[SPC]

What about former Governor and current Attorney-General, Jerry Brown. Is he considering a run or is his term restricted?

My prediction:

I predict that the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to Newsom and Villagorossa, with Brown and Wesley being logshots. As for the Republicans, I think that it will come down to Poizner, Issa, and McClintock, with McClintock ultimately getting the nomination.

In the GE, Newsom beats McClintock 53-44.

Does this answer your question?

[SPC]

I'm updating this:

Democrats:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

*San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom

*State Treasurer and Former Attorney General Bill Lockyer

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Here are my tiers:

First Tier
Democrats
Villaraigosa
Newsom
Lockyer

Republicans
McClintock
Poizner
Issa

Second Tier
Democrats
Brown
Westley
Sanchez

Republicans
Ackerman
McPherson

Third Tier
Democrats
Garamendi
Nunez

Republicans
Sanders

[SPC]

lol, is Jerry Brown seriously going to run again?  if he does, I'd probably support him for nostalgia's sake, even though Jello Biafra probably wouldn't. 

He's probably thinking about it. Politics is his life. He's run for Governor twice before, President thrice, Oakland mayor once, and he's now the state Attorney General.

[SPC]

How liberal is Steve Poizner exactly? I know he is a very liberal Republican but how liberal is he really?

I really don't know. All I can say is that I hope that the libertarian McClintock prevails. I really do not want another Republican if they are going to be as liberal as Schwarzenegger.

[SPC]

Well, McClintock is more fiscally conervative than Schwarzenegger coudl ever wish to be. He was the only Republican who got my vote during the 2006 elections, and was high up on my list during the 2003 recall election, but I eventually settled with Schwarzenegger (who actually know what fiscal restraint meant back then.)

[SPC]

Dammit, Villaraigosa, did you have to get into an affair with a reporter? *sigh*

I doubt that will be much of an issue in California in 2010. He has a lot of time recover from that.

You coudl say the same for Newsom. What is it with big city CA mayors and sex scandals?