West African Crisis

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https://apnews.com/article/niger-tensions-presidential-guard-96f8f63b838af5467d4c95ba7b998b32

Members of Niger’s presidential guard surrounded the presidential palace Wednesday in what African organizations called an attempted coup against the country’s democratically elected leader. The U.S. said the rebelling soldiers had detained President Mohamed Bazoum.

A tweet from the account of Niger’s presidency reported that members of the elite guard unit engaged in an “anti-Republican demonstration” and unsuccessfully tried to obtain support from other security forces. It said Bazoum and his family were doing well but that Niger’s army and national guard “are ready to attack” if those involved in the action did not back down.

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It was a success

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The United States needs to cease its foreign officer training programs. These forces have been a hotbed of anti-democratic forces that have either overthrown democratically elected leaders and cause massive genocidal oppression for right wing leaders to keep power.

No wonder when the wind blows another direction these officers jump ship to another foreign master.

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Niger had 11 million inhabitants in 2000, has 25 million now; it is expected to have a whopping 66 million in 2050 and 166 million in 2100. Any ruler of Niger can weaponize this against Europe. For this reason alone we cannot allow Russia to take over here.

Get over yourself. The “migrant crisis” is over.

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

The Gambian campaign went pretty successfully in restoring democracy. I wouldn’t be opposed to this

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ECOWAS didn’t intervene in Mali, Guinea, or Burkina Faso when they experienced their coups. Like Gambia, they prefer to go for brief interventions with little possible pushback. I will say though, compared to the small country of 2.5 million, invading Niger with only the backing of 55% of the population will be the most consuming intervention yet, more intensive than the fight against the various northern insurgents in Mali.

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The regime in Burkina Faso pardoned the killers of Sankara. Another front of an inter-imperialist war, just like in Ethiopia.

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Have there been any actual demonstrations of support within the country for Bazoum? Haven’t seen anything but I could be wrong. If not, surely that should give some pause for thought regarding intervention (not that I believe intervention to be a particularly likely scenario).

there were big demonstrations in the capital in the days immediately after the coup

Specifically, 55%+ of the voters in the prior election along with tacit support of some voters of the main opposition party whose prior presidential nominee also tried to reverse the coup.

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The arrest of Ousmane Sonko should highlight how there are no sides here for democracy or security, but of self-interested elites garnering their power from guns brandished in and with caveats of implicit payment from colonial authorities.

The thread shall reflect that shift.

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It's an interesting comment on how little many self-professed Third Worldists actually care about Africans that they regard military coups against democratically-elected governments to be good things. It is true, of course, that there is not a single democracy in Africa that is not severely flawed, and this is very unfortunate, but the record of military rule across the continent has been baleful in the extreme. Even flawed, imperfect and partial (yes even partial) democracies are infinitely preferable to the return of rule by the Big Man and his pack of colonels. We all know how this story ends. We've all seen it enough.

Self-determination in the Third World is when generals overthrow elected governments. The less color of law they have in doing so, the self-determineder it is.

Words with no substance all you have?

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Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

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Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

I was pointing out the sort of greek tragedy of it all where, in creating monstrous periods of human suffering, great powers kneecap themselves in such fashion.

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

You have to be more concerned about the budget of your PRC, which is flooding Africa with USD billions for publicly unknown purposes.

They are quite open about the cash being a mixture of infrastructure spending, investment, and bribery. What is even more funny is that these deals are much better than anything the European powers, World Bank, IMF, and the USA especially are offering which is tantamount to forceful loansharking comparatively.

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Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Aside from the GreyZone-level indifference toward/celebration of suffering as long as it “owns the West” I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here, it’s frankly incoherent.

Russia seeks to benefit from a divided EU and a distracted France primarily in relation to Ukraine, harming US interests. I wasn’t explaining my own feelings, of which are that war is not worth putting back on the rightful president of Niger.

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Bazoum is the rightful president and it was a shame he was removed, but turning west Africa into a war zone on behalf of France is not a good course of action and can only result in tragedy.

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Threatening intervention is probably worth it, if this can achieve anything. Actually following through is another matter, and if it happens, it will need to be meticulously planned. The primary concern is not whether the coupists can hold (on their own, they probably won’t), but whether their troops join the insurgencies.

Nigeria cannot even defeat Boko Haram conventionally with the brutality they have inflicted over there without the aid and assistance of Chad, how can they defeat the opposing juntas and the various secessionists in Niger? A bloody quagmire where Niger is effectively nonexistent as a country and various warlords utilize third parties to smuggle resources to France is the most likely outcome for perhaps decades here.

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Threatening intervention is probably worth it, if this can achieve anything. Actually following through is another matter, and if it happens, it will need to be meticulously planned. The primary concern is not whether the coupists can hold (on their own, they probably won’t), but whether their troops join the insurgencies.

Nigeria cannot even defeat Boko Haram conventionally with the brutality they have inflicted over there without the aid and assistance of Chad, how can they defeat the opposing juntas and the various secessionists in Niger? A bloody quagmire where Niger is effectively nonexistent as a country and various warlords utilize third parties to smuggle resources to France is the most likely outcome for perhaps decades here.

They’ve defeated Boko Haram conventionally multiple times. Boko Haram/ISWAP has come back from these because of the failure to defeat the insurgency (specifically, in the Sambisa forest), but this is not so different from the Vietcong launching the failed Tet Offensive against a backdrop of successful guerilla warfare.

I think it’s unlikely the other coupists, who have been tolerated for years by ECOWAS, will stick their necks out for these ones, but they could offer some limited support. Warlords/militias are sadly plausible even if the conventional conflict ends quickly, but I suspect they’ll become more common in Niger even if there isn’t an intervention.

Chad, and ECOWAS nations then, were what brought down Boko Haram and what defeated them in both pitched and counterinsurgent operations.

The regimes were tolerated because getting involved was too great compared to the reward for these politicians. Now that France is doubling down, the ECOWAS nation’s elite can get better terms for themselves.

ITT: "anti-imperialists" cheering a coup orchestrated by European mercenaries to destabilize an African country and take over its resources, and then booing when a coalition of African countries mobilize to restore the democratically elected president

We really are through the looking glass

Oh wow, so even with the facts that these Nigerien were trained in US and French military schools, Russia-rot is still on most of y’alls mind.

Ok, let’s go over these African nations

Nigeria—Policies reminiscent of Fujimori Peru’s mass abortion campaign against the Fulani people along with other crimes against humanity aided and abetted by the government. The party in charge committed multiple massacres against the #endSars protesters as well as continued oppression against indigenous people of the Nigerian Delta which flames up insurgencies then put down with the assistance of primarily Western oil companies. Is the main sponsor of the ECOWAS military program

Togo—ran by a dictatorship currently protecting Liberian mercenaries which have threatened the security of the region.

Senegal—Ran by a regime very similar to Russia which just recently banned the main opposition party and have done election fraud in the past

I am not going to continue. It’s real odious that many are supporting more foreverwars just because a President with a D next to their name on the ballot is president, just as the War on Terror is fresh in most people’s memories.

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just because a President with a D next to their name on the ballot is president

Don't you play that card with me, you presumptuous f**kwit. My position on international issues has been clear and unwavering for over a decade now. I know you can't conceive of someone having a principled stance on democracy because your only criterion for assessing a regime is which geopolitical block it belongs to, but you could try to be a bit less lazy with your mischaracterizations.

Oh honey get your eyes checked, you clearly need it if you think I look like you or spelled out your self-projection.

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just because a President with a D next to their name on the ballot is president

Don't you play that card with me, you presumptuous f**kwit. My position on international issues has been clear and unwavering for over a decade now. I know you can't conceive of someone having a principled stance on democracy because your only criterion for assessing a regime is which geopolitical block it belongs to, but you could try to be a bit less lazy with your mischaracterizations.

Oh honey get your eyes checked, you clearly need it if you think I look like you or spelled out your self-projection.

That's a lot of words for what amounts to a "no you". But I guess you've always excelled at finding the most verbose way to phrase childish thoughts.

After a while of being around pretentious idiots you have to at least have fun in making your point.

just because a President with a D next to their name on the ballot is president

Don't you play that card with me, you presumptuous f**kwit. My position on international issues has been clear and unwavering for over a decade now. I know you can't conceive of someone having a principled stance on democracy because your only criterion for assessing a regime is which geopolitical block it belongs to, but you could try to be a bit less lazy with your mischaracterizations.

*Which geopolitical bloc it has the vibes of belonging to. The junta is frothingly anti-French, which is frankly one of the least unreasonable things about it (no offense), but it has not taken any steps to remove US forces and indeed some Moustache of Understanding or other at the Atlantic Council was saying just earlier today that the junta is here to stay and the US should lean into it as a partner. But no, it has black guys with medals involved so it must be anti-American and thus Good.

Well yes, which is why the sanctions and condemnation is called for because military men acting outside civilian government are never good, but starting a massive war to destroy the country just so France could have uranium below their value price and maintain their masculinity as a relevant international power is not a good idea.

If our government falls for the bait again and causes another massive war where the only winners are criminals smuggling out minerals for guns, I expect Biden to apologize and get angry that France caused another Libyan disaster.