Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[PSOL]

Wagner, and the importance of most other Russian PMCs, is over as a relevant player.

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https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1702717155521831010?s=12
😗

Now this would be amazing if it were true. The worst of the trash is finally getting taken out in Russia.

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Apparently the war is felt in Sudan too, with Ukraine striking with drones against a Russia-backed militia:

Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says (CNN, Youtube)

I approve such use of resources

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You cannot be a communist and stand with Trump or Putin for that matter

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Real normal conversations on Atlas

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Most in the west don’t work in the weapon industry or are beltway elites, and the huge amount of money given to Ukraine based on their own comprehension is too much as they are left with getting less than before the war. Blaming it on “geopolitical ADHD”, “populism”, or “Russian troll farms” isn’t very convincing and is not a winning argument as most people are struggling to make ends meet, working harder to compensate for their prior living standards, and some seeing that their leadership has misplaced priorities from what they expect of government.

Instead of prioritizing alternative energy sources or focusing on improving people’s livelihoods here and there makes them hard to believe you.

[PSOL]

Republicans are only anti-Ukraine out of contrarianism, if Trump was still president then he would have given Ukraine money. A significant amount of republicans, maybe 30%, are actually for aid but can't visibly share those beliefs out of fear of being cast out or primaried by MAGA.

[PSOL]

So Biden is going to do Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and Boarder funding all in one bill request
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-israel-ukraine-taiwan-border-funding-supplemental-request-rcna119930

Is there enough Republican support for this? Theoretically, few votes are enough, but pro-Putin wing is getting more and more vocal.

Yes, as the Republican opposition is mainly just for show

[PSOL]

It took time for the war in Yemen to take up most of the GCC's resources and divert arms sales from western countries. Of course now that there's a production crisis with just supplying Ukraine, I think that even if the war against Palestine takes at minimum 6 months to be over, that's serious opportunity for Russia to regroup and win as Ukraine is temporarily cast as a lesser concern.

These are going to be very strenuous months for the Ukraine lobbyists having to stay relevant and not get abandoned by like the Syrian rebels did.

[PSOL]

Unlike the aftermath of the fall of Raqqa or Kabul, I do expect there to be a nasty insurgency in Ukraine should Russia take over its entire territory from public support and more intense foreign backing. There's nothing stopping any Ukrainian from instigating a massive uprising which will bring some territory back to it.

I am certain that a Russian victory at its best means a rump Ukrainian state based to the west of Kiev, not a total end to Ukraine.

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If Ukraine actually legalizes medical weed, the first of Eastern Europe to do so to my knowledge, that actually speaks to how determined and in touch with reality the current government actually is.

[PSOL]

The reality is that Russia has a lot more cannon fodder and artillery shells to wear down Ukrainian numbers even with the latter having better morale and the benefit of Western support. Russia will most likely make gains eastward to relevant cities like Kharkov and Odessa setting the stage for their possible capture in 2025 or so. Unless NATO intervenes to actually shore up these fronts, with tens of thousands of supporting troops, the territorial integrity of the rest of Ukraine outside the current front line is bleak. Small amounts of volunteers and SOF are not enough, as is any weak amount of aerial defense.

[PSOL]

It was obvious this was a repeat of the Yugoslavia situation where the United States was deliberately prolonging the war to kneecap their enemies and make bank on weapon sales.

[PSOL]

Ukraine would be in a lot better position if they weren’t being held back by NATO in attacking Russia proper as hard with their current capabilities as Russia bombs their own cities. A significant amount of Russians would be dead and broken if the nation were demoralized through terrorism.

Terrorism works, just as the bombing campaign against Ukraine takes its toll so too did the IRA make the British come to the negotiating table. It also gives the weaker benefactor something to feel good about as they strike their enemies homeland. Ukrainians needed that boost just as their previous escapade into the Russian border and droning Moscow raised their spirits. Just put a cover of some music or have some TikTok or twitch streamer give their take on it.

[PSOL]

Ukraine would be in a lot better position if they weren’t being held back by NATO in attacking Russia proper as hard with their current capabilities as Russia bombs their own cities. A significant amount of Russians would be dead and broken if the nation were demoralized through terrorism.

Terrorism works, just as the bombing campaign against Ukraine takes its toll so too did the IRA make the British come to the negotiating table. It also gives the weaker benefactor something to feel good about as they strike their enemies homeland. Ukrainians needed that boost just as their previous escapade into the Russian border and droning Moscow raised their spirits. Just put a cover of some music or have some TikTok or twitch streamer give their take on it.

Ever hear of the Chechen Wars? Nord-Ost, Beslan, Budyonnovsk, etc.

Morale boosters for the masses raped by the Russian invaders, and great points of attention in worldwide media.

The Russian army bombs with impunity now and there really is widescale support among people who actually matter in the Russian federation because they haven’t actually taken the brunt of the violence. Bringing the war home to them as well as striking strategic and symbolic targets work in depressing the population. The Russian Federation is basically too cowardly to escalate this war and fight in a smart way as they should have, NATO/Ukraine might as well go ballistic on them.

[PSOL]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I don’t want aid to increase, and Ukraine doesn’t necessarily need more aid but more leeway in running this war as they want it, effective.

[PSOL]

No matter if it ended by a ceasefire, Russia will just keep on going with escalations little by little till they conquer the whole country.

[PSOL]

There’s no threat to Germany or even Poland in the event of Russia taking Ukraine sometime this decade, and with the poor state of the Russian army I doubt they want to engage against the Baltics anytime soon.

The next logical point of focus is trying to get a hold in the Caucasus or Central Asia, and even that is in serious doubt as most of the soft power Russia had there is gone.

[PSOL]

There’s no threat to Germany or even Poland in the event of Russia taking Ukraine sometime this decade, and with the poor state of the Russian army I doubt they want to engage against the Baltics anytime soon.

The next logical point of focus is trying to get a hold in the Caucasus or Central Asia, and even that is in serious doubt as most of the soft power Russia had there is gone.

"This morning an electronic billboard on my way to work is displaying this Putin quote: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.”" - Steve Rosenberg, BBC News Russian Editor

It’s going to take two or three years before they can reasonably spin their failure in Ukraine as a victory, for them to take on a NATO army with experience or Germany in this state is not happening.

[PSOL]

Upholding basic standards of civility is really outside the ability of hindsight

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Upholding basic standards of civility is really outside the ability of hindsight

The poster on question called the Bucha massacre fake news and hand waived a UN report on Russian war crimes. Kinda lost the right the basic civility after that stunt. Also you told one of sites only Ukrainian posters he was an “enemy of the working class” for Ukraine wanting to join NATO right as the invasion started so pot meet kettle

And parts of my original comment is still true, truth hurts, but I know when to be courteous and careful.

[PSOL]

Had Kiev been taken when this war began there would have been a massive insurgency, but not this many deaths and refugees with there being a greater chance of the Ukrainian people existing as a national group within Russia. Of course, this would have only been possible if the Russian federation was in any way better as a system than the Ukrainian state post-EuroMaidan and marketed as such instead of what amounts to as a similar kleptocracy ran on Russian chauvinism and scolding identity politics.

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Bilaps has been called a Chetnik, Mobic, and orc in this thread and was viciously ganged upon first in this thread for his contributions and being from Serbia. He’s been hurled abuses along with anyone else with a pro-Russian or nuanced opinion, such as myself, even for calling out Ukrainian disinformation disproved in real time.

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Bilaps has been called a Chetnik, Mobic, and orc in this thread and was viciously ganged upon first in this thread for his contributions and being from Serbia. He’s been hurled abuses along with anyone else with a pro-Russian or nuanced opinion, such as myself, even for calling out Ukrainian disinformation disproved in real time.

I have a sneaking suspicion you wouldn’t use such moral neutral framing to describe our biggest residence Israel simps and the defenses of war crimes they post in the Gaza thread

For one thing the toxicity and denial of nationhood in the same way as in Ukraine has been monopolized by the zionists.

Bilaps has been called a Chetnik, for being from Serbia.

He’s from Bosnia.

Ah, so a Bosnian Serb.

Even more extreme and ultra-nationalist than their brethren in Serbia proper.

More anti-Serb bigotry from supposedly tolerant atlas.

Bilaps hasn’t thrown anyone into death camps or shot at innocent civilians.

[PSOL]

Ukraine could simply offer a cease-fire at the current lines of control. They can say they do not require Russia to make any territorial concessions, and neither will they, but that they are willing to stop shooting to halt the bloodshed. Then, Putin only has two choices. He can (a) agree, which gives Ukraine more time to rebuild its defenses while preventing any further loss of territory or blood at least for a time, or (b) refuse, in which case Ukraine can say to the world, "Look, we are willing to stop this war at any time, but it's solely due to the madman Putin that it continues. All the bloodshed is on him." This would have an undermining effect on Russian propaganda at the margins, and it is at the margins that these things matter anyway, and there is no cost for such a course of action to Ukraine.

I don’t see any margins option b sways practically everyone in the Russian camp are bad faith trolls who just ignore this stuff. Case in point the current rhetoric that is pushing Ukraine to go the negotiating table like their being the unreasonable ones all while Russia is saying their demands for peace is the surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty

Outside of the second-and-third-to-last demands, which are obviously not official and worth debating, everything else is perfectly acceptable if Ukrainians wants to keep existing with their own nation. Ending this war with a humanitarian ceasefire and having Ukraine be a neutral zone would still be a win to the West as any source of Russian soft power and proxy states have all but dried up.