Afghan government collapse.

[PSOL]

As if anyone with a brain couldn’t see this happening. This is the big mistake of Biden’s presidency so far, and he’d be well advised to reverse so we don’t face these disastrous consequences. I now look forward to the anti-war mob calling me a neocon and warmonger.

As opposed to what, stay in Afghanistan until the end of time? Because the Afghan National Army has had 20 years to get into shape and clearly it never will.

The US should have left Afghanistan decades ago, it would have ended the exact same way but with considerably less spent blood and treasure.

The real question is what happens to the several hundred special forces Biden left behind if the Taliban win completely.

They will make some sort of deal to stay.

[PSOL]

This is a problem for Iran, Russia, and China to deal with. I entrust in them to not let the Al-Qaeda fighters have a presence there.

Things could go more smoothly if we sign up immediately for the JCPOA though.

[PSOL]

I guess there were at least a handful of True Believers in Communism, whereas I can't see why anyone would go their grave defending the current government.

I know that Iran had a strong communist movement from the 1940s until the 1980s, so maybe the same thing was true regarding its neighbor to the east?

Proportionally the socialist movement was smaller but less divided. There were three main factions; Khalqists, Parchamists, and a Maoist faction in several big universities. The previous two were apart of the same party until the Soviets conducted a coup and wiped out the faction not as willing to be subservient to Soviet Leadership.

The communist movement is currently dead. Outside of a small reformist party, irrelevant Maoists, and a few independents—the remaining people associated with the communist government chose to opportunistically back the American-created government. However, with the huge urbanization that I doubt is all that irreversible since 2001 especially, there theoretically is a larger base of an urban working class along with overlapping “unemployed” declassed and precarious youths used as surplus Labour for temporary informal work. The latter faction, especially those who join the army out of desperation, have been susceptible in getting life crises and being sympathetic to the “revolutionary” Taliban who promise an accountable government governed by Pashtun norms.

Given I no doubt suspect the Taliban to be unstable and f••• up, and have nasty proxy conflicts destabilize the government, the chances are high for progressive forces to sneak through the cracks and build power in the long term once they fail and are weak in 20-30 years.

[PSOL]

Well good, let them kill each other and usher in a new era of politics.

[PSOL]

So, will there be a new Northern Alliance?

Nope, the old leaders are at death’s door and divided.

[PSOL]

Meanwhile, alleged political conflicts between Iran and Pakistan following the Taliban Cabinet Position announcements.

This follows only a few days after the IRI "condemned" Pakistan for assaulting "Panjshir".

Wouldn't be hard for Iran to "turn up the heat" a notch to pressure the new TB GVMT, and although likely much of this posing, reality is that the new TB GVMT is heavily dependent upon Iranian Oil flowing through to keep the Power Plants running, especially with only so much in the way of Hydro-resources.

Thing is with the Taliban 2.0, they are trying to create a sort of "interfaith" religious scholar council, but gonna be pretty hard to do that if the whole Sunni-Shiite rivalries start creating not only serious issues within Afghanistan, but also potentially even spreading into Pakistan.

More reason why we should have signed a new deal with Iran mere days into Biden’s presidency.

[PSOL]

I suspect Afghanistan will behave very similarly to Burma, where the incompetent opposition to the government will squander the real opposition to the regime through a slight insurgency while having Radio Free Asia document their “successes”. Already the Taliban have gotten defections from Tajik commanders and they’re at their honeymoon period for at least 3-4 years once the Chinese money flows in.

The only way to make them have a bad time and cause real disruptions is through getting the former Central Asian Republics and Iran(ian proxies) to coordinate with one another. Again, why is the Biden Administration not restarting JCPOA soon?

[PSOL]

Meanwhile early reports of a massive crackdown against the Salafist movement in Afghanistan:

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1436325546808459267?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salafi_movement

I'm actually quite curious and concerned to what exactly might have been coming out of those masjid's and madrassa's for the Afghan Taliban of all people to consider too extreme.

Looks like after 21 years of being dragged on by their worldwide mess has left a sour taste for internationalism.

[PSOL]

So about that resistance…

https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1440509647341834247?s=19