Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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More evidence showing what Russia really thinks about the separatists :

https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1525037160000278528?s=20&t=JnzRfzpo_...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1525210883630194689?s=20&t=zXvbwVt...

They've always been a geopolitical pawn for the Kremlin.

Related, Ukrainian dogs have more rights...

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1525141744232407040?s=20&t=0caE60oSxlqC...

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https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527944356518322176
Ukraine has 700k in the field now according to Zelensky and added if the war continues into the fall they will hit a mil.

The Russian army is around 900 thousand. People assume that 900 thousand Russian soldiers are invading Ukraine, but is only 200 thousand. Ukraine has the numerical advantage, not Russia.

Well, that is what the Russians claim. The severely understaffed battalions being sent to Ukraine suggest in reality this figure is inflated. In terms of Battalion Tactical Groups, what is in Ukraine is a significant chunk of their army.

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Not sure if Davydiv Brid counts as a city though. It has 1200 residents.

Its been a consistent thing throughout the last few months for what are basically largeish villages to be referred to as "towns" or even "cities". It has maybe helped give some an exaggerated idea of the degree of movements on the ground - on both sides, but perhaps especially the Russian one.

In many countries there is little distinction between a town and a city. This is somewhat true in Ukraine; while there is an official city status, the word for city can also be used for what we call towns (historically they were called "little cities", but often the diminutive eventually gets dropped). So when somewhere like Davydiv Brid gets called a misto in a Ukrainian social media post it will likely get incorrectly translated as "city" instead of "town".

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So to what extent are the HIMARS going to be a difference maker? I suspect it takes some time to train on them + move them into the correct positions. If they are better and longer range than what the Russians have though, they should help some, yes?

It really depends on the numbers. A handful of systems isn't going to turn the tide. At the bare minimum they'd need at least 50+, and realistically a lot more.

...

The Chancellor has also announced today that Germany will directly supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system.

https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1531911427379822594

...

That's nice, how long after the war ends will it be delivered?

Given the surface launch version is brand new this likely just refers to a single system. Better than nothing, but not especially decisive.

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Another ship claimed to have been sunk, this time a rescue tug said to be carrying a Tor SAM system to Snake Island. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Navy so hopefully it is correct.

https://twitter.com/UA_NAVY/status/1537682084088651776?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRFrc...

The Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck another "no analogues" - a tug with SAM "TOR" on board

The tugboat of the Black Sea Fleet "Vasiliy Bekh" was hit in the Black Sea during the transportation of ammunition, weapons and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet to Snake Island.

And the video of the strike from a TB2. Seems the TB2 may have been just spotting and the weapons used are anti-ship missiles.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537696927827079170?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRF...

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The Governor of Luhansk and various unofficial sources have implied Ukraine withdrew the last of its forces from Severodonetsk last night.

Additionally:

As always, treat the inevitable hype with caution. It’s likely that only 4 systems have arrived so far - they’re not likely to make much of a short-term difference (outside of maybe Snake Islans, if Ukraine is prepared to expend a fair number of GMLRS there).

The UK also announced the delivery of HIMARS to Ukraine at the same time as the US. The UK HIMARS should be delivered by the end of the month.

The UK's M270s are almost certainly already in Ukraine.

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RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

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If Russia had captured / bought any Caesars then images of them would have been uploaded to Telegram almost instantly for the propaganda value. That we haven't seen any is as good as proof it didn't happen.

As with the video claiming to be a strike against HIMARS that didn't contain any HIMARS. They're just throwing around sh**t hoping it sticks to convince their own people and Western useful idiots that Western weapons deliveries aren't working. That's the way you can tell Western weapons deliveries are hurting them and they want them to stop...

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I mean, if they feel that they want to go out on their terms, they can take a lot of us out with them. If that were to happen, at least it happened then and not later.

As I understand it, Soviet battle plans for a war with NATO involved a lot of tactical nuclear weapons used to blunt enemy formations and armor as well as to destroy bases, air fields, ammunition storage, etc. The Soviets needed weeks to fully mobilize their army within the Warsaw Pact nations and the USSR, and nuclear weapons would be used to give them that time. I don't think any government wants to end humanity. And even when nukes were more of an option than they are today, leveling entire population centers was usually the last thing any country wanted to do.

That's kind of what I was getting at with Russia deploying nukes in the event they exhaust their ability to fight and Ukraine is able to push them out. If they went for Crimea too, and/or started bombing targets on the border within Russia to prevent them from re-grouping, Russia could feel compelled to deploy nukes to force a stop to the war without losing anything else - aka closing out the conflict on their terms. I mean, really, there is nothing stopping them from doing that now - to prevent the loss of the Donbas, Southern Ukraine and Crimea. It would come with major consequences, but there is a good chance that Russia could use nukes to essentially freeze things where they are now - so long as NATO considers it time to get Ukraine to the negotiating table to prevent further escalation. I suppose it could also result in a huge increase of military aid, but I'm skeptical of that.

How much would Russian mobilizing out of desperation truncate the half life of the current Putin plan? Has the Oracle of Delphi cryptically opined about that in the mist of the sulphur fumes?

I'm not convinced Russia has the logistical capacity to support a full mobilization. They don't have the industry to start mass producing advanced weapon systems or munitions, either. Hell, they don't even have the ability to mass produce regular cars! They relied on imports of certain parts because they lacked the ability to produce them themselves. So they could try and pull up a bunch of poorly trained citizens, but they wouldn't necessarily have the same amount of military equipment to use nor would they have the ability to capture Ukraine any faster than when the war first started. There's just way too many soldiers with inadequate training, too much corruption, and not enough working trucks or other supply vehicles. If there were, they wouldn't have been bringing in consumer vehicles by train. It's also politically risky, too. But that's another conversation.

Generally agree, esp with the bolded statement, but still it appears that the Russian Armament Factories are able to continue to produce certain types of munitions with their factories allegedly now running 2nd and 3rd shifts.

Just read my latest Economist Magazine, and thought folks might be interested in a few snippets...

Meanwhile the US has one small arms munitions factory remaining versus the five defense plants running at the height of the Vietnam War.

Indeed, some Ukrainian officials, including Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, argue that if Western help arrives on a sufficient scale, Ukraine may be able to win the war before winter sets in. A military intelligence officer says that Ukraine’s best window for a counter-offensive will come in late October, when its stock of Western arms should be peaking.

The recent fighting has centred on long, heavy artillery barrages that consume vast amounts of ammunition. Russia, which has huge stocks, is thought to be blasting away so indiscriminately that America’s entire annual production would be enough to keep its guns firing for only two weeks, observes Alex Vershinin, a retired us Army officer

Although America and Europe, with vastly larger economies than Russia, could eventually gear up to produce whatever Ukraine needs, their output of shells and missiles will not double overnight. America produces only 2,100 Javelins a year. Mr Vershinin notes that the number of American small-arms plants has shrunk from five during the Vietnam war to one today.

“If you want to use himars as an area weapon,” warned Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, on June 29th, “you’ll be running out of ammunition in 12 hours.”

The aim is to encourage Ukraine to use rocket launchers and other long-range systems in line with their original purpose of fighting a “deep battle”: hitting important Russian targets, such as command posts and railway hubs, many kilometres behind the front lines

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/06/30/does-a-protracted-conflict-favour-russia-or-ukraine

As for Javelins etc, Ukraine already has more tactical anti-tank weapons than Russia has armoured vehicles in total, so supply of more of them isn't so urgent. Even if Russia's last tank factory was fully functional, they couldn't produce anywhere near 2100 tanks a year...

And yes while the Western armouries have been allowed to wither (Russia's defence industry isn't in a great position either post-Soviet Union), they don't have to produce as much as Russia does. If >90% of your missiles/shells actually work as intended - and 9 times out of 10 hit their target, while your opponent's work only a fraction of the time and 9 out of 10 miss, you can get away with much lower production and much less intensive logistical support.

For example just today there's a video of a Russian self-propelled artillery piece being blown up by a single UAV-corrected shell firing (rather than there being a field littered with craters from inaccurate artillery). If you can do that you don't need to be supplied with 100s of thousands of new shells a day.

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Darkness has fallen and HIMARS comes out to play.

An enormous explosion in Nova Kakhovka (just east of Kherson) as a major Russian ammo dump goes up in smoke.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1546580305661788160?s=20&t=uIXkXHlv7Ow3...

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1546582641914388482?s=20&t=uIXkXHlv7Ow3...

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EU backsliding on sanctions continues.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1549405282568110081

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I can understand Iran, but I would not have expected Turkey as an allie of Russia

You mean the Turkey that ruined its relationship with the US by buying a Russian S-400 SAM system?

Turkey plays both sides to try and strong-arm concessions from either.

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https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

"UKRAINIAN FIGHTING TACTICS ENDANGER CIVILIANS"

Amnesty International which clearly is no friend of Russia gets around to complain about Ukrainian tactics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Just to be clear I have no problem with these Ukrainian tactics and in fact support them since All is fair in love and war.  War is a matter of life and death and all tactics has to be on table to achieve victory.  

My main point is that this news is a signal that this is a sign that the progressive left NGO anti-Russian front might be breaking and some are beginning to distance themselves from Zelensky.

The 'progressive left NGOs' as you put it were never on Zelenskys side in the first place. These are organisations that have been fully captured by people with similar views to, for instance, Corbyn. They are just shills for anyone they perceive as anti-West.

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LOL

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1555346594827993090

The bit of the video just before this cut,

"What's up martyr?"
"Haha, I'm no martyr..."

Umm, you are now mate.

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The drones are evolving, this one has about 10 anti-tank grenades. It's effectively a mini-bomber...

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1556143213764919296

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Novofedorivka airbase in western Crimea goes up in smoke.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556996656079507456?s=20&t=70QtmBuC8eFkWm...

~220 km from the frontlines...

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Course of the Russian commentary on the two strikes at the airbase today:

- It was a fire from an accident; nobody was harmed. No aircraft harmed; ammunition exploded
- Admission of one dead and five wounded
- State media commentator says Ukraine has crossed a red line in Crimea, but does not say they are responsible for the attack
- Russian soldiers leak images on Telegram showing at least one destroyed aircraft

https://www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1557077182110998528

There's also what appears to be the remains of a burnt out Su-30 (?) to the right.

There were about 6 planes parked up this morning just at the location this appears to be, and plenty more scattered around.


Edit; some more video. This car parking is even further away from the storage buildings that appear to have blown up than the plane above (planes are bottom right on the satellite image,  storage sites off map to the south).

Watch till the end...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1557116180124540930?s=20&t=eFLBFs4...

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Honestly this is sounding like a bit of a twitter offensive at the moment, very little hard evidence of significant advances. A few of the claims being made earlier seem to be from fake accounts. A couple of villages may have been retaken on the far side of the Inhulets but that's about it.

I'd be very surprised if a significant offensive started in daytime anyway as that would waste the advantage of Western supplied night vision equipment.

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The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

If you are going to try and spread Russian propaganda it is probably wise to stay on-message.

The Russians claimed paratroopers crossed over 3 km of water in boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/01/russia-ukraine-war-no-quick-wins-in-kherson-zelenskiy-adviser-says-nuclear-inspectors-due-at-zaporizhzhia-plant-live?filterKeyEvents=false

The Russian defence ministry has issued additional details of what it claims is an attempt by Ukrainian forces to sabotage or recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine which Russian forces have been occupying since March.

Without offering any evidence, the ministry said:

"At 6.20am Moscow time, on the coast of the Kakhovka Reservoir, 3km northeast of the ZNPP, the Kyiv regime landed two sabotage groups of the armed forces of Ukraine with a total number of up to 60 people on seven high-speed motor boats. The saboteurs were blocked by units of the Russian guard, which were guarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and units of the Russian armed forces approached them to reinforce them. Currently, the destruction of the sabotage group of the armed forces of Ukraine with the involvement of army aviation helicopters is underway.

At about 7am Moscow time, units of the Russian armed forces thwarted an attempt to land a tactical assault force of the armed forces of Ukraine on two self-propelled barges that left Nikopol a few kilometres from the ZNPP. As a result of the fire damage of the Russian armed forces, two self-propelled barges were sunk."

The claims have not been independently verified. An earlier statement by the ministry gave the time of the attack as 6am.

It was obviously ridiculous,

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1565251999754592256

And no, the IAEA Chief didn't confirm anything of the like.

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With Kupyansk captured Valuyki would be well within range of HIMARS and a quick advance north toward the border would put it in gun range. With that Russia will have lost control of every rail route into Ukraine it didn't possess before the war, and all heavy logistics will have to make huge detours through Southern Russia.

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I wonder how the Russians are taking all this?

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1568619450718461953?s=20&t=U8xs_l673...

Oh.

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More on the Donetsk situation:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1568656767395176448

There were DPR conscripts sent to Kherson, who were already whining about being sent away from home. I wonder how they'd react to Ukraine retaking Donetsk...

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This town was one of the largest still held by Russia north of Kharkiv, seems they are evacuating the whole Oblast.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568887188351496193?s=20&t=bcnBgg...

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The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

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The Russian MoD has published a map with their forces still in Kharkiv Oblast, but only staying to the east of the Oskol river (A buffer from UA forces reaching Luhansk borders), so everything to west of the river and north of Kharkiv City is currently going to go through a mass withdrawal.

A hard, but strategically wise decision.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

The Oskil is no Dnipro, and is relatively easy to ford in places. Also more importantly the left bank is not going to be defensible given that every major line of communication in the area is or will soon be under Ukrainian fire control. There isn't going to be much in the way of resupply.

Ukrainian control of Kupyansk effectively leaves Russian forces in Eastern Kharkiv Obl., Northern Donetsk Obl. and Northern Luhansk Obl. in a very precarious position. They can try to hold on here, but ultimately it will be a losing battle.

I mean at the end of the day, a rout is a psychological military disease. Armies are held together by groups cooperation so when you think that the guy next to you won't be there tomorrow, you will turn and run cause the enemy will now outnumber you. The fear of routing and falling behind the rest of your comrades keeps everyone in a a general state of panic and disorder.

This is the big difference between now and Kyiv, where Russia disorderly retreated whereas now it is full flight spurred by actions on the ground not orders from above.

In the old days, when armies were columns and battles occurred in set pieces, it was the task of the leadership and the reserves to rally soldiers who routing and tried to leave the battlefield. Under mass industrial war routs can only be stopped by quarantining the affected area and reforming the line a ways back with un-infected troops who can serve as a rally point for those who previously fled the field. So this is just standard tactics. There is likely already a defensive line behind the frontline in Donetsk to prevent the infection spreading southwards. The million dollar question of course is if the river here will serve as a new frontline or the Kharkiv soldiers will keep running all the way to the border.

Although it is certainly not helping the Russians, losing the Northern Donbas has less to do with the formidable adversary Major Panic and more to do with logistics.

There is a reason the borders pre-24th February settled to look like this,



This reflects the territory that is logistically supportable with the lines of communication available to Russia DPR/LPR. The Russian army is heavily reliant on artillery and heavy armour, meaning rail supply is vital for positions to be supported longterm.

Now here's a map of the rail network.



The rail lines to support the left bank of the Oskil (north of Kramatorsk on the map) are now cut, as is the line to Severodonetsk. To supply these areas now requires big truck convoys to take long trips from Luhansk/Donetsk passing close to Ukrainian-held positions. To say this is suboptimal would be an understatement.

As I've pointed out earlier; since Valuyki (over the border in Russia top center) is now rendered unusable as it is soon to be under Ukrainian fire control, so is the big light green rail line that passes through Northern Luhansk Obl. The loss of Kupyansk leaves Russia in logistically the same position they were in pre-24th February. The whole Northern Donbas is now effectively on borrowed time, that is why Kupyansk is so strategically significant.

It may not happen tomorrow or the day after, but eventually the Russians will have to retreat back to the pre-24th line.