Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

Couldn't they just use the light green rail line from the eastern border of Luhansk? It might take a bit longer and there are other reasons why northern Luhansk is now vulnerable (e.g. potential lack of fortifications), but it looks like they'll still have some rail access.

They could (but they have been able to since 2014 and it didn't get them far then), but as you say it is a big detour that is going to struggle to supply their forces at a rate high enough to hold these areas (I frankly doubt they'll bother, they aren't strategic).

But as I said, the left bank of the Oskil and Severodonetsk are unlikely to hold very long now either after being cut off from Kupyansk, at which point the rail line in Luhansk Obl. will be under Ukrainian fire control at locations closer to Luhansk anyway.

That's why I said it may not happen tomorrow, but it is essentially inevitable now.

[rc18]

It seems the Russians are determined to prove my point even sooner than expected.

They are apparently retreating from Starobilsk, the most significant settlement on the rail line in northern Luhansk Oblast, towards Luhansk city.

The whole area is just not supportable anymore.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1568992045406076930?s=20&t=w9I-fZXev...

[rc18]

Two power facilities illuminated all of Ukraine? That doesn't make any sense to me. I don't trust that image.

That's because the image is fake.

[rc18]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

I'm just glad no street furniture was harmed in the making of this video.

[rc18]

According to the Russian puppet administration in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops in the counteroffensive outnumber the Russian ones at a ratio of 8 to 1.

Link to article here:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569250806150438913

Well, they're hardly going to claim they were sent packing by a force half the size of theirs now are they?

[rc18]

Unlucky:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1569365739512991746?s=20&t=RVMQ2b...

This is a bit too much. I am not convinced that university staff, unless very politically vocal, are valid targets. I mean, come on, this is just some old woman.

Obviously, it is different when it comes to governors, mayors, security forces etc.

Neither partisans nor collaborators are party to the Laws of Armed Conflict, there are no valid or invalid targets, so this is largely an internal matter for Ukrainian law. Naturally, States tend not to care too much for the fate of collaborators during wartime, not least to deter others.

Someone who continues to work for an educational establishment under occupation is generally considered a collaborator, and they risk reprisal from partisans. We also don't know the extent of her collaboration, it wouldn't be surprising if she had been passing information to the Russian occupation for instance. As mentioned above, the fact she had a bodyguard suggests she wasn't a minor player.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1569387270536298497
If true, this is getting a bit out of hand, the EU/US should make a few calls.

What do they expect from teachers... If people with guns show up and tell you you're going to teach in Russian, chances are, you're going to take that over the potentially very unpleasant alternatives.

That's not quite accurate. The full story is here: https://strana.today/news/407217-posle-deokkupatsii-v-ukraine-zaderzhali-rossijskikh-uchitelej-i-budut-ikh-sudit-vereshchuk.html

Russian citizens who came to Ukraine to teach the Russian curriculum in occupied areas are the ones who have been detained and may be punishable for up to 8-12 years (source on sentence length is Shannon Vavra; I don't know what article 438 is). The source seems to imply this would happen to Russian teachers who moved in after the occupation began, but perhaps it overextends to Russian citizens who were already in Ukraine beforehand.

She also said Ukrainian teachers who taught the curriculum will be held responsible for any collaboration activities, but there is no mention of them being detained.

Arresting those already there would seem too draconian, but the teachers who moved in at the behest of the Russian state are akin to the missionaries who moved with the empires of old.

She said "they will also be held accountable before the law, but for collaboration activities". That's because hostile acts by foreigners and collaboration by Ukrainians fall under different articles of the law. The maximum penalty for collaboration by Ukrainian citizens is now 15 years, thanks to a wartime change in the law.

That said, it is very unlikely that most will receive anywhere near that sentence. Not unless what they did led to a loss of life, they clearly did so for the own gain and were not under any duress.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1569338010306768898?t=A1nd_foLhO_9C8AoaW...

Honestly I find this story strange and not really believable.  

You don't advertise the fact you are in the middle of negotiations for the enemy to surrender, allowing their senior officers time to restore order.

This briefing seems like mind games to me.

[rc18]

I am sceptical about this, but the source is well-connected and potentially could have inside info.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569424508020203520?s=20&t=hUzFK2hB...

[rc18]

On a lighter note, we have the first official comments from the Ukrainian tractor brigades.

This farmer found 3 abandoned T-80s at Trostyanets [These probably come from a Russian elite 'Guards' unit that was based there]. Despite not knowing much about tanks, "mechanics is mechanics" and he managed to get one started, and towed the other two. He wanted to keep one of them, but he's upset the meanies of the 93rd Brigade came and took them all away. Ends with the wistful line "I will remember them". I guess that could be about the tanks or the soldiers.

I suggest we start a petition to get this man his tank back.

https://twitter.com/ZloyAtoshnik/status/1569368337884274699?s=20&t=RF9kPPKVw...

[rc18]

On a lighter note, we have the first official comments from the Ukrainian tractor brigades.

This farmer found 3 abandoned T-80s at Trostyanets [These probably come from a Russian elite 'Guards' unit that was based there]. Despite not knowing much about tanks, "mechanics is mechanics" and he managed to get one started, and towed the other two. He wanted to keep one of them, but he's upset the meanies of the 93rd Brigade came and took them all away. Ends with the wistful line "I will remember them". I guess that could be about the tanks or the soldiers.

I suggest we start a petition to get this man his tank back.

https://twitter.com/ZloyAtoshnik/status/1569368337884274699?s=20&t=RF9kPPKVw...

Wait a minute. Is the 93rd Brigade Russian or ukrainian? Is he mad at a Ukrainian unit for recovering the tanks?

Ukrainian. He's complaining, in a wryly humorous way, that they didn't even leave him one.

[rc18]

The problem with Scholz or Macron making phone calls isn't so much the act of doing it, after all Zelensky did ask for them to in the beginning. It's that the phone calls seem to have the effect of influencing those leaders to regurgitate Putin's talking points, rather than changing Putin's mind.

[rc18]

The Russians shared video of a Ka-52 helicopter attacking a Ukrainian barge as proof of a Ukrainian assault on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. The "barge" was actually a bridge support constructed during Nazi occupation in WWII.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1570045755510980612?s=20&t=GZL8ECso...

The funniest part of the story is that it was a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel that originally pointed this out. They even took the piss out of the MoD by saying the seagulls might have come from Ukrainian biolabs...

[rc18]

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

[rc18]

According to German newssources, Russian Duma considers "inviting" Defense Minister Shoigu for a hearing. This is quite unusual. Apparently there's increasing backlash even in Russia over recent military losses. Has first been reported by a Russian newspaper close to the Kremlin. Maybe he's on his way out?

That's worrying.

He might get replaced with someone competent.

[rc18]

I see a lot of people talking about 'partial mobilisation' and bandying around the 300k figure. This is just playing into Putin's hands by regurgitating his rhetoric.

The text of the decree (at least the bit that hasn't been redacted) does not limit the mobilisation, either by location or by who can be mobilised, apart from the usual age and health requirements. It is not a partial mobilisation, it is a general mobilisation.

Putin just has the choice of who to send to the meat grinder first.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1572578647919464449?s=20&t=_WPaaaCs0wH...

This raises a point though. Thanks to the presidential decree it is clearly specified that receiving a prison sentence will result in dismissal from the army.

So why bother protesting and getting a heavy sentence? Go commit some petty crime that results in a short custodial sentence, deliberately get caught, and then you're safe.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

It seems like a pretty dumb decision by EU countries to deny Russian citizes visas right now.

Why would EU countries want a bunch of 5th columnists? They are only fleeing because the war is about to come to them, not because they weren't in favour of the war.

The non-crazies mostly left Russia already.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

It seems like a pretty dumb decision by EU countries to deny Russian citizes visas right now.

Why would EU countries want a bunch of 5th columnists? They are only fleeing because the war is about to come to them, not because they weren't in favour of the war.

The non-crazies mostly left Russia already.

No soldiers, no war.

Well, good job we don't have freedom of movement with you guys anymore...

[rc18]

Looks like the Russians have evacuated Northeast Kherson Oblast. The towns along the Inhulets like Davydiv Brid and the Oleksandrivkas have been liberated.

[rc18]

Sounds like another gesture of goodwill is happening now in Kherson.

[rc18]

Well well well...
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1592583028362342403

That sound you can hear is the Poles smashing the Article 5 button.

[rc18]

If Ukraine is going to launch another offensive, sooner would be better than later:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1611773464309899264

Not really; more bodies just means more mouths to feed, people to arm, wounded to treat etc, stretching already poor logistics. At this point it will just make the Russian army even less effective.

[rc18]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1615823291712774168

Germany: "We're not going to get ahead of our NATO allies in sending tanks."

UK: *sends tanks*

Germany: "Well, obviously we weren't talking about that NATO ally, we meant the Yanks."

[rc18]

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth