Another interesting thing, the rate of invalid/blank votes has gone down significantly.
2018 : 8.79%
2022 : 4.04%
Clear evidence of polarization in the electorate.
Also the vote for the other candidates is much lower. This looks much closer to a 2nd round election.
bolsonaro is the favorite now surely
Very unlikely. He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted. That means he will be around 43.5% at the end. He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.
Is that necessarily true though? The best other candidate seems centre-right. There is no large reservoir of leftist voters left for Lula to mine.
