Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

[Zaybay]

Y'all are being a bit too sure of the primary's trajectory more than 5 months out, and with IA being a reported tossup between the major campaigns. I think its safe to say that the candidate will likely be from the top 3, but who from that group is difficult to parse.

The data we have so far indicate that Warren and Sanders are still rather even right now, with Biden up by about 10 points. Who knows what the data will look like come 1 or even 2 months out from now?

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/adamkelsey/status/1178972826792943623?s=19

[Zaybay]

He needs to actually start spending his money on ads and field offices, especially in states like IA, NH, and NV. Seriously, he is basically sitting on a large fortune right now, and currently has one of the lower burn-rates of the 2020 field. Throwing a couple million into Iowa is sure to be a worthy investment.

It seems like he's starting to realize this, considering the rather large amount of IA ads he just recently bought, but I would personally advise increasing the budget for canvassers and field operations, not buying a temporary boost with television ads.

[Zaybay]

Hopefully he has a full recovery.

[Zaybay]

Hope Sen. Sanders recovers well. Is there any plausible reason he would cancel the ad buy besides that he's seriously considering the future of the campaign? I don't want to jump to conclusions.

The most likely reason is that the Sanders campaign was coordinating a barnstorm of Iowa with the ads on TV, sorta like a 1-2 knockout blow for IA Democrats. But with Sanders out of combat for now, the ads would just play by themselves, making them less effective and still as expensive.

The cancellation came really quick, even before the news had broken that Sanders had went to the doctor earlier, so I have my doubts that the cause was that Sanders thinks that he should possibly drop out(to the chagrin of many posters here). We will see how things develop from here.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1179889705673871360

Barnstorming is back on the menu

[Zaybay]

Sanders to scale back his campaign activity:

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1181689439690604545

It may just be the angle, but Bernie looks purple lol

His wife does too (although less so), so I think it’s something about the lighting.

Yeah, its definitely the lighting. Not only is his wife also pink/purple, the entire scene looks a bit off-color.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/1184331407948222464

[Zaybay]

I think his consideration numbers probably weren't helped by the fact that his heart attack was discussed but it's just one poll, who knows...

Its basically statistically insignificant. A better way to look at it is that overall consideration didnt change for Sanders, which is a bad thing for him, but not a killer(overall consideration is the percentage of the electorate considering a candidate, but it does not preferences).

Anyway, it was a great debate for Sanders, and he has a big rally on Saturday, but we have to wait for the horse-race pollsters to give the verdict.

[Zaybay]

To be honest, its probably smarter to stay more vague on how Medicare for All will be paid. Getting into the weeds of it basically gives candidates like Buttigieg a gold mine of attacks ("How are you going to make sure the poor arent heavily effected by the sales tax your plan places?"). The simple answer of "taxes may go up but costs go down" worked, why bother changing it?

[Zaybay]

I think you two are arguing about whether a glass is half full or half empty.

If you get rid of the filibuster with a vote, then you can pass anything with a simple majority, but so can the opposition when they inevitably claw their way back to power.

Sanders' plan....does literally the exact same thing. The only major differences with his plan is that you dont need to vote to get rid of the filibuster with it. His plan still effectively kills the voting filibuster, as it sets precedent for the Vice President to just consider everything budget reconciliation for future congresses.

No matter how you slice it, almost every presidential nominee wants to do away with the filibuster, they just disagree on how to do so.

[Zaybay]

Obviously he's not literally suggesting that Gates be taxed $100 billion, and his actual wealth tax plan is nowhere near that level. He's pointing out that, minus $100 billion, Gates would still have more than $2 billion. It's a hypothetical taken to an extreme, not a policy suggestion.

That's literally what he's saying though

Again, he has a wealth tax plan that's public, anyone can see for themselves the rates he's suggesting as actual policy. The $100 billion number he's talking about is a point about billionaires in general, and the accumulation of wealth.

"Bill Gates was taxed $100 billion"

Idk, I prefer to listen to his own words

Youre missing the rather important "Say". Its pretty obviously a hypothetical to illustrate a point that you could take $100 billion from Gates and he would still be perfectly fine.

[Zaybay]

Obviously he's not literally suggesting that Gates be taxed $100 billion, and his actual wealth tax plan is nowhere near that level. He's pointing out that, minus $100 billion, Gates would still have more than $2 billion. It's a hypothetical taken to an extreme, not a policy suggestion.

That's literally what he's saying though

Again, he has a wealth tax plan that's public, anyone can see for themselves the rates he's suggesting as actual policy. The $100 billion number he's talking about is a point about billionaires in general, and the accumulation of wealth.

"Bill Gates was taxed $100 billion"

Idk, I prefer to listen to his own words

Youre missing the rather important "Say". Its pretty obviously a hypothetical to illustrate a point that you could take $100 billion from Gates and he would still be perfectly fine.

So you think Bill Gates has over a 100 Billion Dollars in Cash just lying in his bank account lol. The vast majority(At least over 90% if not more) of his wealth comes from the shares he owns in Microsoft and if he sells all his stock to pay this tax he wouldnt even receive close to the 100 billion he needs to pay this tax because the stock of Microsoft would plummet.

I still cant believe you are taking this rather obvious hypothetical to show how rich Bill Gates is extremely seriously.

[Zaybay]

lol.  most of this ad is pretty effective, but I'm not sure how well "queer liberation" plays in an Iowa or South Carolina primary much less a general election.

https://twitter.com/jneeley78/status/1196098116031791107?s=20

Its catering towards the D primary electorate, so I'd assume it works well. Probably not for a general election campaign ad though.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1196814213731274752

[Zaybay]

I still don’t get why Bernie does so poorly with black voters. Like I completely understand why especially older black voters are drawn to Biden but I just don’t get why Bernie does as bad as he does. It’s not like he’s mayor Pete and comes off stiff and awkward when discussing civil rights issues. The man is very woke on the issues and launched his political activism with the civil rights movement. So there has been just this disconnect and I don’t get it.

I've seen an age argument used for this question. The Southern African American electorate is significantly older compared to the White electorate in the Democratic primary, and considering Sanders does poorly with older voters to begin with, its possible that he's hitting a brick wall largely due to age.

The opposite is true for Hispanics. They tend to be significantly younger than the White electorate, which may explain Sanders' ability to appeal to the group.