CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[Zaybay]

I mean, to be honest, it doesnt really matter what candidate the Ds put up. Unless its a murderer, or a pedophile, or something atrocious, the Ds should take Gardner's seat. If Duran were to run, she would probably represent the strongest Progressive candidate, while Hickenlooper and Perlmutter would be more moderate choices.

I have no clue at all why Duran would go for a primary challenge against a heavily entrenched incumbent when she would have a rather moderately easy time dispatching her opponents in a primary for the D nomination against Gardner, but its her choice in the end.

[Zaybay]

Hickenlooper not running

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/23/john-hickenlooper-2020-senate-1182424?cid=apn

Nice!

[Zaybay]

Gardner actually has a credible shot now.

[Zaybay]

If Hickenlooper and Duran arent running, then the field is completely open. Perhaps some of the CO house delegation may enter in now.

[Zaybay]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

Isnt this a little rich coming from you? To write off a candidate due to factors like state partisanship and whatnot?

[Zaybay]

Welp, its official:

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/former-colorado-house-speaker-crisanta-duran-announces-primary-challenge-to-rep-diana-degette

Duran is going to go for primarying DeGette.

[Zaybay]

Oh S***. The field has been blown completely wide open. Either another congressmember, such as Neguse jump in, or the field is left to Mike Johnston and Andrew Romanoff.

[Zaybay]

Uhhh,

So who’s the nominee now
Romanoff, Johnston

This not good news for Colorade Dems.

Maybe they could bring back Ken Salazar or Bill Ritter
Also Denver politicians DeGette or Michael Hancock are both good candidates

But, if big names keep passing on this race, the list will get smaller and smaller. Not a good trend for CO Dems
Race moves from Lean D to Tilt D in my ratings, ultimately I still think polarization dooms Gardner, bit looks better for him now, than at the beginning of the year

It really doesnt matter who the D is. The race is about Gardner, and the fact that he is one of the most unpopular senators in the US. Its highly unlikely he escapes such a label.

[Zaybay]

Senator Neguse, here we go!

He has a great backstory. If everyone else passes, particularly Hick once his Presidential run (presumably) flames out, he should definitely run.

He’d also become the first millennial Senator.

Is Josh Hawley just outside the millennial bracket?

Yep, born in 1979, which would put him in the Gen X bracket (the widely agreed start date for Millennials is 1981).

[Zaybay]

Really, the question isnt whether Gardner can survive, but rather who the D nominee will be.

[Zaybay]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

If I were to take a guess, I would say its a tragedy of plenty. Because the seat is so easy to take, and Gardner is pretty much DOA, there is not really any pressure to run for the seat. People are allowed to make their own decision because "Hey, if I dont go for it, some other Top Dem will take the seat. Me not running doesnt endanger D chances".

A good example is Hickenlooper. He clearly doesnt want to be a senator, but if he was the former governor of say, NC, then he would be begged all the time, and he would be pressured by Ds who would see his seat as pivotal for control of the senate. But he's in CO, so there isnt any real pressure for him to launch a senate bid, and instead he can do what he really wants, run for president.

Thats my take on it anyway. TBH, the Dems who have already announced are completely fine as well, and can easily win the seat.

[Zaybay]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

[Zaybay]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

You are making the error that Gardner is just a generic R and not the most unpopular senator in the US currently. Literally anyone but a pedophile could dispatch him with ease, as the candidate quality for the Rs is so bad. Neguse would, like all the other candidates, beat Cory, because he simply doesnt have the approvals or support to win.

[Zaybay]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

[Zaybay]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

Muh too progressive for suburban moderates!

Get real. He would lose 1-2 points compared to Clinton in JeffCo/Araphoe, but a Democrat still wins with those kind of numbers, especially given he does better in the southwest.

If that is the logic, Id like to ask about why Polis wasnt crushed by the Republican Stapleton in these counties, leading to the Rs taking the governorship. I mean, Polis is just as Progressive as Neguse, so I dont see the logic at all.

[Zaybay]

I must admit, seeing SuburbanNJConservative debate with Olowakandi was hilarious.

Anyway, there are some pretty major flaws with their thinking:

First Partisan Environment

D+8.6: 2018

D+3ish-2020 Projection

5.6 point swing toward Republicans

5 point race right there Stapleton v Walker in 2020

Now consider that Stapleton was a Trump hugging idiot who compared CA with CO. Lst's say Gardner can outperform Stapleton by 2-3

We have a 2-3 point race, and anything can swing that tight of a race, when you factor in Neguse's underperformance it's more like 1.5-2.5 point race, which is a pure Tossup and anything can swing that race towards or against Gardner

Conclusion, Joe Neguse can lose

First off, Ill be nice and assume that the 2020 environment is in fact D+3, just for simplicity.

So, the national environment has swung 5.6 points in favor of the Rs, so now we are at a 5 point race in CO, right? Well, no, simply put. The problem here is that whats applied is a uniform swing, which is unlikely to occur due to demographics, Trump, trends, etc.

Next off, we move to the idea that Gardner is going to outpreform Trump by 2-3 points, which is frankly far fetched. We are talking about one of the most unpopular senators in America, one who has practically thrown every ounce of goodwill with the people of Colorado out the window, according to polling. To say that he would suddenly outpreform Trump by 2-3 points is rather ridiculous. He may outpreform Trump, but not by such a large margin.

Finally, we get to the part where we just stick whatever partisan bias/feel like it part of the equation! There is literally no evidence to suggest that Neguse would somehow underpreform in the suburbs is that he is
1. A progressive
2. He lost the Secretary of state election in 2014, which sounds bad until you realize that Senator Udall, the Dem AG nominee and the Dem State Treasurer nominee all lost as well. Neguse had the 2nd best performance of the losers, losing by 3 points.

Unfortunately, we already have the information we need to see where Gardner's fate lies. We have his job approval(Piss-Poor), we have Trump's GB in the state(Piss-Poor), and we have the overall trend of the state as well(Piss-Poor, for Rs that is). For Gardner, his chances at reelection are, well, Piss-Poor, and almost every Dem in the state would be able to unseat him, especially a current Representative.

[Zaybay]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

[Zaybay]

Honestly, I don't want Hickenlooper to run. I'd rather have a more progressive Democrat replace Gardner.

I don't want Democrats having to invest a lot of resources in Colorado that could be used elsewhere. If Hick can wrap this race up early, I want him in.

Resources are literally the last of our problems as Democrats, we've been outraising the Republicans like crazy even after the 2018 elections.

[Zaybay]

It really is just up to Hickenlooper if he wants the senate seat or not. It genuinely seems that he doesnt actually want to be senator, but the prospect must be tantalizing.

[Zaybay]

A shameful move by the DSCC, but not surprising.

Disagree. I'm glad that the Party sees that Hickenlooper is the most pragmatic option here.

The Party sees him as the safe option, they dont care about his ideology. If Jared Polis, the unabashed Progressive, had been governor from 2010-2018 then he would have likely been courted to be the candidate.

[Zaybay]

Did anybody on here actually think anybody other than Hickenlooper was going to win this primary once he got in? He was the governor for christ sakes. We have no time for the far left trying to make a Sanders vs Clinton out of every primary when RBG may be on her last leg.

Andrew Romanoff almost defeated Bennet in the primary in 2010, when Bennet was endorsed by the then President and lost to Coffman in 2014 by 9 points which the 2016 candidate lost by 9 points.

Wasn't Romanoff endorsed by Bill Clinton (who was more popular than Obama back then), though? I doubt any major Democratic players will endorse someone other than Hickenlooper this time around.

Well, for a more recent example, Jared Polis only won 44% of the vote for his run for governor. I expect Hickenlooper to win, but I dont expect him to win the primary by a large majority. It will most likely be a plurality victory.

[Zaybay]

Looks like the opposition is gonna consolidate around Romanoff. Hickenlooper is still extremely likely to win, but the more consolidation, the smaller the margin.

[Zaybay]

Mike Johnston is OUT.

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1168947535249104897

Johnston must have realized that he had no chance at all of defeating Hickenlooper in the primary, especially since the DSCC seems to have consolidated behind him. The only poll I've seen thus far, released prior to Hickenlooper entering the race, had him leading Johnston by more than fifty percentage points. Johnston's departure from the race should ease Hickenlooper's path to the nomination (which is already going to be handed to him on a silver platter, just like this seat will be).

Nah, Johnston's departure means that the opposition have one singular candidate now; Romanoff. Hickenlooper still likely wins, but Johnston leaving the race makes things a tiny bit more difficult.

[Zaybay]

Mike Johnston is OUT.

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1168947535249104897

Johnston must have realized that he had no chance at all of defeating Hickenlooper in the primary, especially since the DSCC seems to have consolidated behind him. The only poll I've seen thus far, released prior to Hickenlooper entering the race, had him leading Johnston by more than fifty percentage points. Johnston's departure from the race should ease Hickenlooper's path to the nomination (which is already going to be handed to him on a silver platter, just like this seat will be).

Nah, Johnston's departure means that the opposition have one singular candidate now; Romanoff. Hickenlooper still likely wins, but Johnston leaving the race makes things a tiny bit more difficult.

You discount the fact that there are still several other candidates running, and we do not know how much of Johnston's support will go to Romanoff. I suspect that some of it will go to Hickenlooper, and some of it to the others. And Romanoff too, is trailing Hickenlooper by a substantial margin. In my view, it would take a miracle for him to pull off a victory. Which as I've indicated, is not something I wish to see.

The polling we have shows that only Johnston and Romanoff had a base of support, as the others have all polled around 1%. And while we dont know who gets Johnston's support, considering the ideological similarities between Johnston and Romanoff and the fact that they werent supporting Hickenlooper to begin with, its extremely likely a majority flow to Romanoff.