Did Susan Collins just announced her retirement?

[Zaybay]

There are two reasons for the decision she has made:

1. She is trying to move right for the primary, which is good for her, but I wonder if it will work. This is because Collins has been shown to be outright weak in primaries, with her chance to become governor squashed cause she couldnt beat the previous health care administrator. As senator, she was losing, big time, to a public health care official. What if she faced someone strong? What if she faced Paul LePage, or perhaps a former representative, or even a state legislator, she could be in real trouble. If I were her, I would have just gone the moderate path, and allowed myself to stay in power, perhaps as an indie.

2. There is also the other scenario, that she has given up. She has nothing else to do but vote with the GOP and cement their leadership. She is retiring. This is highly possible. With her having such a new record to be attacked on (not to mention the 2$ million already raised against her), it is very possible that she sees it as too much effort and work, and not even a certainty, and has decided to retire.

Also, to those who are saying ME is a weak D state or that Trump won by 3 points forgets what happened in 2016. Collins now has a race if she wins, a race that will depend on whether she can appeal to the Trump voters in the second, and the Clinton voters in the first. Something tells me she will not be competitive this year in the first, so its up to the second, WWC, Trump district, to vote for Collins by enough of a margin to eclipse the first, its larger counterpart. That...is tough, especially if the Ds get someone like Troy Jackson, or Jared Golden, or we see a return affect that basically resets the state at 2012.

Anyway, this is all just speculation, we will have to see what happens. All that is known is that Collins gave the SC a new justice.

[Zaybay]

No if nothing else she made sure she doesn't face a strong primary opposition, the odds that democrats will care about Ford or Kavanaugh two months from now, lot alone two years from now is absurd. They'll find another shiny object to throw a tantrum over within the week and toss their designated victim Dr.Ford to the curb.

So the Dems will forget about this and go back to supporting Collins, while the Rs will just pack up their bags and remember that she voted for Kavanaugh? Pick one, either both forget, or its still an issue.

[Zaybay]

^a more salient problem for Collins than just the repercussions of the Kavanaugh vote, per se, could be that it (along with some of the other votes she’s taken this term) damages her popularity to the point where she can’t recover it. In other words, I doubt this will be the vote that sinks her career in and of itself. But maybe like a last straw if you will.

Though I still think she’ll be able to trick enough of the asinine moderates again when the time comes. Unless she retires or is primaried our.

This. The vote will likely not be remembered, what will be, however, is her popularity. Voting for Kavanaugh will definitely damage it, and, due to the nature of her likely primary, for she must move right, its very possible(perhaps likely) that Collins wont be popular anymore. Heck, we got a poll a while back that had Collins already dropping with Indies and Dems, what will happen now?

There is also side effects. Now that she has done this, its more likely a stronger D will run. That D will be backed up with large cash reserves, due to the fact she voted for Kavanaugh. Dems will target her more, seeing her as not an ally, and Republicans will still not care, because of her votes for other items. This in itself, the ripple effect of her vote, will cause much more trouble than the actual impact of her vote.

[Zaybay]

I love the takes that Collins is now safe from a primary challenger because Republicans will remember her Kavanaugh vote, while also being safe from a general because voters will not remember her Kavanaugh vote. The opposite has also been prevalent on this thread so far.

What is most likely to occur from this event is a mix of two things.
1. Republicans still challenge her in a primary, because she is seen as too moderate

2. She loses some standing with Ds and Is, as she has been this entire election cycle, but no collapse.

People seem to forget how weak Collins is for a primary. She was literally not favored against the former health commissioner in a gubernatorial primary, and last I checked, people can name a senator, but I doubt the former Health Commissioner comes to mind often. In a poll of her vs literally anyone else, she was down 20/80. And ME is not a state with a weak R bench, even though a good chunk will be wiped out. I would see her approval, however, before jumping to conclusions.

[Zaybay]

Susan Collins was never vulnerable to a 2020 primary challenge for 2 reasons:

1. Republicans are smart enough to know that it would cost them the seat. If they were not this smart, she would have been primaried in 2014.

2. The Democratic wave of 2018 was guaranteed to knock out all the potential high profile primary challengers, meaning that Collins would never have been up against a serious candidate in a primary.

That line of logic is complete garbage. Parties arent single entities, they are people and groups. Its very easy for literally anyone to challenge her, and people are not calculating the risks and rewards for the party when doing so. Look at IN in 2012, where a congressman beat out the popular and well respected senator. which flipped the seat, or perhaps MA in 2018, where a radical preacher got 35% of the vote against Charlie Baker, or DE 2010, or MO 2012, or the NC primary, or WV 2018 or any other primary really. There is little political strategy that goes into primary challenges, and if the candidate thinks they can win, they go for it. No one is going "all right, I want this job, and I have the staff and support to do so, but if I do it it puts a seat into competitive territory, and I dont trust myself to win the seat, so I will forgo the chance" -no one thinks like this.

And for your second reason, if I was out of the job of say, Representative of the Second district, it would be rather easy for me to just go after the senate seat. That is just an example, and not meant for anyone to think I believe that it will be him to challenge Susan. But there will be state senators, representatives, commissioners, and others out of a job, and that can be an impetus to seek higher office.

My point is that, in a state where the Rs have gone full Trumpism, there will likely be a primary challenge, and based on previous data, it will be a real fight.