Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Zaybay]

Looks like our chances of getting a trifecta have gone from 75% to 99.9%

[Zaybay]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

I just read their plan, that you can find there: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?151+ful+SJ284S1

Basically a 7 members commission:
-One appointed by the Speaker of the House
-One appointed by the President Pro Tempore
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state senate
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state house
-The Auditor of Public Accounts (an office that is appointed by the governor)
-the State Inspector General (an office appointed by the governor)
-the Executive Director of the Virginia State Bar


It would need to follow some criteria: contiguous and compact territories etc etc

In order to be approved: it would need to get 5 votes and at least 1 from each party. In case it is impossible to have the 5 votes: the 2 plans that would have got the most votes would be sent to the Virginia Supreme Court and they would decided which one to implement.


So basically: THIS IS A SCAM PLAN!!!!!
1) Elected officials would still have big influence as they appoint 4 members and it's them who who appoint all the members of the Virginia Supreme Court.

2) Virginia republicans could literally sabotage it. They refuse to pass any of these plans and in the end 2 plans pass: a) one supported by the 2 republicans 2) one adopted by the 5 other members.

The VA supreme court would then decided to pick the republican plan as the VA supreme court is majority republican appointed.

Hopefully, the Ds can see the way the wind is blowing and veto the proposition.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1035273481087266816

Woohoo!

[Zaybay]

snip

Just me nitpicking the article

1. The article doesnt state how many D reps. actually support the bill, only naming 2 it looks like. Its very possible that not that many are joining on, or that most Ds are joining on, we cant be sure.

2. The Ds that did support the measure did make something clear. This proposal wouldnt effect 2021 redistricting. So its very possible that, perhaps, they are trying to build good will with the public.

But this is truly an HP move on the VADEMs part. There is no reason to not just throw it to the courts. I hope Northam lays down the law on these reps.

[Zaybay]

Northam will veto any map that comes out of the legislature, wants the courts to do the redraw:

https://twitter.com/RTDNEWS/status/1047241032151289856

Thank god, Northam has a spine! Funny, I remember back in 2017 when he was believed to be rather spineless, looks like those rumors can be put to rest.

[Zaybay]

For states that do off year elections like VA , can they do ballot measures in the state elections? Putting independent redistricting on the ballot for next fall could be a smart move. I honestly think any D gubernatorial candidate between now and '20 should be hammering the hell out of running on independent redistricing. Especially Edwards and Cooper.

Doing so after 2019 is the equivalent of trying to fight the GOP with both hands tied behind your back.

[Zaybay]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

[Zaybay]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

I was mostly saying "no" to Solid saying "stop talking about nonpartisan redistricting commission." I mean, why? Why should we not talk about it? Solid can be partisan af sometimes and it can be off-putting, as he always talks as if that is THE way and everyone else is wrong and that is it, end of discussion. And I say this as a pretty partisan person myself.

I kind of like Gass3268's idea. I agree that unilateral disarmament is pretty stupid given Republicans seem pro-whatever-wins-them-elections, which has included voter suppression, court packing (and other judiciary-related power grabs) and insane levels of gerrymandering. Democrats need to take the gloves off and fight back until this fight is settled.

But let's be clear about something. As far as I am concerned, gerrymandering is election rigging. It's just fancier than stuffing ballot boxes or creative Jim Crow-like ideas. Gerrymandering constantly gets talked about as if it's just some normal event that we all hate but can't seem to stop. The reality is that it is greedy, corrupt politicians rigging elections so they can cling to power regardless of what the people want. It is something that belongs in 3rd world countries, not America. And the fact that we can't seem to end something so blatantly corrupt is just amazing.

This, so much this.

The unfortunate thing is that I suspect if Dems gain the trifecta, the pro-gerry side will outweigh the anti-gerry side. Incumbents in red seats like VA-07 want protection, passing reforms in VA take time as shown above, and this dem legislature has no problem with gerrys - see the Senate map.

Good. Perhaps then we wont need to get a GCB of 6-8 to win the house.

[Zaybay]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

I was mostly saying "no" to Solid saying "stop talking about nonpartisan redistricting commission." I mean, why? Why should we not talk about it? Solid can be partisan af sometimes and it can be off-putting, as he always talks as if that is THE way and everyone else is wrong and that is it, end of discussion. And I say this as a pretty partisan person myself.

I kind of like Gass3268's idea. I agree that unilateral disarmament is pretty stupid given Republicans seem pro-whatever-wins-them-elections, which has included voter suppression, court packing (and other judiciary-related power grabs) and insane levels of gerrymandering. Democrats need to take the gloves off and fight back until this fight is settled.

But let's be clear about something. As far as I am concerned, gerrymandering is election rigging. It's just fancier than stuffing ballot boxes or creative Jim Crow-like ideas. Gerrymandering constantly gets talked about as if it's just some normal event that we all hate but can't seem to stop. The reality is that it is greedy, corrupt politicians rigging elections so they can cling to power regardless of what the people want. It is something that belongs in 3rd world countries, not America. And the fact that we can't seem to end something so blatantly corrupt is just amazing.

This, so much this.

The unfortunate thing is that I suspect if Dems gain the trifecta, the pro-gerry side will outweigh the anti-gerry side. Incumbents in red seats like VA-07 want protection, passing reforms in VA take time as shown above, and this dem legislature has no problem with gerrys - see the Senate map.

This, so much this.

The conclusion being, however, the opposite of yours - that Dems need to take off the gloves and go all-out. Draw a 26-0 map in New York. Abolish the independent redistricting commission in California (find a way, using whatever means necessary) and draw a 53-0 map. Draw a 17-0 map in Illinois.

ONLY after that will Dems have the leverage to force Republicans to come to the table and agree to a fair, enforceable national system for Congressional elections. Anything much short of that, and Republicans will simply continue to gerrymander regardless of whether Dems want to stop in blue states.

Your preferred course of action of simply tying Dems hands in blue states while allowing Republicans free reign in red states will simply lead to Republicans continuing to rig elections in states where they control the process in perpetuity, which means Dems will permanently have to win, as Zaybay says, with a GCB+7 or whatever to control the house.

On this issue, we have much to learn from Ronald Reagan. Peace through strength. Time for an unprecedented arms buildup - that is the only way to bring the Soviets (Republicans) to the table for an agreement of MUTUAL, rather than UNILATERAL one-sided disarmament. The analogy here to nuclear arms limitation is exactly the right one, because like nukes can destroy the world, gerrymandering can destroy democracy.

Exactly! This is what the Dems should do! We are at a permanent disadvantage if we do not take off the gloves.

The optimal plan would be to get a trifecta on NY, MN, VA, PA, CO, NM, IA, and NV, while blocking R gerrymanders in UT, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA, and FL by 2020. This would force the Rs into a minority that only a wave could get them out of. Doing this would cause Rs to suddenly go "what garbage is this? Gerrymandering sucks now!", which will bring more to the table. That is the goal.

Funny, only gerrymandering can stop gerrymandering.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1087876252973891585

The VAGOP is officially dead.