SC GOV 2018- megathread... James Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R)

[Zaybay]

Its possible, but it would require some funding to do, and I dont think James has been fundraising that well.

[Zaybay]

The fact Haley only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC isn't as much of an R stronghold as many believe. I would be pleasantly surprised if it happens though. Right now I'd say Lean R.

I think SC will continue to be Safely Republican for a while when it comes to Presidential Elections- But like many states- Governors races tend to offer the best opportunity for a minority party to win a statewide race.
I also don't think it would be out of the question (ordinarily) to elect a Dem Senator (if the right candidate and matchup happened)... But that probably will not happen for a while- Since I think Graham is safe for many years to come & he usually gets a fair amount of crossover vote... and Scott is probably pretty safe for a while as well  since I think he gets a decent amount of crossover votes from Black Dems.  Although I think Scott would be vulnerable before Graham- as I think Scott is definitely a sub par Senator overall.

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

[Zaybay]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... He always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he would get if he was the only Black candidate on the ballot (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Haley and Lindsey were rather poor candidates, though Haley has defiantly improved since her job promotion. Lindsey suffers from a lackluster approval from the state, and is sort of always destined to win by low margins.

There have been many studies that show that the ethnicity of a candidate, such as AA, does not effect the way a person would vote. AAs will usually vote for the Democrat, even if they are white, and the R is Black. Its actually more pronounced with the gender of the candidate, considering the D base is mostly female and the R base is mostly male.

[Zaybay]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... He always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he would get if he was the only Black candidate on the ballot (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Haley and Lindsey were rather poor candidates, though Haley has defiantly improved since her job promotion. Lindsey suffers from a lackluster approval from the state, and is sort of always destined to win by low margins.

There have been many studies that show that the ethnicity of a candidate, such as AA, does not effect the way a person would vote. AAs will usually vote for the Democrat, even if they are white, and the R is Black. Its actually more pronounced with the gender of the candidate, considering the D base is mostly female and the R base is mostly male.

It probably varies by state & region... but in South Carolina & most of North Carolina the overall studies you noted ... do not hold true.  And there are perfectly valid reasons for such votes in the rural south (which describes almost all of SC & most of NC).  I grew up in this area and at least anecdotally from those I know and talk to- minorities are more likely to vote for a minority on the ballot... and as I said above- imo there are very valid reasons to do so.

Regarding Tim Scott always getting 5% more votes... He is in no way stronger than Haley or Graham (although I think personally he is obviously strong than Trump... but I'm sure other may disagree).

Maybe its different depending on the area. Nationwide, its negligible, a 2% shift, but that being 5% in some parts of the south could be true.

[Zaybay]

Smith may be disqualified due to a failed attempt at a fusion ticket. He tried to get the nominations of the Working Familes, Greens, and Libertarians. He later withdrew these before they could vote, but the Libertarians still voted on his nomination and voted him down. Due to the fact SC has a sore loser law, this means that under a certain interpretation, he can not run under the D nomination due to the fact the Libertarians rejected him. Although the SC electoral commission says he's fine, he could still be forced off the ballot if he's challenged in court about it and loses.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article216719320.html

That is incredibly worrying, but I doubt it goes anywhere.