FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Scott leads among South Florida Hispanics

[Zaybay]

Man this really is moving towards Scott, Atlas red avatars are blind to the competitive nature of this race for some reason. Nelson may have ran a good campaign in 2000 but his campaign this year has been poor so far (his ads are atrocious)

No it's not. This race is still a toss up despite Scott spending $20M+ on TV ads.

^
This race has been fluctuating back and forth even though Scott has been pelting the airwaves since he announced. This is what he did in 2010, and 2014, and it always ends with him having a close election. Why? Because he always makes the same mistake. He doesnt build up a ground game, no GOTV effort, and many voters have expressed annoyance at Rick Scotts ads.

Also this weird fear that Nelson is neglecting Latinos and doing absolutely nothing to reach out is rather false, or at least a twist on the truth. Nelson has been putting many spanish only ads and has worked with progressive Latino groups. Rick Scott has done similar. No candidate is forgetting about this group. This fear all stemmed from a politico article, from a writer who was famous for writing in depth analysis about "How the Dems ruined their chances with their gov. shutdown" "Why Dems should not go against the Trump tax cut" and many others.

Also, this is just my opinion. A poll that tries to poll one demographic group, especially from one that many dont consider English as a primary language, is rather faulty. Cubans are a plurality in the south of FL, but they are usually over represented in polling. They speak English the best, and so are able to answer automatic polling, and this group has traditionally leaned R. Rick Scott was said to have won Hispanics in 2014 due to exit polling, but further polling shows this was not the case.

This race is tilt-D, but I think it will be close, but with a Nelson advantage.

[Zaybay]

Let's hope Nelson is doing better with the old white vote than Hillary, otherwise this looks bad.

Narrator: He was

[Zaybay]

And pundits thought Crist would beat Scott, this will be a nailbiter, just like that Gubernatorial race.

He almost did, it was one of the closest races on 2014. Saying that Chist would win would be a normal response. Many pundits think Claire is safe, others think Hawley has it, thats what happens with a tossup race.

Though I guess you have been trolling on this entire thread(and website, for that matter), soo, ehh.

[Zaybay]

And pundits thought Crist would beat Scott, this will be a nailbiter, just like that Gubernatorial race.

He almost did, it was one of the closest races on 2014. Saying that Chist would win would be a normal response. Many pundits think Claire is safe, others think Hawley has it, thats what happens with a tossup race.

Though I guess you have been trolling on this entire thread(and website, for that matter), soo, ehh.

Someone whose thinks Dems are gonna win 13 gov mansions shouldnt be calling someone a troll or hack.

1. Im only predicting 11. I just chose D for Alaska, cause I think its likely Walker will be the one to drop out.
2. You, along with Limo and Hofoid, are like the triumvirate of trolls on this forum.
3. You literally are still reiterating that Scott won Hispanics, though multiple posters have disprove it.

[Zaybay]

Junk. Even if Scott wins, he won’t come close to winning among Latinos.

He has a Latino LT Gov Lopz-Cantera

and he still lost Latinos by a good margin.

[Zaybay]

If I were a Democrat, I would be pretty terrified that Scott hasn't even tapped into his own fortune yet and he's still outspending Nelson exponentially.

Ehh, money is very useful, but its only up to a point. A candidate having 10 million vs one with 20 million will have no difference in voting numbers, compared to a candidate with 100,000 vs 1 million.
Other factors, such as name rec, and likability, are more influential than money, but money is usually needed to get these known to the public.
Rick Scott is really burning through money, but even if he tapped in to his personal account, it would start to have less and less of an impact. It matters more if Nelson has/uses money at this point, not Rick's accounts.

[Zaybay]

Im surprised we are still talking about a flawed poll that polled one specific demographic group in one specific area.

[Zaybay]

If I were a Democrat, I would be pretty terrified that Scott hasn't even tapped into his own fortune yet and he's still outspending Nelson exponentially.

Ehh, money is very useful, but its only up to a point. A candidate having 10 million vs one with 20 million will have no difference in voting numbers, compared to a candidate with 100,000 vs 1 million.
Other factors, such as name rec, and likability, are more influential than money, but money is usually needed to get these known to the public.
Rick Scott is really burning through money, but even if he tapped in to his personal account, it would start to have less and less of an impact. It matters more if Nelson has/uses money at this point, not Rick's accounts.

There was a recent investigation that concluded that more advertisement correlates with a higher vote share, though not with increased turnout. And more money = more advertisement.

But its up to a point. There is a ceiling to how much advertisement/money can effect a race. Look at 2016, where Hillary outspent Trump by a wide margin, but was not able to win. Or in PA-18, where Saccone outspent Lamb almost 10-1. Or with OC, being outspent 20-1.

[Zaybay]

I don't know if my dad is trolling me or just growing senile but just an hour ago he was blabbering to me about how is growing increasingly confident in Nelson and Bredesen, and thinks the Parkland kids and Broco will boost Nelson to victory... and when I said how the frig can you be confident in Nelson he is within the moe for the past over half year, sure you can make an argument that he will edge out but to say that you have high confidence and are not concerned is kind of weird. And he was like son we got the momentum and turnout on our side in this blue wave, it'll be enough to secure him. He also thinks that dems hold every seat and pickup TN, AZ, and NV. The only one he could plasuibly see flipping is ND, and yet still he looked at me crazy when I said if Daschle did not survive neither will Heitkamp.

Sounds to me your father is looking at the environment. At its current rate, a modest estimate assumes D10. If this is true, or even higher, then yeah, he is correct. If it lowers, then no.