CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

Ann Kirkpatrick is returning to Congress. She’s ahead of Matt Heinz by 10% (and 6,000 votes).

*600

[Zaybay]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

[Zaybay]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.

FL always has a primary turnout advantage, and, in fact, we narrowed it, fro 56-44, to 53-47.

What was it in a more Dem-friendly year, like say 2012?

well, I wouldnt use 2012 as a benchmark, due to the noncompetitive primary from top to down ballot for the Ds and the semi-competitive race on the R side, but here it is. These are for the senate race, as that had D primary numbers.

D-869,619
R-1,120,643

57/43
The R presidential had way more voters, but there was no D primary.
2016 showed a similar result, 57/43.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

[Zaybay]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

Ok then, what's your guess?

probably a 2-3 point margin in favour of Nelson, which equates to, around, 300,000-400,000 vote difference.

[Zaybay]

This will be rather exciting on the D side. Its very possible the state gets a new SoS, in Zakim.

The 3rd will be rather interesting, even though all of them are running on the same platform, there are some niches(Koh sides with Marty Walsh, L'Italien is the most Left, etc.).

The 7th will be close, though I personally think Capuano pulls it out. The 8th could be an upset, but I dont see it happening.

And it will be interesting to see Baker's margin against his Conservative opponent.

The D governor race primary seems to lean towards Jay, but Bob could easily stage an upset, though it doesnt really matter if Baker wins, and he stays clean until election day.

[Zaybay]

Dont disappoint MA!

[Zaybay]

http://www.wbur.org/

The local NPR site has a map by town (there are a lot of towns, but not too many so you can have an easy map).

I walked to my polling station which took a while and there was a Greg Henning guy out front.  That's for DA in Boston.  I always take the brochure but by that time I had made up my mind.

I voted for Josh Zakim, Brianna Wu, and Bob Massie.

excellent ticket, I voted for Josh Zakim as well, and Bob as well, but I dont have a competitive house primary.

[Zaybay]

First results

Baker 63%/ Lively 37%

Jay leading 66%/Bob 34%

Gavin leading Zakim 67%/33%

and, surprisingly

Neal 54%/46% against an unknown primary challenger

[Zaybay]

Only 400 votes in guys, dont draw conclusions. MA doesnt early vote.

[Zaybay]

You guys realize only 1% of the votes are in, right? There is little we can go off of here.

[Zaybay]

Would have been a lot nicer to take out Lynch rather than Capuano.

[Zaybay]

Lori Trahan     4,055    35.8%    
Rufus Gifford     2,297    20.3%
Daniel Koh     1,359    12.0%    
Juana Matias     882     7.8%    
Barbara L'Italien 842            7.4%    
16% in

Barbara L'Italien completely crashing and burning so far in MA-07. Damn. Trahan out to a surprisingly strong start, interesting considering I was under the impression that it was likely to be one of Koh, Gifford, and L'Italien.

Lori is basically a shade more left than Koh, hoping for a Gifford victory.

[Zaybay]

Baker is doing pretty badly in his primary.

Worse than Phil Scott, actually.

[Zaybay]

In other news, Rachel Rollins, seen as the most progressive candidate in the race for Suffolk County DA (pretty impressive criminal justice reform stances), beat frontrunner Greg Henning in that primary.

There is also a race for the DA happening in Middlesex, but I cant find the results for that one.

[Zaybay]

Wait. Why are there 50K more votes cast in the AG Dem Primary than the Gov Primary?

thats the Baker indies right there. I thought it would be more, but its still big, I guess.

[Zaybay]

Fun fact: There's a town in western Massachusetts named Florida.  Scott Lively, the Anita Bryant of Massachusetts, is beating Charlie Baker there.

It's weird there's sort of a line running north-south Florida to Tolland where he's doing well.  Any idea why?
Is Scott Lively known at all in Mass., or were people picking him not knowing who he is ?

Hes basically representing the more conservative candidate. Look at Phil Scott, he got a similar percentage. This is why. The R base is growing more conservative, and their candidates arent.

[Zaybay]

Kind of amazing that the GOP is winning 2 counties (Barnstable & Plymouth) and on the verge of winning a third (Worcester) with a 67-33 ballot split in favor of Democrats.

Worcester: 35505-34547              
Plymouth: 27288-23807    
Barnstable: 17981-16273

Not really that crazy. If Baker wins his reelection(incredibly likely), then these 3 counties will be Atlas Blue.

[Zaybay]

APPARENT WINNER:

U.S. House District 3

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lori Trahan
18,283   21.7%   
Daniel Koh
18,144   21.5   
Juana Matias
12,890   15.3   
Barbara L'Italien
12,808   15.2   
Rufus Gifford
12,638   15.0   
Alexandra Chandler
4,793   5.7   
Beej Das
1,475   1.7   
Jeffrey Ballinger
1,357   1.6   
Bopha Malone
1,334   1.6   
Leonard Golder
575   0.7   
84,297 votes, 99% reporting (224 of 225 precincts)

today is a dark day

[Zaybay]

APPARENT WINNER:

U.S. House District 3

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lori Trahan
18,283   21.7%   
Daniel Koh
18,144   21.5   
Juana Matias
12,890   15.3   
Barbara L'Italien
12,808   15.2   
Rufus Gifford
12,638   15.0   
Alexandra Chandler
4,793   5.7   
Beej Das
1,475   1.7   
Jeffrey Ballinger
1,357   1.6   
Bopha Malone
1,334   1.6   
Leonard Golder
575   0.7   
84,297 votes, 99% reporting (224 of 225 precincts)

today is a dark day

Why? Was she the moderate in this race?

No, that was Koh. She was the second most moderate candidate and overall a rather boring and flip flopping candidate. Koh would have been better.

[Zaybay]

Koh supports single payer and a $15 minimum wage. Trahan does not.

#TeamKoh

does he? Welp, lets go Koh!

[Zaybay]

Well, we've answered the question of how best to gerrymander 2 Republican-friendly districts in Massachusetts.

It would only be one tilt R seat and one tossup, but yeah, that is the best way to do it.

[Zaybay]

Carper's opponent in the primary, Harris, has published her plan to take the seat in an article:

https://medium.com/kerri-evelyn-harris-for-delaware/how-we-win-my-final-report-39d0d94b42aa