Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Zaybay]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

Interesting. Whats keeping her with the GOP? My guess is its a Hawaii situation, where most are in the same party, since you cant have any power if your in the minority.

[Zaybay]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

Wow, thats a large difference. Well, hope Kobach is the R. Also, why, why are you here Orman? Go away. Please. Go away.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180803/gop-consultants-say-kobach-campaign-has-white-nationalists-on-payroll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...is anyone surprised?

.....oh, wait, should I, ok.


GASP, HOW COULD THIS HAVE HAPPENED?!!?! I EXPECTED MORE FROM HIM!!!!!

[Zaybay]

If Kobach wins this, which is becoming more and more likely, this race is pure tossup. Hes that bad. Literally anyone else and this race is lean-likely R.

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

True, but Kelly was really strong in the primary, and has lead in polling, so I have hope. And with Kobach, Orman may siphon more votes from the R than the D, especially since he chose an R for his running mate.

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

True, but Kelly was really strong in the primary, and has lead in polling, so I have hope. And with Kobach, Orman may siphon more votes from the R than the D, especially since he chose an R for his running mate.

Well, John Doll is former Democratic congressional candidate in KS-01. He became a Republican only after understanding, that Democratic label is very toxic in this part of the state. In fact - Doll has the lowest ACU rationg of ALL Republican state legislators in nation for 2017... So, in his case term "RINO" may be not derogatory, but simple fact))))

I know, but the R is what voters really care about, you know. Im not happy that Doll switched on us, but if he can get some R voters, the moderate ones who dont want to vote for Koback or Kelly, then "please proceed"

[Zaybay]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

To answer your question, this is KS, a state that has, if I recall, only elected one D senator in its entire life. The state is ancestrally R, and so there are many D voters who are still registered R, a sort of WV scenario. We were never going to beat them in the primary, but this is still a great increase from the previous years.

[Zaybay]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

To answer your question, this is KS, a state that has, if I recall, only elected one D senator in its entire life. The state is ancestrally D, and so there are many D voters who are still registered R, a sort of WV scenario. We were never going to beat them in the primary, but this is still a great increase from the previous years.

Well, there were two Democratic governors elected in recent decades. Kathleen Sebelius won two terms and her reelection in 2006 was by a substantial margin.

Check the primary numbers for that election:

Kathleen(only D running)-87,499 votes

All Rs-294,504 votes

Compared to 2018( as of writing this post)

All Ds-152,856 votes

All Rs-311,009 votes

[Zaybay]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

That would be the greatest, and would make the seat lean D, IMO.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

wow, Im actually on edge. This feels like some sort of drama.

[Zaybay]

Kelly needs to encourage Orman to drop out and be a running mate on a unity ticket of sorts.

Seriously, if I was Orman I'd jump at the opportunity. This is by far the best chance he has for statewide office.

He's a moderate independent rich guy. He is absolutely full of himself.

I am reminded of the constant humility shown by ACO and Bernie Sanders.

Those two are not that full of themselves. Helping other candidates and campaigning doesnt make you full of themselves. Running an indie campaign in a state where your aligned party would win, such as Indie Con Trillo in RI, or Orman in KS, is being full of yourself.

[Zaybay]

Kelly needs to encourage Orman to drop out and be a running mate on a unity ticket of sorts.

Seriously, if I was Orman I'd jump at the opportunity. This is by far the best chance he has for statewide office.

He's a moderate independent rich guy. He is absolutely full of himself.

I am reminded of the constant humility shown by ACO and Bernie Sanders.

Those two are not that full of themselves. Helping other candidates and campaigning doesnt make you full of themselves. Running an indie campaign in a state where your aligned party would win, such as Indie Con Trillo in RI, or Orman in KS, is being full of yourself.

IMHO - they are. Imagine himself as Kingmakers, and trying to play this role, is (especially in case of AOC, who is nobody yet) exactly that.

Kingmaker? Of what? Who have they played kingmaker for? All Ive seen them do is campaign and endorse candidates, which is what Harris, Biden, Booker, and Gillibrand have done.

Name one race that they played kingmaker for.

[Zaybay]

Kelly needs to encourage Orman to drop out and be a running mate on a unity ticket of sorts.

Seriously, if I was Orman I'd jump at the opportunity. This is by far the best chance he has for statewide office.

He's a moderate independent rich guy. He is absolutely full of himself.

I am reminded of the constant humility shown by ACO and Bernie Sanders.

Those two are not that full of themselves. Helping other candidates and campaigning doesnt make you full of themselves. Running an indie campaign in a state where your aligned party would win, such as Indie Con Trillo in RI, or Orman in KS, is being full of yourself.

IMHO - they are. Imagine himself as Kingmakers, and trying to play this role, is (especially in case of AOC, who is nobody yet) exactly that.

Kingmaker? Of what? Who have they played kingmaker for? All Ive seen them do is campaign and endorse candidates, which is what Harris, Biden, Booker, and Gillibrand have done.

Name one race that they played kingmaker for.

They behave identically with Harris, Biden and so on. I understand that in Sanders case, But repeat - AOC is a nobody (future congresswoman from 1 of 435 districts), and behaves identically. As if HER personal support matters something...

I would like to remind you that Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, and Joe Kennedy have done the same thing. If people want her endorsement, then she is allowed to endorse, nothing wrong with that.