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andjey
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,504
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« on: April 18, 2019, 10:57:47 AM » |
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About 20%. If they will win White House, than they need to gain 3 seats in the Senate, so
R gain AL (Safe R, Lean R with Moore)
D gain CO (Likely D, much closer to Safe D)
D gain AZ (Tossup, closer to Lean D)
D gain NC (Pure Tossup)
It is very optimistic scenario for Dems, but Senate will be 51-49 Republican
Now I see very little chance (about 5-10%), that Dem nominee will win in Georgia, I am sure, that Dems will lose Montana (without Bullock, Democrat winning Montana is unrealistic) and Maine (Susan Collins is still popular and Maine isn't safe blue state)
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