Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

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I wonder how many Lieberman voters want there to be a Government and will not vote for Yisrael Beiteinu?

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What will happen to the Joint List? Will it stay the same or some of the radicals will split off?

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https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

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Taking the cake for the most deplorable party in this election, somehow even exceeding the fascist-theocratic union of the Jewish Home and Otzma: Larisa Trimbuvler, the wife of Rabin's murderer Yigal Amir, founded a new party named "Just Trial" that explicitly demands a retrial for Amir and "other innocent prisoners", as well as the usual bs of "judicial reform".
Obviously, no chance to pass the threshold.

Why do people think that Amir didn't kill Rabin?

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Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

I've heard about the latter, lead by Gilad Alper (Zehut #2 so pretty prominent in libertarian circles). What about the New Liberals? Haven't heard of them.

Also, I'm compelled to be edgy and say the D avatar is for you, but we need to keep some ORDER among the Israeli posters (hint hint Danny go R! hint)

The new Liberals are led by Libby Molad who was number 3 Zehut with the rest of the Zehut crew. Oh and the support of Prof. Omer Moav. They’re more “serious”

How is a JL voter who dislikes Marxism a D? Maybe I should go O? Existential crisis here

My politics are way weirder than yours, so I just stick with my indy avatar.

Why do you support Joint List instead of something more mainstream like Meretz or Labor?

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Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

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Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

I do wonder, what would be a The Jewish Home-Joint List voter?

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Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Why in the world would any Arab support Likud and why does Bibi think that Arabs could support Likud.

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When will there be a government if there's a 4th or a 5th election?

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Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

Likud's strategy right now is obviously firing up the right wing base. I don't know if they think they can be genuinely competitive with a bump in right wing turnout or if their internal data is showing a severe lag in right wing turnout that they're trying to fix, but if there is one thing we've learned this last year it's that Bibi's crazy lurches to the right at the last minute don't work like they did in 2015.

I don't think that this is even strategic. Likud promised a "positive campaign" this time but they obviously can't do anything else but an extremely negative campaign. It's how Netanyahu is clinging into power for years.

Also re: previous post. Yeah, I know the people aren't stupid (it was a Trump line he used at the people of Iowa ), though it's tempting to go that way when Netanyahu is so popular.
I hope you're right with your optimistic outlook (electorally) but my view is that we really just can't know- the narrative of Bibimentum and KL collapse could depress turnout of soft center-right and center Gantz supporters, or the fear of Bibi at 61 could have the opposite effect. My guess is that the right will probably improve on their round 2 numbers and pass the left this time, but it's hard to say and it's a game of turnout. Personally, I'm seeing a dangerous lethargy among some people who voted KL but I hope it's a false anecdote.

Yeah, to be clear, I'm pretty nervous. I wouldn't be surprised at a whole array of different outcomes. There has been such little polling, and there is bound to be some voter fatigue, so the uncertainty is high enough to be a little terrifying.

I am doing a report in school on a international event and I'm talking about Israel's voter fatigue.

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The main thing that I would consider to be "destabilizing and backwards" has been the attitude of the Palestinian leadership - which is why even its Arab allies have abandoned it. Meanwhile, the country you, as an anti-Zionist Palestinian, want destroyed, is stronger than ever; and today, it has probably elected a government that will make it even stronger

You do realize that Likud's been in power for a while.

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The two Ballot boxes submitted so far from Jerusalem were both from the Arab quarter, so we get this weird, albeit temporary, sight of Jerusalem voting for the joint list.

Imagine if someone waking up in the morning sees that on their phone, and they were a settler.

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I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

Imagine being that Otzma voter in that Arab Village, the person who most likely voted for Otzma was mostly likely a troll.

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Blimey this might be happening, the minority government. Gear up for civil war lads

How can that even work without anything being passed?

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Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

Can't wait for your post on why you support Joint List.  Imagine if the Joint List seat count reaches 20.

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Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

Can't wait for your post on why you support Joint List.  Imagine if the Joint List seat count reaches 20.

I probably won't. I physically can't vote homophobes and Balad in. But Orly Levy stole our votes and it's outrageous. Gantz and Peretz need to get their racists in line fast.

Why is she a racist? Still trying to push a unity government in 2020 is flat out stupid but you’re overreacting a bit

She might come around anyways who knows

She's part of Labor-Gesher-Meretz, not YB.

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The Title should be changed to, Fear, Loathing and No Government in Israel

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I'm 90% sure that Parrotguy will vote for the Joint List next election and why can't the sane Israeli left join in a Alliance. 

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Will Meretz join the Joint List like they were supposed to in 2015?

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If there is going to be another election, I’m blaming Handel/Hauser/Levy’s huge ego.

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The waste of space known as Yair Netanyahu says that Stav Shaffir should become a muslim

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Negotiations now appear to be dead and Gantz is speaking to the country in a few minutes as his mandate expires. Elections are likely in late July.

What if Coronavirus is still in effect for the election?

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Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

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Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Who in the f***ing world would think that siding with Hendal and Hauser is a good idea.