Will the GOP ever appeal to Minorities? (user search)
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  Will the GOP ever appeal to Minorities? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will the GOP ever appeal to Minorities?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
They took R Jobs!!!
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 88

Author Topic: Will the GOP ever appeal to Minorities?  (Read 28396 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« on: April 28, 2009, 12:08:09 AM »

extinct?

In other countries there can be partially integrated minorities for millennia that are still massacred in bloodbaths when times are tonight. 

I think he's saying that whites will no longer be the majority. Which might be true, but it's beginning to look more likely that it will not be true. Extrapolating to 2050 is really dumb. In any case, whites would still be the plurality unless something extremely radical happens.

Anyway, I put the likely lifespan of the Republican Party as not lasting past c. 2150. This isn't an observation on its ideology, past or future, just on probability of party collapse in a FPTP system (or even the possibility that FPTP will be abolished). Same holds for the Democrats, of course. So "ever" has a relatively limited span of time. In that sense, it's certainly possible for the Republicans to win one minority group before disappearing, although winning the minority vote overall would be much more difficult and less likely.
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2009, 04:05:39 PM »

Since Hispanics are supposed to be the Majority within the next 40 years, Republicans will, since whites will obviously be a minority.

What population projections are you looking at? The most aggressive predictions for minority population growth have non-Hispanic whites at around 48% of the population in 2050 or so, still by far the largest group (against ~25% Hispanic, 15% black and 12% Asian).
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2009, 04:12:41 PM »

Since Hispanics are supposed to be the Majority within the next 40 years, Republicans will, since whites will obviously be a minority.

What population projections are you looking at? The most aggressive predictions for minority population growth have non-Hispanic whites at around 48% of the population in 2050 or so, still by far the largest group (against ~25% Hispanic, 15% black and 12% Asian).

I think he was being technical.  Under 50% would be Plurality to majority, so whites would technically still be considered a minority even though there would be more of them than any other group.

He said Hispanics would be the majority. Read the post.
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