Senator Gillibrand

[Verily]

Rasmussen finds Kennedy in a much better position than the other pollster (don't recall who it was). She leads Peter King 51-33. No other candidates (such as Cuomo and Gillibrand) were polled.

Rasmussen poll

[Verily]

LOL. The Post is just trying to cover up their previous claim that she was the choice when it had already become obvious that she was not. (Well, not really, but I doubt she was approached as the choice before withdrawing.)

[Verily]

Thanks for giving us a house seat, Paterson.

I will point out that the district is only R+3, and that was before 2008. It saw some of the strongest swings to Obama in the state. Not that it's at all guaranteed to be held by the Democrats, of course, but be careful making such declarations. Party registration isn't everything. The special election will probably be held while Obama is still in honeymoon, etc.

[Verily]

So...what would the race for Gillibrand's House Seat look like?  It's basically Westchester County, right?

I think two GOP State Senators have announced their indication to replace her.  The former holder of the seat, a multimillionaire and former NY State GOP Chairman, may want his seat back too.

Sweeney also beat his wife. He's not getting out of the primary if he tries to run.

Anyway, the district is suburban Albany and up along the Vermont border. It voted for Obama, narrowly. As I recall, the Majority Leader in the NY State Assembly lives in the district; maybe he will run.

Timothy Gordon might run as an Independence Party candidate, too. He represents part of the district in the Assembly. (I think he won the Democratic nomination in 2006 and 2008, but he's an Independence Party member.)

[Verily]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

[Verily]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

Well, he was humiliated because they love Gillibrand.  The key fact that he can spend 5.5 million dollars of his own money means he could be a force in the primaries.  I wouldn't exactly say "no chance."

One of the state senators is more likely though

The Senate is so close to evenly divided, that the truly safe thing would be an Assemblyman. No one cares whether an Assembly seat flips.

True. But I was just looking up the Assembly districts, and most of the Assemblypeople who represent parts of the 20th don't actually live in the district (including the Majority Leader).

[Verily]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

Actually, Silver is Speaker of the NYS Assembly.  The NYS Assembly Majority leader is Ronald Canestrari, who indeed is from the Albany area.  His assembly district includes part of CD20.  I don't know whether Canestrari lives in the CD20 part of his assembly district, though.

My bad.  So noted.

Canestrari's Wikipedia page says he was the mayor of Cohoes, NY before becoming an Assemblyman.  Cohoes is in Albany County, which is not on CD 20.  So if Canestrari hasn't moved since his mayorial days, he'd be a carpetbagger.

You're right, which I noted on page 30 in my post about Assemblymembers (there's only one, a Republican, who actually lives in NY-20).

Assuming all of them still live in the areas they represented before entering the Assembly, anyway. Which is not completely certain by any means.

[Verily]

Gillibrand is the 1st NY Senator in the United States to support Gay Marriage

Here's another interesting wrinkle from Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-NY) imminent promotion to the Senate: She appears to have switched her position on gay marriage from a standard "safe" Democratic stance, to now being a full supporter.

Empire State Pride Agenda has put out a press release saying that Gillibrand has spoken to them, and they are glad to say that New York will have its first Senator who endorses full marriage equality. This is a big change for Gillibrand, who previously had a conventional Democratic position of endorsing civil unions and non-discrimination laws, but not being for gay marriage.

To be sure, Gillibrand's voting record on gay rights was not anything that could be called bad. There weren't too many votes on gay issues in the last two years, but she did vote for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, as well as the hate crimes bill.

Gillibrand's House district voted twice for George W. Bush, then narrowly flipped to Barack Obama in 2008. So one can see why Gillibrand was less than willing to support gay marriage. But if we're looking at this from the assumption of political opportunism, this in turn gives us a new realization: We are now in a world in which endorsing gay marriage can actually be a politically beneficial choice in a statewide setting.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/gillibrand-inches-leftward-now-supports-gay-marriage.php

Well, it looks like the liberal shift I talked about has already begun.  I agree with her new position on this issue and am also glad she is showing the political sense to shore up her left flank.  If McCarthy runs against her based on only one issue of middling importance -- gun control -- her challenge will surely fail.

I wonder if we'll see Kirsten dining with Al Sharpton in Harlem sometime soon.  LOL.

Speak of the devil (quoting Ben Smith): "... and Al Sharpton's office emails that she'll be appearing with him tomorrow."

[Verily]

Gillibrand on McCarthy: "I pledge to work with her on her signature bill to work on... background checks to prevent gun violence."

McCarthy is mostly just bitter she wasn't selected. Same for "anonymous congressman from the NYC area" (Jose Serrano).

[Verily]

not that we can expect a Dartmouth grad to actually care about gay marriage

Not catching the joke here... explain for a dumb foreigner plz.

Dartmouth College is well-known as by far the most conservative of the Ivy League schools and generally easily the most conservative prestigious college in the US. Except maybe Georgetown; I suppose it depends on how you define conservative (Georgetown being very Catholic in some of its institutions but far more mainstream liberal than Dartmouth).