BRTD's county map predictions

[Verily]

Very interesting. Gore carried Monmouth and there was a huge 9/11 effect there--Middletown famously had a large number of losses that day.

Monmouth is changing, though. It's become even more wealthy exurban, and the downscale areas have shrunk. Obama could still win if he massively increases his margin in Middletown and the rest of the northern coast, but, since there's no serious campaign in NJ, I doubt that happens.

Personally, I doubt Sussex ends up more Republican than Warren this year. But I suppose it could. Also, on the kind of result NJ is looking like, Union would be D>60.

[Verily]

Al would know a lot more for this:



Imagine McCain by about 7 or so. No he's not winning by double digits, yes, he's winning by less than Wyoming, no he's not close to winning every county.

Nicholas and Clay will probably fall before Harrison. Jefferson might swing hard, might hardly swing at all (it's on the edge of the DC metro area, with all that might be associated with that, you know...)

Important to mention that it's in the DC media market, which Obama is blanketing but where McCain has no ads up at all. Similarly we will see a swing to Obama in the Maryland counties covered by the DC market (but in Virginia the campaigns are far more visible as ground operations, of course). This is also happening in the Boston market (covering part of NH) and the Chicago market (covering part of IN).

[Verily]

What's with Greene county? 

2004 was a gigantic fluke.

I'm not so sure about that. This is one place that has moved away from most Democrats who aren't named Bob Casey... Rendell got only 55 percent there in 2006. Against a Negro!

"Rendell" is the key part of that sentence. Rendell's base is eastern PA; western PA is not too fond of him. (The Steelers effect was, of course, also in play.) You'll also note serious underperformance by Rendell in Westmoreland and Washington counties, and even in Allegheny County, where Rendell ran behind his statewide numbers.

[Verily]

Waller County? Really? Some of the swings in the Panhandle look weird, too, as does Terrell County. I'm also surprised you don't think Obama will break 60% in Travis County.

[Verily]

What's with Greene county? 

2004 was a gigantic fluke.

I'm not so sure about that. This is one place that has moved away from most Democrats who aren't named Bob Casey... Rendell got only 55 percent there in 2006. Against a Negro!

"Rendell" is the key part of that sentence. Rendell's base is eastern PA; western PA is not too fond of him. (The Steelers effect was, of course, also in play.) You'll also note serious underperformance by Rendell in Westmoreland and Washington counties, and even in Allegheny County, where Rendell ran behind his statewide numbers.

Rendell won Western PA counties... If there was a Steelers affect, Swann would've won those counties, because the Steelers are as close to religion as you get here.

Look at Rendell's numbers in western PA against Casey's there. Rendell did shockingly poorly for a Democrat winning 60% of the vote statewide in western PA. Do you really think Allegheny County would normally be less Democratic than the state as a whole? Compare it to Kerry's result in 2004 if you must.