LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election (user search)
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  LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election (search mode)
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Author Topic: LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election  (Read 13698 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« on: May 01, 2008, 01:06:18 AM »
Meh. We get the slightly less unpleasant choice. Although maybe Cazayoux will surprise me, I am skeptical.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2008, 08:51:11 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 08:49:55 PM
Quote from: HardRCafé on May 03, 2008, 08:48:06 PM
6,688    41.16%   "Don" Cazayoux
8,978   55.26%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

With 64 (12.5%) of 512 precincts reporting.  Not good for Cazayoux.

Watch the parish breakdown. Basically nothing from East Baton Rouge Parish, which is the bulk of the district, against a large chunk of 77%-Bush Livingston Parish.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2008, 08:53:08 PM »
Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2008, 08:55:07 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on May 03, 2008, 08:53:40 PM
Quote from: Verily on May 03, 2008, 08:53:08 PM
Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.

Although since the district as a whole was Bush by nearly 20...

True; it all depends on his margin in East Baton Rouge. Livingston is now 45 of 63 in with just 2 of 315 from East Baton Rouge.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2008, 08:56:52 PM »
For comparison, Cazayoux is at 70% in West Baton Rouge, which Bush won by 8. (16 of 21 in)
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2008, 09:01:54 PM »
Okay, Livingston is now 61 of 63 in. This should be the peak for Jenkins; the question is how Cazayoux closes.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2008, 09:04:49 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 09:03:50 PM
Jenkins is carrying East Baton Rouge Parish.

Certain areas, certainly. That's no surprise.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2008, 09:09:34 PM »
It's not suspicious, guys, it's reporting patterns in the South. Light!
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2008, 09:14:34 PM »
Cazayoux now leads in East Baton Rouge with 121 of 314 in. If current patterns hold, Cazayoux wins the seat with over 50%.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2008, 09:16:05 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 09:13:08 PM
Anyone know what Ashley Casey's support block is, other than voters who don't care about wasting their vote?  Her Politics1.com website link goes to a Green Party congressional candidate in New York State.  If Cazayoux gains some ground but the final result is within 3.8% either way, her vote could be greater than the margin of victory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5oeE8zzdD0

(No matter what her political views are, I suspect her supporters are Republicans who hate Jenkins but can't stand voting for Democrats.)
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2008, 09:20:30 PM »
Poor (read: black) areas always report late in the South.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2008, 09:23:02 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2008, 09:24:46 PM by Verily »
Outside of East Baton Rouge everything is in save one precinct in Livingston.

Anyone know anything about the part of Pointe Coupee in this district? The parish as a whole was marginal in 2004, but this part was intensely for Cazayoux.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2008, 10:20:33 PM »
The above are the full results.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2008, 10:26:15 PM »

Apparently not. Louisiana has begun to abolish them.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2008, 07:48:21 PM »
I think that would be some ridiculous number, like 50. Not going to happen.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2008, 08:39:23 PM »
Quote from: CollectiveInterest on May 04, 2008, 07:55:25 PM
What's going to keep the GOP from getting shellacked in November? Money? GOTV? Improved conditions in Iraq? The economy getting better?

Dems realize they have the momentum after winning in IL-14 and LA-06. The money will be there for Dem candidates. The volunteers will be there. Dems will twist the arms of family members to vote Dem.

60% of open seats less Republican than this one, okay. (I think 60% would be about 10 seats.) But 60% of all seats less Republican is absurd.
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