NJ Democratic Senate Primary - General Discussion

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I notice Menendez doesn't even get a mention as a Senator

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I fully support the real Democrat in this race, Lautenberg.

Just a point of reference here, I'm curious to know BRTD why you like Nutter, Menendez, and Feinstein are fake Democrats.

He thinks so because they endorsed Clinton.

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Finally got an Andrews mailer today. There's been no signs of life in the campaign here at all. Not that surprising; Bergen County will be solidly for Lautenberg. But it might bode ill for Lautenberg if parts of Central and South Jersey get better turnout. There's been much more activity in the local City Council primary (which I've been leafletting for, as the county Democratic Party is yet again trying, and hopefully failing, to upend the rebel Democrats' control of Englewood).

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I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

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I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

Did it come today? I hadn't seen them yet.

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

Did it come today? I hadn't seen them yet.

Mine (or my specifically my parents) came in the mail yesterday

...And the mail just came with mine today.

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

One of the problems for Lautenberg in Bergen is that, while he may be heavily behind the Ferriero slate, Ferriero is lukewarm about Lautenberg himself, only backing him out of fear of Rothman.

Will Ferriero really want to put the machine to work for Lautenberg?

Apparently he is: I got home tonight to six robocall messages. One from the anti-Ferriero Democrats about the City Council election, one from the pro-Ferriero Democrats about the City Council election and four from the Ferriero Democrats, Rothman and Lautenberg himself about Lautenberg. Nothing about Andrews. (And even the anti-Ferriero Democrats reminded me to vote for Lautenberg in their call.)

Ferriero really just doesn't like Lautenberg because, had Lautenberg resigned, it would gotten him clean of Rothman (who would have run for Senate) and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

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and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

I've never heard of this guy, who is he?

My mayor, and Ferriero's bosom buddy. He's had a congressional campaign fund open since 2006.

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So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

I'd say around twenty points, something like 55-35-10 (10 going to Cresitello). With obvious intense regional polarization. Andrews should win every county from Burlington south, while Lautenberg will win every county from Middlesex north (with the possible exception of Morris, where Cresitello might make the results strange or even win). I don't know much about the likely patterns of Sussex and Warren Counties, but they're basically irrelevant in a Democratic primary anyway.

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Sabrin was the only who could string together a coherent sentence. 

I guess that's one redeeming quality of Sabrin. Then again, concerning his speaking, he loves using those terrible phrases like "liberal loser lobbyist" over and over again.

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

I'd say around twenty points, something like 55-35-10 (10 going to Cresitello).

Are you serious? It won't be that bad for Andrews. And is Cresitello really expected to hit double digits after such minor exposure?

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

Also, dwtl may onto something here.  It is only when the GOP nominates a completely incompetent candidate that it will actually win a Senate seat in NJ.  Fits with the state entirely.

Haha, how true. It's also funny that it seems like they're going to nominate someone like Pennacchio - the most conservative nominee for statewide office in decades - when this race had the potential for being the best showing for the GOP in quite some time.

I'm perfectly serious. Andrews has no appeal at all to North Jersey, and Lautenberg has no appeal at all to South Jersey. So people will just vote along regional lines, and those numbers are pretty much the North Jersey-South Jersey Democratic breakdown. Cresitello will get a substantial protest vote from people who hate both candidates and also from his home area in Morris County. He did poll at 9% (IIRC) in the one poll of the race.

I don't even know who I'm voting for yet, so you can't accuse me of bias

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I'm perfectly serious. Andrews has no appeal at all to North Jersey

Doesn't he have some serious machine support up there?

Parts of the Union County machine endorsed him, but there was resistance even then. He won't get slaughtered there, at least, not the way he'll get slaughtered in Bergen, Passaic and Hudson, anyway. Still, he didn't really have a chance after he failed to win over more than a handful of machine supporters in the north.

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An important sign of this are the columns. Andrews is all on his lonesome in Column 1 on most of the North Jersey ballots (often with dueling Democratic tickets for lower positions in Columns 3 and 4; Cresitello is in Column 2). Locally, we have the oddity of Lautenberg being in Column 4 with Column 3 empty for the Senate primary (although I'll be voting straight-ticket Column 3 for the rest of the primaries).

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An important sign of this are the columns. Andrews is all on his lonesome in Column 1 on most of the North Jersey ballots (often with dueling Democratic tickets for lower positions in Columns 3 and 4; Cresitello is in Column 2). Locally, we have the oddity of Lautenberg being in Column 4 with Column 3 empty for the Senate primary (although I'll be voting straight-ticket Column 3 for the rest of the primaries).

For us non-New Jerseyites, could you explain this column thing?

I'll see if I can scrounge up an old sample ballot from Google. A picture is worth a thousand words.

[Verily]

In the meantime, here's the only poll of the race, from mid-May:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_democratic_senate_primary

Lautenberg: 49
Andrews: 19
Cresitello: 7

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Here's a sample ballot from Hunterdon County. There, they apparently use rows, but the effect is the same:

www.readingtontwp.org/sample_ballot_june_3.pdf

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Here's a sample ballot from Hunterdon County. There, they apparently use rows, but the effect is the same:

www.readingtontwp.org/sample_ballot_june_3.pdf

I was under the impression that most counties in New Jersey used rows rather than columns.

Then again, I was a Hunterdon County voter, so I may be biased.  Interesting that Whitman fielded a Freeholder candidate for her slate.

I'm only familiar with Bergen County, so I just assumed it was mostly columns. Either way. Maybe it depends on what type of voting machines are in use.

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Rush Holt won Jeopardy? Interesting but not surprising. Is there anything that man hasn't done that's intellectually stimulating?

Serve as a U.S. Senator.

Full disclosure: I made up my mind driving to the polling station to vote for Lautenberg because, while I like Andrews slightly more (or, rather, dislike him slightly less), he would be in office for decades while Lautenberg definitely won't make it past 2014. Hopefully Holt will run in 2014 (or in 2012 against Menendez in the primary).

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So I slightly underestimated Lautenberg and slightly overestimated Cresitello but was basically correct. Wrong on the GOP primary, but turnout was so low that basically anything could have happened. Also, Sabrin took second in two counties (Ocean and Gloucester). LOL