NJ Democratic Senate Primary - General Discussion

[DownWithTheLeft]

My final prediction going into the primary:

Republicans
State Sen. Joe Pennachio 46%
Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer 43%
Dr. Murray Sabrin 11%

Democrats
Rep. Bob Andrews 48%
Sen. Frank Lautenberg 47%
Mayor Donald Cresitello 5%

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

[Conan]

Did anyone see the debate last night? It was quite good. Lautenberg spoke well for the most part until near the end when he started this Ted Kennedy-esque boston "uh's"

He also tried to have Andrews acknowledge he wouldn't run for his house seat "after he loses the senate race." That was pretty funny.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

[DownWithTheLeft]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

Did it come today? I hadn't seen them yet.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

Did it come today? I hadn't seen them yet.

Mine (or my specifically my parents) came in the mail yesterday

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

I received the sample ballot, he's listed by his lonesome in Column 1

Did it come today? I hadn't seen them yet.

Mine (or my specifically my parents) came in the mail yesterday

...And the mail just came with mine today.

[Conan]

Andrews is in the number one spot where I live.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Andrews is in the number one spot where I live.

County lines, your in Sussex right?

[Keystone Phil]

Did anyone see the debate last night? It was quite good. Lautenberg spoke well for the most part until near the end when he started this Ted Kennedy-esque boston "uh's"

I saw a bit of it but I was kind of out of it (after surgery). Lautenberg is an absolutely horrific speaker. The "uh's" didn't come towards the end either. They were present throughout. I'm about to watch the GOP debate and then the Andrews vs. "the other guy" debate on ABC. I have a feeling the GOP debate will be amusing.

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That's one of my problems with Andrews. His wife was on one of the local news broadcasts last night, saying she would not step aside for him. Sure.

[Conan]

Did anyone see the debate last night? It was quite good. Lautenberg spoke well for the most part until near the end when he started this Ted Kennedy-esque boston "uh's"

I saw a bit of it but I was kind of out of it (after surgery). Lautenberg is an absolutely horrific speaker. The "uh's" didn't come towards the end either. They were present throughout. I'm about to watch the GOP debate and then the Andrews vs. "the other guy" debate on ABC. I have a feeling the GOP debate will be amusing.

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That's one of my problems with Andrews. His wife was on one of the local news broadcasts last night, saying she would not step aside for him. Sure.

I only caught the second half of the debate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

One of the problems for Lautenberg in Bergen is that, while he may be heavily behind the Ferriero slate, Ferriero is lukewarm about Lautenberg himself, only backing him out of fear of Rothman.

Will Ferriero really want to put the machine to work for Lautenberg?

[Keystone Phil]

That Republican debate was just awful. I think it was the worst debate I've ever watched. The candidates are some of the worst I've ever seen as well.

[DownWithTheLeft]

That Republican debate was just awful. I think it was the worst debate I've ever watched. The candidates are some of the worst I've ever seen as well.

Sabrin was the only who could string together a coherent sentence.  Pennachio talks like Elmer Fudd and can't decide whether to leave his glasses on or off, and Zimmer blinks more than John Edwards.  I'm thinking this might be the year the GOP has a shot in NJ

[Verily]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

One of the problems for Lautenberg in Bergen is that, while he may be heavily behind the Ferriero slate, Ferriero is lukewarm about Lautenberg himself, only backing him out of fear of Rothman.

Will Ferriero really want to put the machine to work for Lautenberg?

Apparently he is: I got home tonight to six robocall messages. One from the anti-Ferriero Democrats about the City Council election, one from the pro-Ferriero Democrats about the City Council election and four from the Ferriero Democrats, Rothman and Lautenberg himself about Lautenberg. Nothing about Andrews. (And even the anti-Ferriero Democrats reminded me to vote for Lautenberg in their call.)

Ferriero really just doesn't like Lautenberg because, had Lautenberg resigned, it would gotten him clean of Rothman (who would have run for Senate) and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

[DownWithTheLeft]

and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

I've never heard of this guy, who is he?

[Verily]

and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

I've never heard of this guy, who is he?

My mayor, and Ferriero's bosom buddy. He's had a congressional campaign fund open since 2006.

[DownWithTheLeft]

and probably allowed Michael Wildes to waltz into Rothman's seat (ugh).

I've never heard of this guy, who is he?

My mayor, and Ferriero's bosom buddy. He's had a congressional campaign fund open since 2006.

Yikes, maybe I should feel grateful to have Rothman

[Sam Spade]

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

Also, dwtl may onto something here.  It is only when the GOP nominates a completely incompetent candidate that it will actually win a Senate seat in NJ.  Fits with the state entirely.

[Verily]

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

I'd say around twenty points, something like 55-35-10 (10 going to Cresitello). With obvious intense regional polarization. Andrews should win every county from Burlington south, while Lautenberg will win every county from Middlesex north (with the possible exception of Morris, where Cresitello might make the results strange or even win). I don't know much about the likely patterns of Sussex and Warren Counties, but they're basically irrelevant in a Democratic primary anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Sabrin was the only who could string together a coherent sentence. 

I guess that's one redeeming quality of Sabrin. Then again, concerning his speaking, he loves using those terrible phrases like "liberal loser lobbyist" over and over again.

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

I'd say around twenty points, something like 55-35-10 (10 going to Cresitello).

Are you serious? It won't be that bad for Andrews. And is Cresitello really expected to hit double digits after such minor exposure?

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

Also, dwtl may onto something here.  It is only when the GOP nominates a completely incompetent candidate that it will actually win a Senate seat in NJ.  Fits with the state entirely.

Haha, how true. It's also funny that it seems like they're going to nominate someone like Pennacchio - the most conservative nominee for statewide office in decades - when this race had the potential for being the best showing for the GOP in quite some time.

[Verily]

Sabrin was the only who could string together a coherent sentence. 

I guess that's one redeeming quality of Sabrin. Then again, concerning his speaking, he loves using those terrible phrases like "liberal loser lobbyist" over and over again.

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

I'd say around twenty points, something like 55-35-10 (10 going to Cresitello).

Are you serious? It won't be that bad for Andrews. And is Cresitello really expected to hit double digits after such minor exposure?

So how much is Lautenberg going to win by tomorrow?

Also, dwtl may onto something here.  It is only when the GOP nominates a completely incompetent candidate that it will actually win a Senate seat in NJ.  Fits with the state entirely.

Haha, how true. It's also funny that it seems like they're going to nominate someone like Pennacchio - the most conservative nominee for statewide office in decades - when this race had the potential for being the best showing for the GOP in quite some time.

I'm perfectly serious. Andrews has no appeal at all to North Jersey, and Lautenberg has no appeal at all to South Jersey. So people will just vote along regional lines, and those numbers are pretty much the North Jersey-South Jersey Democratic breakdown. Cresitello will get a substantial protest vote from people who hate both candidates and also from his home area in Morris County. He did poll at 9% (IIRC) in the one poll of the race.

I don't even know who I'm voting for yet, so you can't accuse me of bias

[Keystone Phil]

I'm perfectly serious. Andrews has no appeal at all to North Jersey

Doesn't he have some serious machine support up there?