Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

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Back down to 54-46 with 60% in. Not sure what came in, though.

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Centre is now in the Obama column, 38% in.

By 4%. The youth vote in Pennsylvania is not apparently very "hip."  That is part of the story here I think.

Nah, Centre County (and Union County) is like Athens County, Ohio. Big college town surrounded by uber-Clintonland, overall will be a very close result.

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Centre is now in the Obama column, 38% in.

By 4%. The youth vote in Pennsylvania is not apparently very "hip."  That is part of the story here I think.

Nah, Centre County (and Union County) is like Athens County, Ohio. Big college town surrounded by uber-Clintonland, overall will be a very close result.

Ya, but how important are they demographically?

Given the sheer geographic size of Centre County and the fact that it voted for Bush in 2004, I'm assuming the strongly Clinton areas and the college will have close to the same number of votes.

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Incidentally, Clinton, women aged 20 have never seen a woman President, either, but they're not voting for you.

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"We were outspent, we were outspent, we were outspent..."

"Because nobody wants to give us money, nobody wants to give us money, nobody wants to give us money..."

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For those who want to hear about something other than Pennsylvania, the MS-01 special election result is tight. 48-48 with the Democrat in the lead by just over 300 votes with 94% reporting. If no one gets over 50%, it goes to a special election in May. (This may seem likely, but the results have seen wild swings in both directions on very small % reporting as MS is starkly divided.)

http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp

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Obama slips into the lead in Delaware County (75% in).

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It's going to be 54-46, but narrowly, something like 54.3-45.7. Montgomery will move into the Obama column, and Bucks will (probably) end up below Clinton's statewide margin. Chester, no results yet, but my guess is close to even. Those are the only populous areas with much left out, so the fact that Clinton is just over a 9-point lead right now means she'll be below that at the end.

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Nice numbers from Chester. I expect similar from outer Montgomery and Bucks, which will narrow Bucks and bring Montgomery to Obama.

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All of the Pittsburgh area is in now except for maybe another 5000 votes from Westmoreland and no more than 200 in Allegheny. There are maybe 5000 votes total outstanding in the rural counties, maybe 10000 in Lackawanna and around 50000 in various Obama-favorable areas (Dauphin, the Philly suburbs).

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The new delegate count:

PA Pledged:  HRC 40, BHO 37
PA Supers:    HRC 55, BHO 42
National:       BHO 1685, HRC 1544

She has to have more district pledged delegates.  She's basically carrying all districts except PA-1 and PA-2, with three still out.

Obama carried PA-14, last I checked.

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PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

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In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 25 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 15 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

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In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

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In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

158 pledged and 29 supers

No, I mean statewide. Not including districts.

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In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

35 at large, 20 PLEOs.

Okay, so I overestimated. For some reason I thought there were 56 at-large delegates.

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PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

We know the final numbers from DelCo, 55-45, even though CNN hasn't updated yet. Sounds like Obama almost definitely won PA-7 given that he so far is also winning lily-white Chester. But it may be close. Numerically, PA-4 and PA-18 can be switched.

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PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

We know the final numbers from DelCo, 55-45, even though CNN hasn't updated yet. Sounds like Obama almost definitely won PA-7 given that he so far is also winning lily-white Chester. But it may be close. Numerically, PA-4 and PA-18 can be switched.

So, how many state-wide does she have?

+15, I think.

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Hillary has 19 at large and 11 PLEOs. Things are going to have to change DRASTICALLY for that to change. So that's a total of 30 to Obama's 25.

Exactly. +10 on districts, +5 on at-large. No gap-closing going on tonight. But J. J.'s ever-falling bar might be set at a net gain of ten delegates now.

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So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

Possibly. It's right on the 9% line. Depends really on what the remaining suburban areas look like.

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I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

That last part to come in (the recent 22% that bumped it up to 55% Obama) was the city of Chester. Obama led 51-49 before that, in an area that's about as black as CD-7 overall (like BRTD said, about 7-8%). And that's ignoring the Chester County parts of CD-7, where Obama was probably stronger.

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I'm almost certain PA-4 will be just +1 for Hillary. She got "only" 60% in the Allegheny part of the district, and the rest of the district is just barely above or around 70% for her.

All right, I believed Sam when he corrected me

PA-18 is probably C+3, not C+1. PA-4, you're right, is definitely C+1. Makes no difference, still C+15 overall.

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Obama apparently won (just) over 60% in Centre County. Not what I expected; I thought it'd be like Athens County, Ohio (much less Clinton than surrounding, but still Clinton).

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PA-18 should be just +1 for Hillary too, a similar scenario to PA-4 (though she does have 63% as opposed to 60% as said above.) The only way Hillary breaks 70% is if the parts of Westmoreland and Washington in it are way more favorable to her than the counties at large.

So with both PA-4 and PA-18 +1, would that put her statewide numbers at +13?

Yes.

Chester's finally coming in more. Slightly stronger for Obama, now 55-45 Obama with 56% reporting. Still the least-reporting county in the state. Montgomery has 37% out, Lancaster is missing 16%, Westmoreland is short 9%, Bucks is short 8%. Some random small counties are missing some, too, but those definitely won't affect the result. Philadelphia is short 3%, and Allegheny is short 1%.

Check that, Pike County is the least reporting, with 62% left to come. But it's bitsy. Might be interesting to see if it swings towards Obama with the remaining results, though; most of the residents are (very long-distance) NYC commuters.

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Westmoreland is now all in.