Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Verily]

I'm not a big television watcher but I listen to radio.......I've heard Obama ads frequently in Pittsburgh on the radio but no Hillary ones so far.

The gist of the ads is - Obama doesn't take PAC money or cater to special interests/lobbyists etc......no policy type ads

Not surprising; he wins over Republicans mostly on clean government, not on other policy.

[Verily]

I doubt there will be a swing against Obama of more than 2-3 points from the final polls; Pennsylvania is like Ohio, not Massachusetts, and the final polls were pretty good in Ohio, save Zogby.

[Verily]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

Not really. The final polls in Ohio (ignoring Zogby and ARG, although ARG would corroborate this) were on both sides of Clinton's margin.

SUSA: C+10
PPP: C+9
Suffolk: C+12
Rasmussen: C+6
Actual: C+10

[Verily]

What's the weather forecast?

72 F and partly cloudy in Philadelphia, 71 F and mostly sunny in Pittsburgh, 69 F and partly cloudy in Harrisburg, 70 F and partly cloudy in Scranton, 68 F and sunny in Erie. Generally looks like a gorgeous day.

[Verily]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

Except for FOX, no one has called any race at close unless the exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread. Even FOX has waited for a while to call ten-point spreads.

[Verily]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

Except for FOX, no one has called any race at close unless the exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread. Even FOX has waited for a while to call ten-point spreads.

I though MSNBC called NY for Hillary within 30 seconds?  No?

The exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread, too (around twenty points), and the result was a seventeen-point split.

[Verily]

What sort of Democrats (or Republicans, actually, that sounds like oddly high turnout) would be voting in your ward?

[Verily]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Well, I tried to tell you folks. This is gonna be a landslide.

Close, but not quite a perfect quotation.

[Verily]

I did, too, but I'm also overly critical. So it works both ways

[Verily]

Those were all over the place on national news on Super Tuesday, although the woman they had on CNN's footage was from Wisconsin (which at least had yet to vote).

The confusion is perhaps more understandable in Florida, where voter information for the faux-primary was unsurprisingly low due to the lack of any campaign, and of course because Floridians can't be relied upon to do anything right related to elections.

[Verily]

5 PM is usually when the first fake exit polls funnel through the internet. And CNN or FOX might start talking about the useless demographics, as Alcon said. ("The beer-drinkers appear to have turned out in higher numbers than in 2004. Who does this benefit? We'll tell you, after the break.")

[Verily]

The confusion is perhaps more understandable in Florida, where voter information for the faux-primary was unsurprisingly low due to the lack of any campaign, and of course because Floridians can't be relied upon to do anything right related to elections.

See, I actually think it's more understandable that voters in a state like WI would have been confused.  Precisely *because* the campaign hadn't really started there yet, people would know less about it.  Whereas in Florida, it would have been just a week ago that there was this heavily covered GOP primary, and presumably lots of local stories about the Democratic "primary" fiasco.

I was kidding a bit.

[Verily]

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BEER DRINKERS? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Verily]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

That is kind of interesting. If "new voter" means punk voter, Obama isn't rocking the vote.

I can't imagine 1 of 7 is true (or at least honest). That would mean turnout is barely up at all from the 2004 primary.

[Verily]

First (well almost....a minute behind Drudge) reputed leak of overall numbers....WTF?

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=

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Uh, then who isn't voting for Obama?

NOBODY! Obama wins 90% of the vote in PA! Write-ins for Gravel come in second! 

[Verily]

Well, if the Ohio exit polls paradigm holds, Clinton wins by seven points, which was my prediction.

I will now accept my accolades. Or is that not subtle enough?

[Verily]

Ohio: (C | O)

College: 49 | 49
Attacked Unfairly: 54 | 37 (Ouch, this one went way up for both in PA.)

Doesn't appear to have been anything on guns in Ohio.

[Verily]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

As I just posted, they tied among college-educated in Ohio. It's the post-graduates where Obama pulls away when Clinton leads by 10%.

[Verily]

At what time will the results start to come in?

Polls close at 8 EDT, so maybe 8:20.

[Verily]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

Eh, that's about par.

College voters don't vote remarkably differently, for the most part.  Postgrads do.

Obama is on TV and he looks sad and just mentioned a ten-point loss.  Downplaying expectations?

Edit: Damn Verily

Victory is mine.

But I'm still waiting on the beer drinkers.

[Verily]

Right now it's 6 PM EDT, right?

Yes.

[Verily]

CNN has their numbers up, same as the leaked exit poll (53-47 Obama among men, 55-44 Clinton among women).

[Verily]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

[Verily]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

I suppose it's the fact that it's strong for Obama that gets me. Elsewhere, Obama runs strongly among Protestants largely because most blacks identify as Protestants. But I can only explain those numbers by saying that, in PA but not elsewhere, blacks identify as "generic Christians".

[Verily]

Any real results or is it stupid "OH ITS TOO CLOSE TO CALL HAHA!!! STAY WITH US AFTER THIS BREAK"

Actual results will take maybe another fifteen minutes to start coming in at least.