Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[Verily]

Romney - 44%
Tancredo - 18%
T. Thompson - 12%
Mike Huckabee - 9%
John Cox - 6%
Sam Brownback - 5%
Ron Paul - 3%
Duncan Hunter - 3%

Tancredo and Romney both declare victory. Tommy Thompson says that he will stay in the race at first, but drops out after the next few Iowa polls fail to show any improvement. John Cox is invited to the next Republican debate but makes no impact.

[Verily]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

[Verily]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

Just curious... what information?

More knowledge of Huckabee's levels of organization at the Fair, for example.

[Verily]

I wonder if this really means anything for Huckabee though. If he stays in all the way, he'll still probably only manage a fourth place in the caucus.

Possibly not; if Romney continues to run away with the lead in Iowa, Giuliani and McCain (and Thompson) may decide to ignore it entirely. McCain almost got away with this is 2000, and would have if not for dirty tactics by the Bush campaign in South Carolina, so it's not entirely out of the question.