Canadian by-elections

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It looks like the Conservatives have won Roberval. Their lead is enormous with about half reporting. I suppose it could be mostly Conservative-leaning polls (which would explain the abnormally low NDP and Green votes), but still...

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You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late...

Isn't that kind of "William Gladstone and Ireland" to play that card.

The Conservatives may very well be shooting themselves in the foot long-term.

Personally, I'd rather see an indignant but mostly harmless Bloc MP than a Conservative MP, but apparently the other non-Conservative-supporters don't see it that way.

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The NDP has hit 50% in Outremont, but it's still early. Damn slow counters.

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CTV declared Roberval for Con - w/ 130/194 reporting they have 58.4% to 28.6% for Bloc.

Not surprising after what we've seen tonight. Unfortunate, IMO.

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The NDP is still going up. 50.7%. This might end up looking like Hamilton East.

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As we speak, the Liberals make some gains. I don't think it will be enough, though. The NDP has this one.

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3 people voted for John Turmel. LOL

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Liberals are rallying. Perhaps we spoke too soon. Interesting battle for third in Saint-Hyacinthe, too.

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I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives beating the Bloc in Outremont, so we may be looking at heavily Liberal/federalist polls coming in now. The NDP/Bloc/soft nationalist polls might be later.

NDP rebounds somewhat.

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I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives beating the Bloc in Outremont, so we may be looking at heavily Liberal/federalist polls coming in now. The NDP/Bloc/soft nationalist polls might be later.

NDP rebounds somewhat.

Hey, this is Outremont. They don't even know enough French to report on time.  Con can beat BQ, why not?

There are quite a few francophones in Outremont, more than half I think. The problem for the Bloc is that (under normal circumstances) only about 2/3 of francophones vote for them while essentially no anglophones do.

[Verily]

Outremont count has caught up to Saint-Hyacinthe (which is actually behind because they have more polls).

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Ick. The Conservatives are catching up in Saint-Hyacinthe.

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NDP just shy of 50% again, this time with over 1/3 reporting. This is over. Big NDP victory, and a good night for the Conservatives, too.

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No idea. I've just been getting info directly from Elections Canada (http://enr.elections.ca/enr_v2/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx).

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Bloc will hold Saint-Hyacinthe, albeit narrowly. Only 22 polls left and a 5% lead; that should be enough.

The NDP victory in Outremont is much bigger than I expected, over 20 points currently, and will probably have major ramifications in the landscape of Quebec politics (not to mention internal Liberal Party problems).

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Outremont
166/168 reporting

Thomas Mulcair (NDP): 11,156 (48.4%)
Jocelyn Coulon (LIB): 6,554 (28.4%)
Jean-Paul Gilson (BQ): 2,490 (10.8%)
Gilles Duguay (CON): 1,907 (8.3%)
Francois Pilon (GRN): 504 (2.2%)
Others below 1%

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Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.

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Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.

Considering the Conservatives are operating as a minority government, why would the Liberals and the Bloc vote for the government to end if they're suffering? Harper would still need a majority of votes to support dissolution, right?

Ah, I was thinking under old terms. It used to be that the PM could dissolve Parliament whenever he wanted, but the Harper government passed a law last year fixing election dates, which I think prevents the PM from arbitrarily dissolving Parliament (though theoretically the Conservatives and NDP could vote no confidence and get it over with).

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The NDP might not mind an election if we get a bump in the polls from this by-election, but that might go down if we force an election.

The NDP would have great spin, though... "The Liberals voted to prop up the Harper government. Only the NDP was willing to work to tear down conservativism in this country!"

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And, in the post-by-election rundown, Decima says... Quebec goes crazy!

http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070919BE.pdf

Con: 32 (+1)
Lib: 29 (-2)
NDP: 17 (+2)
Green: 14 (!!!) (+2)
BQ: 5 (!!!!!) (-3)

Quebec
Con: 26
BQ: 22 (!!!!!)
Lib: 16
NDP: 16 (!!!!!)
Green: 15 (!!!!!)

The other interesting (but not all that surprising, given the situations in NL and NS) part:

Atlantic Canada
Lib: 50
Con: 18
NDP: 17
Green: 12

Of course, the margin of error is large.

For completeness:

Ontario
Lib: 36
Con: 34
NDP: 16
Green: 12

BC
Lib: 30
Con: 29
NDP: 21
Green: 19

No breakdown for the Prairies, but presumably the Conservatives are somewhere between 60 and 70% in Alberta and around 40% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with the NDP and Liberals about tied and the Greens more or less on their national average.

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No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.

The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)

Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?

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No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.

The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)

Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?

No, but it might be good evidence of the tactical voting that would be the additional kick to the Conservative Crotch in 1997

Which is sort of the point, although, unlike Labour tactical voters in Britain in 1993, Green tactical voters in Canada would probably split more or less evenly between the NDP and Liberals (though Mulcair's green credentials and green campaign probably won him most of the Green votes in this case).

[Verily]

Ok, if you think the Greens are going to get 15% or hell even half of that in Quebec in the next election, so be it. I am willing to put $100 down that says they won't.

It's a widely known fact the Greens always do better in polls than they will in an election. You will see this on October 10th as well.

This wasn't the case in 2004 or 2006 when it came down to polls shortly before election day, and even polls long before the election only averaged their score to about 1% above the result, which ould be accounted for simply by Greens voting tactically in close seats.

I don't think the Greens will get 15% in Quebec, but your logic is shaky and colored by partisanship.

[Verily]

No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.

The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)

Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?

No, but it might be good evidence of the tactical voting that would be the additional kick to the Conservative Crotch in 1997

Which is sort of the point, although, unlike Labour tactical voters in Britain in 1993, Green tactical voters in Canada would probably split more or less evenly between the NDP and Liberals (though Mulcair's green credentials and green campaign probably won him most of the Green votes in this case).

Ah, but on these figures tactically refraining from voting green makes sense virtually everywhere except in rural Alberta.

Only if your seat was reasonably close last time. Think about, say, Vancouver Centre. Tactical vote? I think not.

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No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.

The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)

Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?

No, but it might be good evidence of the tactical voting that would be the additional kick to the Conservative Crotch in 1997

Which is sort of the point, although, unlike Labour tactical voters in Britain in 1993, Green tactical voters in Canada would probably split more or less evenly between the NDP and Liberals (though Mulcair's green credentials and green campaign probably won him most of the Green votes in this case).

Ah, but on these figures tactically refraining from voting green makes sense virtually everywhere except in rural Alberta.

Only if your seat was reasonably close last time. Think about, say, Vancouver Centre. Tactical vote? I think not.

I dont know, Vancouver Centre could have gone NDP had they nominated someone who didn't admit to stealing a ring for is gay lover

Svend Robinson didn't exactly help the NDP, but Vancouver Centre is certainly not voting NDP any time soon. (I also mention Vancouver Centre because Adrianne Carr is running there for the Greens, though I think she probably would have been better off running in her home Sunshine Coast district, which ironically is a swing district.)