House districts with illegal racial gerrymanders

[voice_of_resistance]

Here is my take on a fair LA map.

LA-01: This no longer crosses Lake Ponchartrain and that way the Baton Rouge gerrymander can be undone. This seat takes in a tiny bit of Jefferson Parish but is now primarily southeastern Louisiana, reaching into the easternmost bits of Acadiana. It's bluer than old LA-01 but it's still Trump 64-33. Scalise would be fine here. Safe R

LA-02: The converse of LA-01 no longer crossing the lake is that LA-02 now takes in most of Jefferson. Given its recent leftward trends in statewide races as well as the fact that most of the Dems in this district live in Orleans, Richmond should likely easily survive a primary here. It's plurality white, but 41% BVAP. Clinton 62-34, Safe D.

LA-03: This seat stays mostly the same as Southwest Louisiana is a giant Republican vote sink. Clay Higgins gets to descend into the belly of the beast as long as he wants in this Trump 67-29 district, since Port Barre is in the 3rd and only the southeast portions of St. Landry Parish are moved into LA-01. Safe R.

LA-04: This seat now becomes rural northern LA, as Shreveport is excised. It takes in infamous LaSalle Parish, as well as Bossier and Ouachita Parishes (Monroe). Mike Johnson lives in Bossier, so he could run here and given that it is Trump 67-31, he would be fine. Safe R

LA-05: This seat is a cleaner version of the 1990s LA-04. It has Shreveport, some of the Florida Parishes, along with the Mississippi Parishes, and the black portions of Baton Rouge. It is 51% black, but plurality white VAP (48%-47%). It takes in the northern reaches of Tangipahoa including Amite, so JBE could run here if he wanted to, esp. given that it is plurality white. Abraham's successor is likely screwed here, as the old LA-05 had a sizeable black population but racial polarization kept it in check. Now the AA population is raised dramatically, and makes LA-05 Clinton 53-44, so it would likely elect a Democrat of AA choice, but could flip with a red wave/lethargic rural AA turnout. Likely D

LA-06: This seat is the successor to the old LA-01 and LA-06. It is essentially the band of ruby-red suburbs and exurbs of NOLA and Baton Rouge on the north side of Lake Ponchartrain and the Mississippi. Trump 71-24, so Garret Graves is safe here. Safe R

[voice_of_resistance]

well a NOLA to BR connecting district is obviously packing in Dems, and depriving AAs of their political power elsewhere in the state.

[voice_of_resistance]

how would you draw a second AA seat then?

[voice_of_resistance]

IMO the way to draw a 2nd black district would be to have it as a swing district instead of a safe D district. Pretty sure the VRA doesn't allow that, but here is my take on a fair map for the 2020s:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4b013fc-3fbf-4c0d-a3bd-093466993813



LA-01: Trump+48; R+27; (75% white, 16% black)
LA-02: Clinton+32; D+14 (47% black, 39% white)
LA-03: Trump+41; R+21 (68% white, 24% black)
LA-04: Trump+41; R+21 (67% white, 27% black)
LA-05: Trump+19; R+10 (55% white, 40% black)
LA-06: Clinton+3; EVEN (48% white, 46% black)

Basically you get a safe D district that elects a black representative and what's essencially a tossup district that, if it elects a democrat, it almost certainly elects a black democrat.

Worth noting that neither of my maps have the black districts as majority black VAP (they are 43 and 42% black respectively), though they should still elect black representatives regardless because of how voting is polarized. Plus that data is from 2010 anyways and things have changed?

In any case this LA-06 is most certainly compact and respecting communities of interest for the most part. It's problem is partisanship and demographics I suppose.

Also funny how LA-05 in this map is only 6% less black, yet it is Trump+19 compared to Clinton+3 for LA-06 lol

yeah because northern LA whites are much more racially polarized than southern LA whites. they're both R, but compare Catahoula/LaSalle Parishes to Acadiana and you'll see the difference.