North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[voice_of_resistance]

I'll give a brief summary of the statehouse map.
NC-01: D+17 to D+4. This makes sense, as it is uncracking the Wake gerrymander and making it a primarily rural minority-heavy district. It's 42% black, which should be enough to keep Butterfield happy.
NC-02: R+7 to D+9. Holding is most likely toast here, as the 2nd becomes a district with most of Wake County in it, rather than a suburban gerrymander.
NC-03: R+12 to R+12. This district is always a tough one to draw because the population centers are split up (Greenville, Jacksonville), and it is squeezed between Wilmington in 7, the AA seat in 1, and the coast. Still, safe R for Murphy, and the partisan lean doesn't change much here. Communities of interest basically is just ENC not included in NC-01, and the Outer Banks.
NC-04: D+17 to D+10. The successor to the Durham seat, this one gets a little less Democratic, but Clinton still won over 60 percent of the vote here.
NC-05: R+10 to R+18. This one makes sense, as the old 5th had Winston Salem in it drowned out by really red rural NW NC, but now that the Winston-Salem/Greensboro gerrymanders are being unwound, the 5th becomes a predominantly rural district, stretching all the way from the Northwest to the western Charlotte suburbs. This is clearly a gerrymander as the shape of the 5th and the 10th (which I shall talk about later) have no precedent in any of the previous shapes of the districts.
NC-06: R+9 to D+8. Walker is likely toast here just as with Holding because his old district had Asheboro/Randolph County (voted Trump 76-20) keeping it solidly red, as well as some of the Piedmont to the north of Greensboro. The new district becomes a Greensboro/Winston-Salem seat as it should be, and is a likely pickup for Democrats.
NC-07: R+9 to R+11. Not significantly redder than it originally is, this district contains Wilmington as well as heavily red Brunswick County, except now it stretches further north all the way to Johnston County (Wake suburbs formerly in NC-02). I don't necessarily think this was the best idea, given that NC-07 has always been a Sandhills/Southern North Carolina district. That being said, if the district had to expand (as rural NC is losing population to urban very quickly), north is probably the way to go, because east is the 3rd which is already boxed in and west is the 8th/9th which both represent rural swaths of the Sandhills region, and have enough population to sustain a district for a Community of Interest. Rouzer is likely safe here, Trump won this new district by 20, he won the old one by 18, so it's not that different. This area used to be represented by a lot of conservative Democrats (Mike McIntyre for example), but unless one of them wins a primary (which given that Wilmington is in the district, probably won't happen), this district is a Safe R seat, maybe going to Likely in a 2018-style wave and Lean in a 2008-style wave. (Also, this 7 has all of the famous Bladen County that had the electoral fraud in the 9th district)
NC-08: R+8 to R+5. So to preface, 8 and 9 are twins so to speak in modern-day NC apportionment. Historically speaking, 8 was the Fayetteville district with the rural swath of the state between Charlotte and Fayetteville, and 9 was the suburban Charlotte district (think Mark Harris and Union County). When the GOP took over, they slashed Cumberland County (Fayetteville) into 2 and divided it between 8 and 9. The new district becomes much more bluer and gettable, as it has all of Cumberland back in it, and is only Trump +9 as supposed to Trump +15. Someone like Larry Kissell could do well if he wanted to run here again. This district could have been drawn worse. As of now, I'd say it's a Likely R seat. Hudson would still likely win.
NC-09: R+8 to R+7. This district, being the flip-side of 8, takes in the southern band of the Sandhills region, and stretches into metro Charlotte. McCready would probably win this district both times. Metro Charlotte is trending D, and a Dem that can keep up the strength in the ancestrally Democratic eastern parts of the district (read: Richmond, Anson, Scotland, Hoke, Robeson) could do well here, so someone like McCready. The counter-argument to this is, of course, Union County, which is a huge GOP bulwark against Democratic inroads, as well as Moore County (a small central NC county that is very Republican as well, though not all of it is in the 9th). Given that this is Trump +10, I'd say it's Likely R for a seat. Dan Bishop would probably still win, but if Mark Harris or some other nutcase wins the primary, this could get competitive real fast.
NC-10: R+12 to R+19. Western North Carolina historically is the most Republican part of the state. McHenry is going to be safe from any Democrat, his only threat is a primary. Adding a bunch of High Country NC in the Northwest may not make him very happy, but in the interest of fair maps, this district is tied with 5 as the worst one on this map. The only community of interest I can see for either of them is partisanship, these are very Republican areas. They should have cut these two seats north-south, as has been done before, and not east-west as we are seeing here. This seat is Safe R.
NC-11: R+14 to R+9. One of the biggest partisan shifts on this map towards Democrats, the 11th historically has been the flip-side district of the 10th and has historically included all of Buncombe County (the city of Asheville, a very liberal enclave), as well as some ancestral Democrats in the far western part of NC. When the GOP took over in 2010, they cut Buncombe in half and we got Mark Meadows (the Freedom Caucus bomb-thrower) as a result. This new map puts all of Asheville back in the 11th and stretches further a bit to the north and east, which makes sense as rural NC is losing population. The Republicans who drew the map chose to go east into Polk and Rutherford Counties (two arch-Republican counties that historically were in the 10th), instead of north towards Watauga County (which is Democratic-leaning and if drawn into it, would have made it a Trump +13 district instead of Trump +17. This district is one that could potentially get competitive with the right candidate (probably a Blue Dog), but for a Democrat to win, they would need to supercharge turnout in Asheville (which I guess is probably easy enough if Meadows is their representative), as well as hold back the reddening of those ancestral Democratic areas. Currently Safe R, but could become competitive if the right candidate jumps in.
NC-12: D+18 to D+17. This district hasn't changed much, as it is the Charlotte-based seat that is the successor to the shoestring AA seats of the 90s and 00s. Alma Adams should be fine and only has to worry about a Democratic primary here, given Republican urban and suburban bleeding. Thus, I think this new seat is Safe D.
NC-13: R+6 to R+18. This seat is the converse of NC-06, which shared a crack of Greensboro. Now that this is unpacked, this seat becomes a much safer R seat but again drawn rather badly. My guess is that they wanted to shore up Democrats in 4 with Chatham and Orange. Anyway, this seat is Safe R.

Finally, the breakdown.
Most likely, this seat will elect 5 Democrats and 8 Republicans, an improvement over the current 3-10 map. It should be near 6-7, but in a good year, this number or even 7-6 can be attained.
NC-01: Safe D, Likely D in R wave year
NC-02: Safe D
NC-03: Safe R
NC-04: Safe D
NC-05: Safe R
NC-06: Safe D
NC-07: Safe R
NC-08: Likely R, Lean R in D wave year
NC-09: Likely R, Lean R in D wave year
NC-10: Safe R
NC-11: Safe R, Likely R depending on candidate
NC-12: Safe D
NC-13: Safe R
Therefore, we can see Democrats could gain an absolute maximum of 8-5 in the delegation in a good enough year.

THE END