Australian Election Prediction Contest (user search)
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Author Topic: Australian Election Prediction Contest  (Read 3965 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: August 17, 2010, 11:36:31 PM »
« edited: August 20, 2010, 07:08:23 AM by Fmr Gov. Polnut »

National 2PP vote

ALP - 51.4%
Coalition - 48.6%

Seats per Party, nationally.
ALP - 77
Coalition - 69
Independent - 3
Green - 1

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales 51.6-48.4
Victoria 56.3-43.7
Queensland 53.2-46.2
Western Australia 54.6-45.4
South Australia 54.3-45.7
Tasmania 57.1-42.9
ACT 62.8-37.2
Northern Territory 55.5-44.5

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt*

Western Australia
Canning
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne*

Queensland
Bowman
Brisbane
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Leichardt
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Paterson
Riverina
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - there is a rock-solid 30% Liberal vote in the ACT - and they only need 33% for the seat...

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Batman, VIC
Closest Seat - Canning, WA
Highest Swing - NS
Random Upset - Melbourne to the Greens
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2010, 01:58:54 AM »

Labor won't win Sturt and the Libs won't win Eden-Monaro... I really have doubts about them losing Bennelong too.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2010, 05:45:26 PM »

The federal party in Queensland isn't called the LNP, is it?

It is, the Liberals and the Nationals formally merged.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2010, 01:03:02 AM »

There really isn't a Federal Party, each person is a member of the Party in their State or Territory.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2010, 07:46:59 PM »

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. Tongue AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

It's decent, I don't really like the whole thing of the Greens getting 11.5% but only 0.66% of the seats though.

Think of it this way, like the Lib Dems in the UK - the Greens vote is spread throughout the country, while the LibDems have areas of strength like down in Cornwall, the Greens are only now getting traction in higher-educated, more affluent areas of the major cities - so seats like Melbourne, Grayndler and Sydney are being targeted.

The regional thing allows parties like the Nationals to get a 1/3 of the vote of the Greens (4%) and have 7x the number of seats (assuming you don't count Wilkie as an 'Independent Green'.

It's the problem of being broadly popular, without being able to claim a 'heartland' of your own. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2010, 08:27:02 PM »

LNP - 8.9% total nationally (but only in QLD though)
NAT - 3.9% total nationally (but not in QLD)
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