KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

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Kobach might enter tomorrow.

if so he could easily get the nomination and win the state

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Dems are gonna win this race

yeah democrats are a real slam dunk in a state that hasn't elected a democrat to the senate in a century

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Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

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Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

I don't think it's winnable even with Kobach, but let's stop pretending that Senator Kris Kobach would be any more dangerous than Senator Roger Marshall in terms of voting record.

We literally just beat Kobach 2 years ago. We can do it again this year.

yeah but that was a state race as opposed to a national race and in a D+9 night as well


edit: D+9 night not race

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Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

I don't think it's winnable even with Kobach, but let's stop pretending that Senator Kris Kobach would be any more dangerous than Senator Roger Marshall in terms of voting record.

We literally just beat Kobach 2 years ago. We can do it again this year.

yeah but that was a state race as opposed to a national race and in a D+9 race as well

the difference between state and federal in Kansas is probably wider than any other region/state of the country besides New England.

This. People should be happy this voter fraud lunatic is not able to get in the senate

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Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

I don't think it's winnable even with Kobach, but let's stop pretending that Senator Kris Kobach would be any more dangerous than Senator Roger Marshall in terms of voting record.

We literally just beat Kobach 2 years ago. We can do it again this year.

yeah but that was a state race as opposed to a national race and in a D+9 race as well

the difference between state and federal in Kansas is probably wider than any other region/state of the country besides New England.

This. People should be happy this voter fraud lunatic is not able to get in the senate

fun fact: Kansas Democrats party switched in droves in 2016 in order to drive out Brownback GOPers, and they bolstered the ranks of the moderate wing of the KS GOP considerably, in what amounted to a counter-reaction to a state where the fulcrum has long been in the palm of the moderate GOP.  Kansas has a natural GOP majority, but the GOP itself is split in two longstanding factions.
Kansas in practice is a three-party system - conservative Rs, moderate Rs, and Democrats.

Very anecdotal but my roommate from kanas is very liberal but him and all of the other liberal people he knows (he lives in the KS area) are registered Democrats to do just what you said, helping moderates get elected

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The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

the tread above discusses how disastrous that is for Republicans in Kanas

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The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

Wow how dare a moderate state have a moderate ruling party!

Moderate? Kansas voted for Trump by 20 points.

So is that why VT MD and MA have democratic governors

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https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1250533789731893248?s=21

did Marshall's campaign release any numbers

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Democrats should make an effort to donate to Kobach.
I would donate to the f**ker just to help him win the GOP nomination.

That's quite a risk. Even though that would give Dems a small chance to win the senate seat, most liekly, another crazy guy will be elected to the senate.

Kobach is going to have the same voting record as any other “non-offensive” Republican Senator like David Perdue or Joni Ernst. There’s no real downside to him winning the primary.

Maybe, but the zealotry and the willingness to flat out lie in such an aggressive manner is what really puts him apart. Then give him a senate seat so he has a national platform to put out more disinformation about voting, and you have one of the most effective spokespersons for voting suppression.

As I've said before it would be a winnable race if he was the nominee but that is certainly playing with fire. Yes, he lost in a STATE level race two years ago, but it was only by five points in a D+9 year following an extremely unpopular republican governor.

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5/23 Debate Rankings
1. Kris Kobach - thanks to being a career politician, he is a great debater. He attacked Marshall relentlessly and was barely mentioned - he received a few subtle jabs about losing in 2018, but that was it. Gave his conservative credentials and all of his skeletons weren't mentioned to speak of.
2. Susan Wagle - gave clear, concise answers and successfully tied her time in the Kansas Senate to how she'd do in the U.S. Senate.
3. Dave Lindstrom - Showed himself to be an outsider with the competence to serve. Had a strong closing statement calling out the weaknesses of the Top 3.
4. Roger Marshall - Gave pretty good answers but was on the defensive for most of the debate, rarely went on the offensive against Kobach. Seemed a bit nervous. Was attacked for allegedly trying to get off the Ag Committee for Ways & Means as well as not being a Trump ally on trade.
5. Bob Hamilton - as I said yesterday, I was really pulling for him, but he gave bumbling answers throughout and proved he isn't ready for primetime. When asked how he planned to get onto the Senate Ag Committee, he said: "You just gotta show me how to do that...how do you begin."

This.

Koach very preformed well, especially. If nominee (toss up).

Marshall was pretty milquetoast was always on the defensive which is not a strong side to be on.
If nominee (likely R)

Lindstrom did ok, a bit forgettable.If nominee (likely R).

I'm sorry but the amount of times Hamilton verbally dropped the ball was astounding. If nominee (Lean R).   

Susan Wagle struck me as the Elizabeth warren of this race, stuck to the issues and came off as very pragmatic. If nominee (Titanium R)

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https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

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> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.

Most of your points are fair, but I'm not a fan of the argument that Bollier could win because Kelly did. No one is saying Maryland, Massachusetts or Vermont could go to Trump.

Nobody is saying MD,MA, and VT will go Trump because he's down like 25+ points there. Again, KS is different he's not doing well there

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@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.    

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

Do you understand that you have just argued exactly why Democrats want Kobach?

Dear god I hope kobach is the republican nominee one day. That would make things really easy

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Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

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Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

It could very well matter in terms of what happens in the Republican primary, yes.

He almost lost his primary too in 2014 to a nutjob.

That cycle, the Republican establishment smothered so many other whack job primaries
(AL, KY, MS, TN)

to avoid another 2010 disaster (NV DE CO). If that race happened in 2010 he would have been done.

He strikes me as the type of establishment figure hamilton and Kobach would love to run against. I think anyone that cares about this endorsement was probably going to go for marshall anyways

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are we going to see a winner by tonight?

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https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1303401426496913409?s=20

some people see this race as likely R, but clearly senate republicans disagree

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Duty and Country, which is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, is dumping $7.5 million into the open Kansas Senate race between GOP Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier, James reported, a major sign the race in the red-leaning state is competitive.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2020/10/05/trumps-hospitalization-upends-the-campaign-790807

the Republicans wouldn't do this if it were a likely R or safe R race like many suggest here

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This is behind a paywall so I can't see details, but...

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1314291612760125440?s=20

Unless I see the crosstabs, I'm not believing it. I think Marshall wins by high single digits.

apparently this is a Republican internal?