When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races? (user search)
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  When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races? (search mode)
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Author Topic: When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?  (Read 5820 times)
Lognog
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,398
United States


« on: August 06, 2020, 12:10:51 AM »

My guesses for the northeast:

Connecticut: Blumenthal 2016
Maine: Mitchell 1988(!)
Massachusetts: Markey 2014
New Hampshire: Shaheen 2014
New Jersey: Menendez 2012
New York: Schumer 2016
Pennsylvania: Casey 2012
Rhode Island: Reed 2014
Vermont: Leahy 2016

In 2018 how did dems not win the white vote in CT MA???

Also Casey might have won the white vote in 2018
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Lognog
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,398
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 11:16:29 AM »

Part 1

AL: Shelby 1992 (won every county sans... Shelby)
AK: Gruening 1962
AZ: DeConcini 1988
AR: Pryor 2008
CA: D vs R probably Feinstein 2012, Kamala won it in 2016 but against another D. 2018 Feinstein lost it to De Leon as his coalition was latinos + GOP protest votes.
CO: Udall 2008 (if Obama won it so did him)
CT: Blumenthal 2016
DE: Biden 2008
FL: Nelson 2006
GA: Zell Miller 2000
HI: Hirono 2018
ID: Frank Church 1974
IL: Durbin 2008
IN: Evan Bayh 2004
IA: Harkin 2008
KS: if Kansas was so white George McGill narrow wins essentially matched the white vote then him in 1932. If not William Thompson 1912 (Kansas had a popular election although the legislature ultimately picked the winner)
KY: Wendell Ford 1992
LA: John Breaux 1998
ME: George Mitchell 1988 or Angus King 2018 cause he's a de facto D
MD: Mikulski 2004 seeing the county map but not sure. But she won them in 1998.
MA: Warren 2018. She underperformed but MA is very white so a 20 point win doesn't equal a white vote loss.
MI: Levin 2008
MN: Klobuchar 2018
MS: John Stennis 1982
MO: Thomas Eagleton 1974

I disagree with you here:
Gravel 74
Murphy 18
Carper 18
Stabenow 12
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Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,398
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 11:20:57 AM »

Part 2

MT: Bacus 2008
NE: Nelson 2006
NV: Reid 2004
NH: Shaheen 2008 (6 points probably good enough to win whites in NH, 2014 she only won by 3 so she probably lost it)
NJ: Bill Bradley 1984 (Menedez most likely barely lost in 2012)
NM: Bingaman 2006 is a certainty to have won a majority. Udall 2008 I'm unsure. Heinrich probably got a plurality win in 2018 because Gary Johnson played spoiler.
NY: Gillibrand 2018
NC: Robert Morgan 1974
ND: Conrad 2006
OH: Metzenbaum 1988
OK: Boren 1990
OR: Wyden 2016
PA: Casey 2006. Unsure about 2018. Exits have Casey + 2 but they over sample college whites
RI: Whitehouse 2018
SC: Fritz Hollings 1986
SD: Tim Johnson 2008
TN: Gore 1990
TX: Bentsen 1988
UT: Frank Moss 1970
VT: Leahy 2016, Sanders 2018 (de facto D)
VA: Warner 2008
WA: Cantwell 2018
WV: Manchin 2012 (not 2018, exits oversample college whites)
WI: Kohl 2006
WY: McGee 1970

WV is such an overwhelming white state, Manchin had to have won the white vote
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