2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

IMO:

Top Targets

AZ-01 Schweikert
AZ-06 Ciscomani
CA-13 Duarte
CA-22 Valadao
CA-27 Garcia
CA-45 Steel
IA-03 Nunn
MI-10 James
NE-02 Bacon
NJ-07 Kean
NY-03 Santos
NY-04 D'Esposito
NY-17 Lawler
NY-19 Molinaro
NY-22 Williams
OR-05 Chavez-DeRemer
VA-02 Kiggans

Second Tier Targets

CA-03 Kiley
CA-40 Kim
CA-41 Calvert
CO-03 Boebert
IA-01 Miller-Meeks
IA-02 Hinson
MT-01 Zinke
NY-01 LaLota
PA-01 Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Perry
TX-15 De La Cruz
WI-01 Steil
WI-03 Van Orden

Reach Targets/Worth Investment

AZ-02 Crane
FL-13 Luna
FL-27 Salazar
MI-04 Huizenga
MO-02 Wagner
NC-11 Edwards

I wouldn't put Kim, LaLota, or Fitzpatrick as first tier targets since they all won by double digits, or close to double digits. Calvert's seat didn't end up being quite as promising as it looked when the count started. Still, though, all four deserve to be firmly in that second tier.

Wouldn't dream of contesting Garbarino or Lee's seats when they both just won by around 20 against non-token opposition. If the Dems want to rebuild their strength in Long Island and Florida, they're going to need to take some baby steps first. Focus on D'Esposito, Santos, and maybe LaLota first in LI and target Luna in FL. Anything past that is probably folly at this point.

[wesmoorenerd]

Thought this was interesting:

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1655991546942980123

Poor list that was clearly whipped up for the sake of "balance." You cannot seriously tell me you'd rather be Valadao, Bacon, Molinaro, or Schweikert than Caraveo or Vasquez.

[wesmoorenerd]

Rule of thumb on any internal: move the margin a few points (I generally think 4-6) in favor of the opposing party.  Conclusion: it's a close race, which I think is no surprise.

I generally don't like the practice of trying to unskew internals -- rather, I think they should broadly be given less credence than public polling.