OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

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Still Titanium R.

Calling this race "titanium R" is a complete misuse of the term. It's likely R.

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!!!!!! Awesome.

https://twitter.com/lizmwalters/status/1353785683371028482

Local elected official hypes up local race. More at 11.

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Interesting how the 3 retiring GOP Senators are from states <10% in 2020

This is an interesting observation. Considering Johnson and Grassley could conceivably head for the exits as well, we may see five out of the six Republicans in states Trump lost or won by less than 10 retiring. Does not bode well for Republicans' chances at holding every one of those seats, nor does it inspire confidence in their ability to take back the Senate in '22.

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With Jordan out, Mandel and Renacci are probably the potential landmines left for the Rs. Stivers/Turner/LaRose would be heavily favored.

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This could be a race. It'll take an implosion from Vance that we haven't quite seen yet and an improved national environment, but this is getting close to "flips before NC" territory.

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https://twitter.com/plunderbund/status/1545424761311870983

This is legitimately so atrocious it has to be some kind of paperwork quirk or error, right?

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Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

Interesting. So someone like Elissa Slotkin is likely polling well because they've been forced to defend their brand for a few cycles now, while someone in a traditionally Likely D slot (maybe someone like Jennifer Wexton) is used to not doing as much, and losing a bit of ground?

It would seem as though swing voters/competitive district "moderates" seem to be okay with separating their reps from the national party/Biden right now, while possible voter apathy is higher in bluer districts?

Wexton probably isn't the best example, since she was recently elected and defeated an incumbent in order to do so. I figure we're talking about people like Dina Titus, Sanford Bishop, and Joe Courtney -- longtime incumbents who haven't seen a competitive race in ages but who no longer have the luxury of resting on their laurels.

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Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.