California House Races Megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

Chavez isn’t going to make it to the top 2. He’s lost momentum, his fundraising is weak, and both local and national Republicans have opted for Harkey instead.

Chavez has certainly gone downhill and could go further down before the actual election itself, but if it were to be held today, smart money would be on Chavez making it in, even if it was close. Not a lot of good polling has been done, but there's only been one poll in which he hasn't made it in. His numbers have gone down, yes, but I'm doubting that it'll be enough to knock him out of a spot in the top two.

Although I certainly wish it does, a D-D GE there would be fantastic as a Democrat.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm increasingly worried about 48. Rohrabacher losing support and endorsements is good for the Democrats IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. There's a good chance that Rohrabacher losing support will lead to Republicans switching to Baugh and furthering the chances of a Democratic lockout.

[wesmoorenerd]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

[wesmoorenerd]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

You think Kim fails to make the runoff to face Cisneros in November?

No, Kim is absolutely favored to make the runoff, but I'd say she's more likely to miss the runoff than Cisneros at least.

[wesmoorenerd]

At this point, I'm pretty confident Denham, Knight, Rohrabacher, and Harkey are the underdogs to win their seats. Harder, Hill, Rouda, and Levin are very strong challengers with monstrous fundraising numbers. Kim and Walters are 50/50 to win their seats, at best. Porter is strong (although the fundamentals don't favor her quite as much as the others) and while I think Cisneros is a B-lister the fundamentals still have a good chance of putting him over the top. That's six seats the Dems have a good chance of winning right there.

That's not even considering the outside chance of Valadao being ousted in a Democratic seat, or the eternally weak McClintock falling to a strong Morse, or Nunes getting caught in one too many scandals as he is prone to do, or Hunter's ethics problems catching up with him, or, hell, even LaMalfa falling after being outraised Q2.

The CA GOP is about to hit rock bottom. Only Calvert, Cook, and McCarthy are 100% safe.

[wesmoorenerd]

Is Navy veteran Gil Cisneros in good position to win CA-39? Hacienda Heights has many veterans due to its population skewing older.

Yeah, it’s Tilt D

Cisneros is the weakest of the six big Dem challengers (the other five being Harder, Hill, Porter, Rouda, and Levin) but the fundamentals of the district still make him a possible slim favorite, 50/50 at worst.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why exactly is there some weird fantasy that Carbajal is vulnerable this year? Is he just a really bad candidate or something?

[wesmoorenerd]

So SurveyUSA has a poll of CA-50: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter leads Najjar 47-39% with 42% of voters saying the charges against Hunter are politically motivated. 41% of voters say that the charges make no difference while 11% say they are more likely to vote for him because of the charges.

Jesus f***ing Christ. Republican voters really are shameless. Who would be more likely to vote for a corrupt man that lies out his ass, throws his own wife under the bus, and openly insults the American military?

[wesmoorenerd]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

Um, Rick Saccone is not vulnerable. He's in PA-18 which is not competitive it's 96% White.

(I agree with you that McClintock is not vulnerable, but that was a terrible argument.)

This isn't the midwest. The majority of California rural whites despise Democrats, which is why Republicans outnumber Democrats by a good number in this district. Which is what I should have said.

McClintock is strongly favored, but he's not invulnerable. He's a pretty weak incumbent that doesn't even live in his own district. It's Likely R.

Only three CAGOP incumbents are completely safe this year: Calvert, Cook, and McCarthy.