UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Conservatopia]

This is just another of those stupid stories written for people who are interested in politics but don't have a clue.

A couple of months ago it was two Labour MPs about to defect to the Tories.
Last month it was some Tories ready to defect to Reform UK.
Last week it was a group of Red Wall Tories planning on defecting to Labour.
This week it's Corbyn starting a new party.

Next week we can look forward to Layla Moran joining the Ulster Unionists or some such nonsense.

[Conservatopia]

The interesting thing and something that lots of people said when it first came out all appears to have come from leaks within the Government.

None of the main leadership contenders seem to have been implicated, so it would probably be one of their supporters. Who benefits from bringing on a leadership contest this year?

This might be a bit tin foil hat but whenever the media says "Downing Street sources" rathet than "sources at No 10" I basically assume it comes from No 11.

I'm not saying that it's Rishi himself doing the leaking but it's well known that the staff of Nos 10 and 11 have been briefing against each other for the last 18 months, maybe longer.

[Conservatopia]

Papers this morning:

Telegraph: Johnson losing Tory support
Sun: Fury as BoJo dodges questions over bash
Mail: Is the party over for PM?
Express: Don't blow it now PM!
Times: Say sorry or doom us all

And that's just the Tory papers...

[Conservatopia]

Consensus on the Tory side seems to be that he did about as well as could be expected and maybe bought himself sone time but staked it all on the Gray enquiry - which is likely to be critical of him and that that will end him.

[Conservatopia]

An interesting thing to note is that Boris is the first Tory leader in a long time to have no Praetorian Guard in Parliament that is willing to back him to the hilt. Even Major and May had their arch-loyalists. This is probably in part due to the fact he spent eight years out of Westminster when he was Mayor. Whilst Boris does have his allies (Burns, Dorries, Malthouse, Patel, Shapps) they are mostly in government positions and not on the backbenches (where he needs them) and the fact that he does not belong to any party faction is another strength that is now working against him because he can only rely on personal connections rather than factional allies like Thatcher or Major could.

[Conservatopia]

If you enter that YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus and select the new boundaries, then Labour gains in London compared with Electoral Calculus's notionals are:

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

I wonder what the MP for that seat is thinking. If he's worried about losing his seat he might put pressure on the PM to step down.

[Conservatopia]

The average age of the "pork pie plotters" is under 40.
This isn't men in grey suits it's kids in nappies.

[Conservatopia]

The key difference between Yes, Minister and real life is that in Yes, Minister they don't go about saying "This is just like in Yes, Minister".

[Conservatopia]

That has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever seen in British politics.

If he became an independent I could understand but to actually join Labour? Truly bizarre.

I wonder how the Corbynistas online will react.

[Conservatopia]

Slight aside here but the Norway Debate is one of the most fascinating debates to be read in Hansard. The Wikipedia article is useful for background info on the various actors in it too.
If my memory serves me correctly Amery was one of four MPs who did not applaud Chamberlain after Munich. Churchill was one of the others and I think a NatLib and a NatLab were the other two.

[Conservatopia]

Why is the 2019 intake so utterly chaotic- compared to say the Labour 97 of Tory 2010 intake?

Probably a combination of 2019 being a snap election (thus necessitating the hasty selection of candidates), a general decline in the quality of people putting themselves forward to be a candidate and, as a purely Tory thing, attempts to broaden the social base from which Tory candidates are drawn leading to an larger number of weak candidates getting through.

Plus the media has fawned over them and their constituencies while the Party has always made a big fuss over them and their opinions which has probably inflated their egos somewhat.
Furthermore the pandemic has meant they haven't gotten to blend with their older colleagues as much so less cohesion too.

[Conservatopia]

The Labour Party is a chore you endure, the Conservative Party is a club you enjoy.

And if you don't enjoy it you just shoot the bartender.

[Conservatopia]

It's been touched upon briefly with some radio pieces with former defecting MPs (Lord Howarth apparently played a role in helping with this one- he too defected from the Tories to Labour) but I'm not sure anyone has really covered how big a change this is.

For MPs their staff are paid for by the taxpayer but are largely working for MPs they agree with politically; so you face having to re-hire an entirely new team. You lose your entire network & the support you have from your own intake (MPs like children are often friends with those elected who join in the same year) and you lose most of the influence or alliances you have with the wider political movement.

It is for this reason why it's rarer for Labour politicians to defect; we hate our movement, but it is our movement which dominates your life in a way that Conservative politics doesn't. The Labour Party is a chore you endure, the Conservative Party is a club you enjoy. If you compare the speeches from the departing Labour MPs who joined TIG with the departing Tories this is very clear- it was a genuine emotional detachment. Despite the Dennis Healey quip the Labour Party really is a socialist Sunday school.

Anyway it's a big move and a big decision; and well his seat certainly played a role it wasn't as grubby as previous ones (which were done for Government jobs & safe seats after MPs faced de-selection)

It can also be very difficult if you have a butler...

No - you just have to start calling him Comrade Butler.

[Conservatopia]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

[Conservatopia]

I really don’t like the way that supporters of the prime minister try to basically belittle the reporting of these stories it’s ridicule e.g. it was only a birthday cake, it was only a few drinks, he was only there for 10 minutes, it was harmless.

The fundamental issue is that he lied about it, at the despatch box.

Agreed - with all these events it hasn't been so much about the parties themselves per se. It's about the principle and the constant, ongoing lying that this Prime Minister, this government and this Party have engaged in over (at least) the past 2 years.

[Conservatopia]

I was nicked by the Met once in the Houses of Parliament.
Fun times.

[Conservatopia]

Looks like Dishy Rishi is implicated in this one, too. Its not been a great few days for him.

I see Sunaks fate as becoming one of those "prime ministers we never had" as opposed to prime minister.

Vastly less interesting than Portillo, Heseltine, Butler, Benn, Bevan, Bevin, Mosley, Powell, Corbyn, Clarke, Healey...

Not to mention Gaitskell, Kinnock, Smith, Miliband.....

Or Swinson...

[Conservatopia]

A minor detail: we have our first Minister from the 2019 intake. Andrew Griffith is the unpaid Parliamentary Under Secretary for Policy at the Cabinet Office, to support Steve Barclay and free up room for him.

Generally what determines if a new MP becomes a minister or becomes Lobby Fodder? What's the actual selection process ?

Cronies.

[Conservatopia]

Apparently this whole non-apology thing is a strategy.  The thinking is that the more people hear Starmer and Savile in the same sentence the more it will damage Starmer's reputation.

Now this strategy might be effective but if true it's incredibly low.

[Conservatopia]

Apparently this whole non-apology thing is a strategy.  The thinking is that the more people hear Starmer and Savile in the same sentence the more it will damage Starmer's reputation.

Now this strategy might be effective but if true it's incredibly low.

Polls show that Starmer's ratings have improved in the last week.

If anything what happened yesterday might only augment that.

Fwiw when polled last week I answered Starmer Approve, Boris Disapprove.  Undecided on GE VI.

I think Starmer has handled the Savile allegations against him with good grace.

Appointing Mark Spencer as Leader of the House, especially given that he’s still under investigation for the potentially sectarian firing of Nus Ghani seems a tad crass.

The Leader of the House has responsibilities for maintaining the standards of MPs behaviour. When Spencer’s own behaviour is in question, it seems suspect to give him oversight in such a role (and open Johnson up to further embarrassment if he has to dismiss Spencer for this behaviour down the line).

The PM doesn't have the balls to sack anyone.

[Conservatopia]

I would imo not be shocked if Patel looks at reforming the Met- partly as a way of screwing over the Mayor of London but also because while she is a reactionary Patel has shown a willingness to challenge the traditional HO thinking.

Set up a commission, go back to 32 borough policing under a new ‘police London’ badge and create a national police force directly accountable to the Home Sec that deals with counter terrorism, serious fraud etc

It would at least be change!

In effect turning the NCA into a British FBI?

[Conservatopia]

Boris would just lie and say he has no knowledge of the Queen's death and that Starmer and Savile did it anyway.

[Conservatopia]

Today I learned from our glorious leader of the existence of another international agreement between Russia and Ukraine known only as the Minksk Agreement.

I think it was minx - obviously a reference to Carrie.

[Conservatopia]

Williamson was so bad that people now look at Grayling and say "hey Grayling was okay actually".

[Conservatopia]

It's an open secret, but hasn't quite reached into the point where it is common knowledge - and that's the stage at which even Carter-Ruck cannot protect you.

I'm doing my bit by telling everyone what Boris Johnson's favourite wine is.  It's tignanello - in 2019 he was recording talking about how many bottles he drank a week.