How will Obama overcome an Ohio and Florida loss?

[auburntiger]

Assuming he takes Iowa and New Mexico, which were both Bush states by less than a point, He needs either Colorado or Nevada. AT this point, I'm not sure which of the latter 2 states is more likely to flip.

How ironic would it be if he took Nevada but not Colorado (269-269) and loses the popular vote, but because of the Dem congress, Obama is voted in.
For the sake of the country not tearing itself to pieces, I'd prefer to have a clean victory for either McCain or Obama.

Also, Democrats are NOT going to win Virginia. You can quote me on that.

[auburntiger]

Assuming he takes Iowa and New Mexico, which were both Bush states by less than a point, He needs either Colorado or Nevada. AT this point, I'm not sure which of the latter 2 states is more likely to flip.

How ironic would it be if he took Nevada but not Colorado (269-269) and loses the popular vote, but because of the Dem congress, Obama is voted in.
For the sake of the country not tearing itself to pieces, I'd prefer to have a clean victory for either McCain or Obama.

Also, Democrats are NOT going to win Virginia. You can quote me on that.

I wouldn't write VA off right now.

Oh I don't doubt it will be a swing state, but in the end VA will be ours.

[auburntiger]

These are the tossups I can see going into election day:

First Tier Battleground:
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Second Tier Battleground: election will have been decided if these states are truly in play
Missouri
Virginia
Florida
New Hampshire
Michigan
Iowa
wisconsin

third Tier: for these to be truly in play will result in a mini-landslide in the 320-330 range:
North Carolina
Minnesota
New Jersey
Tennessee
Montana
Oregon

[auburntiger]

He'll need at least 2/3 of the western states (NV, NM, CO), he'll need to pick up Iowa. Michigan is looking good for us at the moment, and since OH and FL are more Republican than MI, that would be a devestating loss even if Obama carries PA. Here's what could happen:

Ironically, the EV total would be the same as 2004, 286-252 with a few states switched around.

[auburntiger]

the good news for us is that Obama has a much lower ceiling than does Hillary.

With Hillary, Arkansas, Nevada, West Virginia, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa are all in danger of switching...and recent polls indicate Missouri, Kentucky, and North Carolina could be too close for comfort.

with Obama, West Virginia and Arkansas are 100% safe GOP. Florida is increasingly looking non-competitive, which I hope it will stay that way...that's 27 HUGE EV's. If Crist is the VP, Florida is a lock. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will all be competitive with Obama, wheras hillary would lock up all three.

 and yes, you all can forget VA and NC switching to Obama. Also, all this hogwash about Obama being competitive in Alaska, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas are Democratic pipe dreams.

the only red state that Obama does better against McCain than Hillary is Colorado, which may indeed switch, but even that's not a sure thing especially with its GOP record of POTUS voting.

I don't understand however, with some of the maps showing Michigan colored blue, indicating a sure McCain victory...that is far from certain.

I can honestly see just about anything happening, a 2000-like scenario, even a blowout on both sides.

>90% = absolutely, positively, zero chance that the other candidate will break through
>60% = only in a blowout, or some unforseen circumstances, will these states go for the other candidate
                      if it's a 50-50 election, both of these categories are solidly one way.
>40%  = these states could possibly switch, if the election is clearly swinging one way.
>30% = ever-so-slight advantage to one candidate
gray = completely up in the air