Decision '08: McCain/Huckabee vs. Warner/Richardson

[auburntiger]

Well, one thing's for sure, NC will not vote Dem in '08, it's not even a swing state. I'd flip WV. Edwards on the ticket in '04 didn't help Kerry at all.

This would be a very interesting race. Of course, I would vote for McCain mainly because of Huckabee, but I definitely think it could go either way.

Here's what I think, take it or leave it:

It's like 2000 in reverse. Warner wins 271-267. At this point, I will give the edge to Warner. After the midterms, we'll probably be able to see more reliable information.

[auburntiger]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

[auburntiger]

Well, Mark Warner '08, I really hope you are right about WV, which puts five more EV's into our basket

I'm still not willing to give CO however. lol. I guess it's just b/c I love the state so much. Richardson will make a positive impact on Warner, but keep in mind that McCain is running against WARNER, NOT RICHARDSON.

I guess to answer your question before, McCAin will outduke Richardson, but it won't have anything to do with Richardson, it'll be because of Warner's lack or experience, which would be an accurate claim.

I think if Richardson was on the top of the ticket, CO would certainly be more likely to go DEM, but McCain is the LAST Republican I see losing the state.

[auburntiger]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

I think you may be right about West Virginia, which is good for the GOP (puts 5 Ev's into our basket. yay!) but I still think it's too early to call CO for Warner.

Now, I agree that if it's Allen vs. Warner, CO could very well go Dem.
Richardson will make a positive impact for Warner, and would certainly flip NM. However, with the strong candidacy of McCain, I'm not willing to give up CO, which btw is my favorite place in the world.

I guess to answer your question, McCain CAN outduke Richardson in the SW, but remember McCain's running against WARNER ... NOT Richardson.

I still think McCain can flip NH. W won it in 2000, and only lost it by 1 against Kerry. Just my opinion.

New Hampshire is trending Democratic -- time to put this one in the Warner column. Democrats will see their Governor reelected and Rep. Charlie Bass (R) may be headed to defeat.

In 2004, Colorado elected a Democratic State House and Senate and the elected a new Democratic congressman and Senator. In 2006, Colorado will likely elect a Democratic Governor and another new Democratic congresman.

Do you think Huckabee would help McCain carry Tennessee?

Well TN does lean Republican, so even if Huckabee wasn't on the ticket, I think TN would be very close, but still go to McCain; kind of like MN for the Dems.

[auburntiger]

First of all, great analysis by MarkWarner08 in your opening ramarks.

I am going to pick McCain.  Personally, I believe Warner's pesidential credentials, or perceived presidential credentials, are vastly overblown.  I simply do not believe America will put national security and the nation's future into the hands of a one term Governor from Virginia.

Both Vice Presidential candidates are credible, and do not detract from the ticket.  When it comes right down to it, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Vice Presidential candidates tend not to have a great influence on how people ultimately vote.  Richardson, although a good VP pick for Warner, is not going to swing the southwest to the Democrats with McCain as the Republican nominee.  McCain as the Republican Presidential nominee will trump Richardson as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in the region.

McCain's reputation and experience will win the day.

Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for the Republicans for the past two elections, and McCain will be the one to bring it into the Republican column.

Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well.   

McCain/Huckabee          273
Warner/Richardson        265

I agree with this map. No dooubt McCain still holds on to CO and NV. Though i'm divided in my opinoin on how WV would vote. Mark Warner '08 thinks it's a lost cause for Dems like KY, where I still think it would be winnable for Warner

[auburntiger]

That seems like a reasonable map although I'm a little skeptical about Michigan's chances going GOP. THey seem to be making some gains there, and teh governor's race will likely be a GOP pick-up, and the senate race will likely be very close as well. MI seems to be moving our way as it was alot closer in '04 than people thought. My guess is MI '08 could be the FL of 2000

[auburntiger]

like McCain. It's all about perception. He is seen as someone who's willing to cross party lines and vote with the Dems on some issues although his voting record is more conservative than he appears to be.

There was a poll out there last week or so saying that 44% of voters perceive McCain as moderate. Picking Huckabee would be the best choice ever, and he's my favorite too.

[auburntiger]

I've got a new thread started for Pataki/Richardson, but here's my map again.

Interesting. I never thought I'd see Oklahoma go Democratic and  Iowa go Republican. Otherwise, great map.

Why do you think Pataki would beat Richardson in Iowa? I'd think that if Montana is going Democratic, Iowa would probably go that way too.

Let's continue this on my other thread "Try this one"

WHOA you're a Republican now?!?!?