County That Most Closely Mirrors State Results?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Which county in your state usually gives the best indiciation of how the state will go?  In New Jersey, I think most residents would tend to agree with me that Bergen is definetly the county that forecasts overall state results best.  (Exception 2000)

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.

What about Stark County? Doesn't it have a bellwether reputation?

For New Jersey, I'd actually say Burlington more than Bergen. Bergen was for a while more Republican than the state as a whole (voting for Franks over Corzine in 2000, for example), and it is heavily influenced by which way the New York metro is swinging.

But don't think that Bergen's trend from Republican to Democrat on par with how the state is going have a huge influence?  I think the states numbers are greatly affected by Bergen because it is incredibly populated and can swing either way.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Burlington is a bit too Republican leaning to serve as a good bellweather for New Jersey.  Bergen used to be too Republican, but it's much closer now to mirroring the statewide results as a whole.  (Corzine won it by 13.4, a bit better than his statewide; Menendez won it by 8.3, almost imperceptibly worse than his statewide.)  If I had to pick, I'd pick Bergen.

As a bonus, Bergen has a little bit of every kind of New Jersey town (save for the shore resort type): the northern super-rich commuter exurbs, the small towns like Ridgewood (which has a beautiful little "downtown" area), the ethnic Italian suburban-style towns of south Bergen, even the "big city" towns along the Hudson, like Fort Lee.  It's a great cross section.

I'll also throw Gloucester County into the mix.  Recently, Gloucester has been pretty close to approximating statewide results.  Corzine won it by 10.2, Kerry won it by 5.3, Menendez won it by 7.8, and Lautenberg won it by 13.4.

That spread is what allows it to serve as a bellweather, there really aren't many counties like it, especially not in NJ.